Given the current market situation, I will share my views. Currently, as soon as I open the plaza, I can see many KOLs shouting to short and calling for a rebound to short.
Although a few days ago I was also shorting from the peak to the bottom, that was based on a reasonable analysis of the market. The previous surge was entirely due to long positions in the futures market, and such an unhealthy rise can trigger a downward trend with just a bit of news, so the decline is also expected.
However, looking at the current market and data, blindly shorting will lead to severe losses.
First, looking at the market, BTC is currently in a triangular convergence area, overall leaning towards a bearish trend. For BTC to restore a bullish trend, it must return above 106,000 and stabilize there. Last night, it quickly recovered after touching the lower edge of the triangular convergence area, indicating strong buying pressure. The premium index also shows that the premium index has not changed significantly since its previous high, basically maintaining a constant level. This indicates that the previous decline was mainly caused by long positions being closed and short positions being opened, and there is no phenomenon of large funds fleeing from the spot market.
The long and short positions are currently maintained at a relatively stable level, and long positions have been decreasing while short positions remain unchanged. Logically, the price should decline, but it has not dropped as expected; instead, it has remained at a corresponding level. The premium index is also maintained at a corresponding level, indicating that while long positions are being closed, corresponding spot players are slowly bottom-fishing, albeit not significantly.
The liquidation map also shows that I originally planned to enter long around 102,000 last night, but there was an abnormal phenomenon where the liquidation could not be cleared.
So the final conclusion is that I will not re-enter short positions at this point, but rather observe, and if the price breaks through the range, I will chase long positions.
Whether from naked K or from a data perspective, I have a premonition that this place is very likely the bottom position in the near term, and the main force seems to be slowly accumulating positions, apparently brewing the next big market movement. Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility of another news event directly clearing the liquidity of long positions around 102,000.
If someone says that there will be a crash, I can only say that the news is for the retail investors to see.
