Ghost Quinn Notes

#美联储利率决议即将公布

🚀$SPCX From the IPO pricing of $135 to now above $200, the market cap has soared to a whopping $2.6 trillion. At this level, investors aren't just buying current profits; they are banking on the future narratives of Starlink, Starship, defense contracts, xAI, Cursor, and even space data centers.

The narrative is massive, and the valuation is stretched.

Right now, SpaceX's short-term strength is driven by several factors:

① Initial circulating supply is quite low
② Strong demand at IPO
③ Hot options trading
④ Anticipation of inclusion in the Nasdaq-100
⑤ Musk's narrative naturally attracts attention

So it can continue to be strong in the short term, possibly even rally higher.

However, starting from late July / August, the logic will gradually shift.

What we've seen is a "buying frenzy" phase, but it will transition into a "earnings verification + unlocked supply" phase.

The period from September to December will see a more intense window of ordinary lock-up shares being released.
By the first half of 2027, we will also face psychological milestones related to longer lock-ups and Musk's lock-up period.

Adding to this, today's Fed meeting indicates that the market hasn't fully relaxed. QQQ and BTC are both showing weakness, suggesting that risk appetite hasn't fully restored. If the Fed leans hawkish, high valuation and high volatility assets are likely to see their valuations compressed.

My understanding is straightforward:

In the short term, watch the liquidity.
In the mid-term, focus on earnings and unlocks.
In the long term, see if SpaceX can truly convert the narratives around Starlink, Starship, and AI into cash flow.

First, analyze the structure, then observe the price.📌

What do you all think? Is it heading for a rally or a pullback?

$SPCX $BTC
#SpaceX #美联储何时降息？ #GhostQuinnNotes

⚠️ The next crucial factor for BTC isn't the price, but the timing.

$BTC $ETH $SOL $BNB

At the start of June, BTC briefly hit around $60,000.
By mid-June, it bounced back to around $66,000.

I'm primarily looking at 6 key phases:

1️⃣ | June 17–18
⚠️ Fed / Interest Rates / Press Conference
First, let's check the Fed's tone.
If it's hawkish, risk assets might get squeezed again; if not so hawkish, BTC could have a chance to test the upper resistance again.
This part is just about short-term spikes, not confirming a major bottom.

2️⃣ | June 18–July 3
⚠️ $70,000 / ETF / Shallow Bottom Confirmation
If BTC can hold steady at $68,000–$70,000, and ETF funds flow back in consistently, then around $60,000 could signify a shallow bottom.
If it keeps failing to break above $70,000, we need to be cautious about this repair.

3️⃣ | June 24–28
⚠️ CME / Futures Settlement / Liquidation
Around June 26 is the CME BTC futures settlement window.
It might not determine the trend, but it's likely to amplify volatility.

4️⃣ | July 14–31
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Bank of Japan
I'll be particularly cautious during this period.
If BTC hasn't held above $70,000, and there's no clear ETF inflow, mid to late July could see a second dip.
Observation zones: $62,000–$64,000, $58,000–$62,000, $52,000–$56,000.

5️⃣ | August 12–September 18
⚠️ CPI / FOMC / Major Bottom Window
If we can't break above $70,000 consistently, I'll pay more attention to $52,000–$56,000.
It may not reach there, but it looks more like a major bottom observation area.

6️⃣ | October 13–November 25
⚠️ Historical Cycle / Major Bottom Confirmation
If the previous structure hasn't cleared out, this could be a larger cycle confirmation window.
BTC's bottom often takes time, capital, and sentiment to materialize, not just a few weeks.

💫 My Judgment:

June: Repair window.
Mid to late July: First danger window.
Mid-August to mid-September: Major bottom observation window.
Mid to late October: Cycle confirmation window.

⚡️ Three Key Levels:

⚡️ $68,000–$70,000: Can the repair hold?
⚡️ $58,000–$62,000: Can the shallow bottom hold?
⚡️ $52,000–$56,000: Is the major bottom forming?

Until funds flow back in, any rebound is just a bounce.
Until the structure stabilizes, any repair isn't a reversal.

First, focus on timing, then events, and finally how the funds choose to play out.

