浩铭Bit

BTC is very strong. It fell for two days, but yesterday it rose back to the starting point. The rebound began from the mid-line of the downward channel. Currently, it has broken through the daily level downtrend line. In the 4-hour level, there is both volume and price. From the data perspective, the premium index is rising, and the open interest is also increasing, but the funding rate is negative. This indicates that this surge is not due to long positions in the futures market or short positions being liquidated, and the liquidation prices for those who shorted are quite far away. Therefore, the price rise has not resulted in a decrease in open interest. This morning's pullback, accompanied by a rapid decline in the premium index and a quick rise in the funding rate, along with a slight decrease in open interest, indicates that some spot holders are exiting at this high level, and the price breaking through the uptrend line has led to short liquidations. During the pullback, bulls are gradually bottom-fishing. Currently, the price is in a situation of low volume pullback. The K-line structure shows that it has just pulled back to the previous high near 108500. This position serves as support at the 4-hour level and overlaps with the 4-hour rising trend line. Theoretically, going long at this position is completely fine, but considering that there is more data tonight, if the price further pulls back to around 108000, it will be a good entry point for long positions. As long as the price does not fall below 107700 today, I believe the trend is bullish, and there is a high possibility of reaching 110000.

After breaking through the small downward channel of BTC, it has turned into a consolidation phase. Currently, it has broken through the small consolidation range with volume. From the premium index perspective, this is driven by the futures market. If the spot market follows later, this consolidation phase may turn into a continuation of the upward trend, continuing to challenge above 110,000. Currently, the bullish trend is relatively strong, and there are no conditions for shorting. The daily level resistance area is at 108,888, along with bearish liquidity above around 109,000. At this position, observing the volume situation, one may consider short positions.

June 27, 2025 Market Analysis:
The market has been difficult to navigate this week, as we cannot go long or short effectively. The market is fluctuating, making it easy to lose positions without any change in points. In a volatile market, it is only advisable to take positions in one direction; if losses occur, it will be just once.

BTC Perspective:
Looking at the market, yesterday the price encountered resistance after touching 108,000 and broke below the ascending channel that had been maintained for two days, subsequently forming a double top before beginning a correction. The correction is not significant; the current pullback is a natural retreat. For the price to continue rising, it must first create a higher high. In the short term, it needs to break above 109,000 to maintain an upward trend, but in terms of volume, it is currently in a state of reduced volume increase.

From the premium index perspective, BTC's rise in recent days has been completely driven by the futures market, as the spot market has not seen many buy orders come in. The premium index has remained basically unchanged from the 24th until now, although it was in a declining state until yesterday, yet the price still increased, and open interest has also risen significantly. This can only indicate that the futures market is aggressively buying while the spot market remains in a wait-and-see state. This unhealthy situation is difficult to sustain unless it breaks new highs.

Currently, the funding rate is all green, and there are still many short positions. In the short term, this provides ample bearish liquidity for price increases. The liquidation heatmap also shows that after liquidating the bearish liquidity around 108,000 yesterday, there has been a significant increase in bearish liquidity near 110,000 today. However, at the same time, there has also been a considerable increase in bullish liquidity around 105,000, making it hard to determine where the short-term liquidation might occur. Generally speaking, the futures market's upward drive is very unstable; it could push up to 110,000 to liquidate liquidity and then continue downward to liquidate liquidity in the 105,000-103,000 range. It is also possible that the current high is just a short-term peak.

I certainly hope for a pullback because that would allow for healthier subsequent rises. Participants in the spot market cannot buy at this position unless there is a pullback in price or a breakout to new highs.

So the current view is not to go long unless the price breaks above 109,000, and to take a light short position.