#BTC #ETH #fomc #cpi #ETF

$牛来 How have you all been these past couple of days? Missing out is the best gift. Keep your hands in check—survivorship bias will make you feel like you missed a great opportunity, sweetheart. First, just stay alive. Opportunities won’t be only once; take your time and wait. Don’t go for the first bite of meat—the first bite of meat is very dangerous. People can die, you know.
$BTC $ETH

⚠️ When everyone is in FOMO, I actually want to say this:

A rise doesn’t mean the risk has disappeared.

More often than not, when the price rises until everyone starts believing, that’s when the risk becomes more expensive.

🚀 $BTC surged from 64,000 to over 70,000, topping at 72,000+
🔥 $ETH jumped directly from 1,900 to 2,300+

Now everywhere people are shouting:

“ The bull run is back! ”
“ If you don’t act now, you’ll miss out!”

But don’t rush yet.

This round of上涨 does have support:

🇺🇸 The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase, and U.S. Treasury yields fell;

The SEC is advancing a new Crypto regulatory framework;

The White House convened Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, the SEC, and the CFTC;

The CLARITY Act continues to move forward;

Plus, a large number of shorts have been liquidated.

So, this isn’t just air-rising.

But

Good news is real—yet it doesn’t mean any price right now is a good price.

The newly released FOMC minutes are also still somewhat hawkish:

Some people supported rate hikes as early as July;

Many members believe inflation won’t continue to fall, and policy could still tighten in the future;

The Fed has even started worrying about overvaluations, AI financing, and hedge funds’ high leverage.

These risks haven’t disappeared just because BTC broke above 70,000.

And don’t forget:

The BTC perpetual market broke 70,000 first, and spot followed afterward.

There’s real money here—and there’s also clearly forced short-squeezing.

A squeeze can push the price up fast, but it can’t replace new incoming capital forever.

So the one question I truly want to see now is:

After everyone starts believing in the bull market again, can 70K actually be held?

If BTC pulls back to 69K–70K and can still hold,
with ETF inflows continuing, ETH continuing to take the baton, and stablecoins starting to expand,

Then I’ll believe the market really has changed.

But if you forget all the risks from the past few months just because of one big bullish candle,

That isn’t investing—it’s just finding excuses for emotions after prices rise.

The easiest time for the market to make people mistake things is usually not when they’re afraid, but when:

Other people are making money, and suddenly you feel like if you don’t get on now, you’ll never have another chance.

Don’t rush.

If a real bull market is coming, it won’t only give you a few hours today.

📌 When prices rise, watch the risk; when prices fall, watch the value

$BNB $SOL

#BTC #ETH #sol #FOMO #FOMC

🐳 Don’t be impulsive. Wait until your emotions stabilize before you decide—otherwise you’ll die a miserable death. First, stay alive. There aren’t that many overnight fortunes. When you start thinking you’ll get rich overnight, Death is right behind you.$BTC $ETH $SOL

$牛来 I always have a hunch that this meme coin will become a divine coin—maybe it’ll even become the #1 in the Chinese-speaking circle. Of course, it’s still too small right now; it could die anytime 🤪

$牛来 Is this going to go find Mom together with $BTC ?

$牛来 This token is really something—just got into Alpha, and this market is directly skyrocketing. Kinda feels mystical 😂

💥💥💥 Is the bull market back???
$BTC 24H once surged +7%, with the contract high hitting 70450
$ETH even more aggressive: in the past 24H, the high was up +18.45%, and it once jumped to 2,336
Overall, total trading volume in the entire crypto market over the past 24H increased by nearly 90%.

What’s interesting is that the newly released FOMC minutes were actually hawkish: some supported rate hikes as early as July, and many members believe inflation isn’t falling—so tightening could continue

Turns out the market didn’t crash; instead, ETH kept rallying

Behind the scenes, several forces are resonating:

U.S. Treasury yields falling + U.S. dollar weakening + the SEC pushing forward new crypto rules + the White House promoting CLARITY + capital returning + short-squeeze dynamics.

Next, we’ll see:

Whether BTC can turn 70K from resistance into support
Whether ETH can hold above 2200 and regain a foothold above 2300

If both of these happen, this rally won’t be just a bounce
$SOL
#FOMC会议纪要 #BTC突破7万大关

Gold has dropped below 4000.

Silver is also continuing to slide, hitting a low of 58.17.

$XAU $XAG $XAUT
#白银跌破60 #黄金失守4000

Tonight's real anchor is gold.

With gold breaking below 4000, it shows that the pressure on this precious metal line hasn't been fully released.
Silver is dropping even harder, which is to be expected. It's naturally a high-volatility asset; when gold weakens, silver usually amplifies the volatility.

The pressure in the market is quite clear:

The US dollar is still strong.
Interest rate expectations are still weighing down.
Ahead of the PCE data, funds are reluctant to bet on a rebound in precious metals.

For silver, I'm looking at:

Support: 58.20 / 57.60 / 56.20 / 55.00
Resistance: 58.80 / 59.60 / 60.20 / 60.80

For gold, it's even more critical:

Support: 3980 / 3950 / 3900 / 3850
Resistance: 4000 / 4025 / 4050 / 4075

Right now, the most important thing isn't whether silver can bounce back immediately,
but whether gold can reclaim the 4000 level.

If gold can't get back above 4000, the bounce in silver is likely to be weak.
If gold can quickly recapture 4000, then we’ll see if silver can return to the 58.80–59.60 range.

Tonight's trade is crucial:

Gold is the anchor.
Silver is the elastic.
Until the anchor is stable, the elasticity will only increase.

After silver broke below 60, I'm actually more focused on whether gold can hold the 4000 level.

Today, the correlation between gold and silver is quite obvious.

Silver dropped from above 60 all the way down to around 58.8–59.0, and the volatility has noticeably increased.
Gold also retreated in sync and is currently very close to 4000.

$XAG $XAU $XAUT
#白银跌破60 #黄金4000

I won't be looking at silver alone.
Because silver itself has too much elasticity and can easily be swayed by emotions on short-term trades.

The key factor is gold.

If gold can hold around 4000, it indicates that the primary trend in precious metals isn't completely broken.
But if gold starts to effectively break below 4000, then the downside potential for silver can't just be viewed as a normal pullback.

For silver, I'm eyeing a few levels:

Support:
58.80 / 57.60 / 56.20 / 55.00

Resistance:
59.60 / 60.20 / 60.80 / 61.60

For gold:

Support:
4000 / 3980 / 3950 / 3900

Resistance:
4025 / 4050 / 4075 / 4100

This market phase, I prefer to see it as a 'recalibration of the gold-silver ratio and volatility.'

It's not surprising that silver is dropping faster.
It is inherently the more elastic one among the precious metals.

Moving forward, I'm mainly watching two things:

First, whether there's buying support near 4000 for gold.
Second, whether silver can climb back above 60.20–60.80.

Gold is the anchor.
Silver is the spring.

The stability of the anchor determines whether the spring will rebound or continue to be pressed down.

Silver just broke 📉60.
Gold is still holding at 4000 for now.

These two levels are crucial today.

$XAG $XAU $XAUT
#xagusdt #黄金4000 #白银跌破60

Silver breaking 60 isn’t just a round number.
It signifies that the bullish sentiment from the recent bounce has been pierced.

Gold holding 4000 isn’t just any support level either.
If gold loses 4000, the fluctuations for silver below could get ugly.

Right now, the pressure is clear:

The dollar is still strong.
US Treasury yields are still weighing down.
Fed rate hike expectations have been revived.
After the drop in oil prices, the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East is also cooling off.

So, this isn’t just about the technicals for silver,
but rather a macro and precious metals repricing.

For silver, I’m eyeing a few key levels:

Resistance above:
60.20 / 60.80 / 61.60 / 62.50

Support below:
59.30 / 58.80 / 57.60 / 56.20

Gold is even more crucial:

Resistance above:
4050 / 4075 / 4100 / 4150

Support below:
4025 / 4000 / 3980 / 3950

Right now, we’re only focusing on two points:

Can silver reclaim 60.80–61.60?
Can gold continue to hold 4000?

Silver breaking 60 is the trigger.
Gold holding 4000 is the bottom line.

How these two levels move next basically decides tonight's rhythm for gold and silver.

The Fed's decision has landed.

This time, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

$BTC $ETH $SPCX

On the surface, it's neutral.

But what’s really got the market on edge isn’t the ‘no rate hike’ but the details coming after.

First, the dot plot leans hawkish.

Out of 19 officials, 9 expect at least one more rate hike this year, while only 1 predicts a rate cut.