June 24, 2025 Market Analysis:

BTC Viewpoint:

Last night was truly a night of both bulls and bears being slaughtered. There was a wave of false breakdowns, and then it reversed back. From the chart, BTC has already broken through the short-term downtrend line, and it was a volume-driven breakout. Now it has reached the previously mentioned level of 106,000. The question is whether the market has reversed; I think it might not be the case. Looking at the open interest, premium index, and ETF inflows, last night's violent surge might have been caused by shorts getting liquidated. There were genuine spot purchases, and although the premium index has risen sharply, ETF inflows are minimal. Thus, we cannot rule out that the spot market might only serve as a short-term booster.

Currently, there are too many shorts, and there is still a significant amount of short liquidity around 107,500 that hasn't been cleared. The previous bottom wasn't cleared, and now this situation appears at the top. Has everyone stopped trading contracts??

There is a possibility of further stretching during the day. Of course, as I mentioned before, the liquidation map is somewhat ineffective currently, so my viewpoint remains to wait and see. If you have short positions, you can hold them with a small amount. I do not recommend chasing long positions; you can wait for a pullback near the downtrend line. Entering long positions again without breaking that level would be relatively safer.

ETH Viewpoint:

ETH is not doing well. It is still being pressed by the trend line. However, I chose not to short it here; instead, I chose SOL. SOL is also being pressed by the trend line, similar to ETH, but obviously, SOL is weaker. Although SOL has broken through a relatively strong support-resistance switch (weekly), it is still under pressure from the downtrend line above. Thus, this could likely be a false breakout. If the price drops below 142, I would choose to increase my short position in SOL. Of course, if you currently have ETH short positions, you can continue to hold them, but make sure to set a stop loss if it breaks out with volume.

Is it really back? Last night there was a real V-shape, the pancake directly broke through all resistance, those who shorted the pancake got hurt, let's see if there are shorting opportunities on the right side, a false breakout and then a direct drop to short. Take responsibility for your own trades.

Fake break? Let's try Lo again, I chose Ethereum, don't be afraid to follow me, do your own trading and take responsibility for yourself.

Ah, this…I guessed the v-trend right…short down, long up

🥰I am not a teacher, nor do I want to be a KOL, because I make money by speculating in cryptocurrencies, and writing analysis is just to consolidate the trading system

🚀 June 23, 2025 Market Analysis:
BTC Perspective:

Yesterday's sharp decline in BTC likely caused many people to incur losses, and I am no exception. The long position I bought at the bottom was stopped out after I woke up. Currently, BTC is showing a rebound trend after last night's sharp decline, but it is still in a bearish trend at the daily level. 106,000 remains the dividing line between bulls and bears; as long as this area is not surpassed, it remains a bearish trend. Yesterday's drop reached the bottom of a major descending trend line. After breaking through, it quickly recovered above 100,000, raising the question of whether this is a false breakdown.

From the liquidation map, we see a confusing situation again. Based on yesterday's downward momentum, the ideal drop position should be around 9,700, after liquidating the dense bullish liquidity below. Unfortunately, the price did not drop as expected, possibly due to a large amount of spot buying. The premium index also shows that last night's violent drop did not lead to a decrease in the premium index; instead, it increased, indicating a healthy upward signal. However, we cannot rule out the potential impact of war factors that could lead to another liquidation of the bullish liquidity around 97,000, followed by another V-shaped reversal.

Currently, too many people are shorting during the day. Historically, such downward movements are generally bullish, but now there are too many short positions. The funding rates are negative, and the open interest is increasing, indicating that there are still many people shorting. Therefore, the probability of an upward movement during the day is very high. The upper dense chip area, the bull-bear conversion point, and the 0.618 position all point to a range around 130,000-103,300, which is also near the descending trend line. This position offers a relatively high cost-performance ratio for short positions, while the support below is around 99,500 at a small-level consolidation point.

ETH Perspective:

The analysis method is consistent with BTC. The initial support on the lower level is around 2,172, while the bull-bear conversion point above is around 2,300.

Given the current market situation, I will share my views. Currently, as soon as I open the plaza, I can see many KOLs shouting to short and calling for a rebound to short.

Although a few days ago I was also shorting from the peak to the bottom, that was based on a reasonable analysis of the market. The previous surge was entirely due to long positions in the futures market, and such an unhealthy rise can trigger a downward trend with just a bit of news, so the decline is also expected.

However, looking at the current market and data, blindly shorting will lead to severe losses.

First, looking at the market, BTC is currently in a triangular convergence area, overall leaning towards a bearish trend. For BTC to restore a bullish trend, it must return above 106,000 and stabilize there. Last night, it quickly recovered after touching the lower edge of the triangular convergence area, indicating strong buying pressure. The premium index also shows that the premium index has not changed significantly since its previous high, basically maintaining a constant level. This indicates that the previous decline was mainly caused by long positions being closed and short positions being opened, and there is no phenomenon of large funds fleeing from the spot market.

The long and short positions are currently maintained at a relatively stable level, and long positions have been decreasing while short positions remain unchanged. Logically, the price should decline, but it has not dropped as expected; instead, it has remained at a corresponding level. The premium index is also maintained at a corresponding level, indicating that while long positions are being closed, corresponding spot players are slowly bottom-fishing, albeit not significantly.

The liquidation map also shows that I originally planned to enter long around 102,000 last night, but there was an abnormal phenomenon where the liquidation could not be cleared.

So the final conclusion is that I will not re-enter short positions at this point, but rather observe, and if the price breaks through the range, I will chase long positions.

Whether from naked K or from a data perspective, I have a premonition that this place is very likely the bottom position in the near term, and the main force seems to be slowly accumulating positions, apparently brewing the next big market movement. Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility of another news event directly clearing the liquidity of long positions around 102,000.

If someone says that there will be a crash, I can only say that the news is for the retail investors to see.

#鲍威尔发言 #以色列伊朗冲突

Boring market, I just told you yesterday not to place orders at this position, I didn't say to go long, right? I have been holding the short position since yesterday, isn't that uncomfortable? Just respecting the objective data.

This wave of decline is not caused by spot selling, but more by the long positions being liquidated in the futures market. There were very few people shorting last night; if they weren't shorting at key levels to make gains, then it basically involves a degree of speculation. Currently, both shorts and longs are starting to re-enter the market. What I want to say is whether these people can take a good look at the market. Is this the mindset of inexperienced traders? In this position, which is neither up nor down, it’s better to sleep. Although there was a sharp decline today, from the data perspective, one cannot blindly be bearish; it might just rally in the evening.

Market Analysis on June 17, 2025:
It seems that everyone doesn't like to see market analysis and prefers to see me show off my positions 😂. Market analysis is indeed quite dull, but the long and short points have been genuinely shared, and we have really put in the effort. Without further ado, let's keep it simple and share.

BTC Viewpoint:
Due to the impact of the news this morning, both BTC and ETH have dropped significantly. Without further elaboration, yesterday's ETH short position directly yielded over 100 points in profit, which is better than those internal teachers making hundreds of points on BTC. Since distancing myself from the internal profit-making, I've gradually improved.

Today, there are likely no trading opportunities left. A sideways market is probably starting, and it is a sideways upward trend. The same viewpoint as yesterday: if BTC cannot stay above 107,777 on the daily chart, it remains a bearish trend. It has already dropped below, and there are no more opportunities to get on board. For those wanting to continue shorting, you can only wait around 110,000; there are currently no opportunities for low longs.

ETH Viewpoint:
ETH is very volatile. Although it follows BTC, it is still quite weak. If it cannot stay above 2,680 on the daily chart, it remains in a bearish trend. The focus is still on rebound shorts, but there are currently no opportunities during the day. The viewpoint is the same as BTC: a sideways upward trend, and it is estimated that this time it will break 2,700.

Summary: All positions that needed to be closed for profit have been closed today, so there are no points left to speculate on. The focus for the day is entirely on rebounds, with high-level sideways upward movement.

Some people may think this is influenced by the news

But I generally don't pay attention to the news, and as I always say, someone will always see the news before you

Trading based on the news will definitely lead to losses

Yesterday BTC lost, but does it matter? A few hundred points small stop loss, ETH directly woke up and doubled the position, doing it for real, the entry was for adding positions, taking half of the profit, the rest I directly see ETH starting with 1, okay?🤷‍♂️

Go all out with real guns and ammo, let's aim for profit instead of just avoiding losses, okay?

The short position has already been entered, a small position can be added, and if it goes further up, then add more.

🚀Market Analysis for June 16, 2025:

BTC Perspective:

The weekend market has been very boring, so weekends are generally a time for learning; no trading. After two days of weekend fluctuations, liquidity has accumulated on both the upper and lower sides. Currently, we are in a position that is neither up nor down. One can choose a high-sell low-buy strategy during the fluctuations, but it's too exhausting, and one might accidentally incur losses.

On a larger scale, the trend is bullish, while on a smaller scale, the intraday trend remains bearish. The weekend premium index has significantly declined after fluctuations, indicating that the current market is mainly driven by long and short positions in the futures market. If the daily line stabilizes above 107777, it will turn from bearish to bullish. Therefore, the intraday trend is still predominantly high short, with positions around 106888 for high shorts, and around 103888 for low longs. Set small stop-losses of a few hundred points for breakouts or breakdowns.

ETH Perspective:

ETH is even more boring. Currently, the larger scale is fluctuating, and the smaller scale has a bearish intraday trend, so high shorts are the main strategy. For the intraday, first look at around 2666; at this position, one can try a short position. For low longs, start trying around 2457; small stop-losses of a few tens of points are sufficient for breakouts or breakdowns.

Conclusion: The market is fluctuating; intraday high shorts are still relatively safe. The positions given have good risk-reward ratios; just set stop-losses. Trading is about risk-reward ratios rather than trying to trade every day. Control your hands; the market is boring. When there are no good risk-reward ratios, it's better not to trade. Making a few hundred points on BTC or a few tens on ETH has no real significance.

Spot has started to flow out, shorts have started to short, those with long positions can take some profit.

🚀June 13 Market Analysis:

BTC Viewpoint:

In the article I posted the day before yesterday, I reminded my brothers that the current trend looks grim. Indeed, yesterday saw the confirmation of a hanging man candlestick, and after a final wave of false bullishness last night, the market began to decline without looking back. Brothers, do you still have any bullets left? If you didn't buy the dip this morning, please be sure to wait for an opportunity if you still have bullets.

Intraday Viewpoint: After yesterday's accelerated decline, BTC just hit the key support level on the daily chart. This chart was drawn for my brothers last week, but strangely, the premium index has actually risen, which is very unusual. Could we see a V-shaped reversal again? I'm quite optimistic, as this situation is too abnormal. The key today is whether it can rebound to 104585. If it can stabilize at this level on the 4-hour chart, then it remains bullish. However, if the premium index starts to decline with the market this evening, then the market cannot continue to rise. Keep an eye on the support levels below at 103104 and 101411.

ETH Viewpoint:

ETH is really in a bad shape, directly falling over 400 points. Unfortunately, the short position was closed too early. Currently, ETH needs to stabilize at the 4-hour level of 2542 to continue rebounding; otherwise, we are still looking at the support level below at 2413.
#加密市场回调

Do you still have your bullets? Every major market movement either results in being trapped or running out of bullets, which is likely the situation for most people 🤧

The day before yesterday, my opinion was bearish.

To be honest, I didn't think the daily close looked good the day before yesterday, and I don't think there's anything wrong with me; I just hope that when people pay attention, they will choose wisely, not just follow any random charlatan. Last night’s long position was also expected; I took profit right at the highest point. This morning, given the situation, are you still hesitant to enter? Anyway, I've entered long again 💢