This isn’t the same as the market’s prior hopes for a ‘wait for rate cuts’ logic.

Second, inflation expectations have been raised.

The Fed has increased its projections for 2026 PCE and core PCE.

This indicates that they’re more concerned now about inflation not being under control.

Third, Warsh’s first meeting had a clear style:

Less commitment.

Less talk about easing.

Let the market interpret the data itself.

So every upcoming CPI, non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and US Treasury yield changes could lead to re-pricing.

Post-meeting, the market reaction was straightforward:

US Treasury yields climbed.

The dollar strengthened.

US stocks faced pressure.

BTC dropped from around 66,000 back to the 64,000 range.

This isn’t a coincidence.

BTC is no longer just a crypto asset; it’s also being priced based on macro liquidity.

I’m primarily watching a few levels:

66,000
The first repair line post-meeting; if it can’t reclaim this, short-term pressure remains.

68,000–70,000
The bounce confirmation zone; it needs to stabilize here to qualify for further recovery talks.

60,000–62,000
Shallow bottom defense line; watch for support on any retests here.

52,000–56,000
Main bottom observation zone; it might not reach this, but keep a close eye if macro pressures persist.

Upcoming key dates:

June 24–28
CME BTC futures settlement window; volatility might spike.

July 14
US CPI; will determine if the market continues to trade on ‘higher rates for longer’.

July 28–31
FOMC + Bank of Japan; the next macro pricing window.

August 12 – mid-September
New CPI and September FOMC; could become a main bottom observation window.

My judgment is simple:

This time, the Fed isn’t a disaster.

But it reminds the market:

Don’t bet too early on rate cuts.

Don’t mistake a bounce for a reversal too soon.

Until capital returns, a bounce is just that—a bounce.

Until the structure stabilizes, a repair isn’t a reversal.

First, observe the events.

Then, watch the prices.

Finally, see which side the capital stands on.

#BTC走势分析 #沃什首次FOMC维持利率 #CPI #ETF

This needle is long and thin, where is it headed??? $BTC $XAG $XAU #沃什首次FOMC维持利率

SpaceX just blasted up to 216 today, even hitting close to 230 during the session.

Honestly, what stands out to me isn’t that the "company suddenly got better," but rather:

Market sentiment has returned,
There's not much liquidity,
For a stock like SpaceX, once it starts climbing, the shorts and those missing out find it hard to keep their cool.

My observations are:

135 is the issuance/cost zone, a comfy spot,
190–200 is the first round of reasonable re-evaluation,
Above 216 we’re already seeing some hype,
225–230 is short-term resistance,
If it can hold above 230, we might see a continued short squeeze,
But if it drops below 205, we need to watch out for a sentiment pullback,
If it can’t hold 195–200, this chase for highs might start to unwind.

So, I’m not looking to chase long around 216, nor am I going to short it directly.

At this point for SpaceX, it’s not just about whether it’s “expensive” or not, but looking at:

Low float + IPO hype + Musk’s narrative + overall market risk appetite.

I want to ask everyone this:

Do you think SpaceX is currently in the first wave of a historical asset re-evaluation,
or is it a large emotional short squeeze created by low liquidity?
#spcx #SpaceX $SPCXB

🚀Did we just hop on a SpaceX rocket?
SpaceX shot up from 135 to 200 in no time, that pace is just insane.
This isn't just a regular pump; it's like the whole market is scrambling for a ticket to "Musk's future empire."
This price action is no ordinary stock rally; it’s a mix of hype, liquidity, chip scarcity, and IPO fever that’s blown the charts wide open.

A lot of folks keep saying:
Valuation is too high.
Losses are too big.
Musk's story is too grand.
SpaceX isn’t worth this price.

I don’t completely disagree with these points.

But the thing is, the market isn’t really debating “overvalued or not” right now; it’s all about trading:

1. The largest IPO in the world;
2. Extremely low float;
3. Rapid growth in Starlink users and revenue;
4. The super narrative of SpaceX + xAI + space computing;
5. Institutions, retail investors, and index funds are all vying for chips;
6. Shorts want to hammer it down, but there aren't enough chips to do so.

The most surreal part is right here:

Bears talk valuation,
Bulls talk future,
But right now, the market is all about the chips.

That’s why the more people short it, the higher it goes.
Because this phase isn’t about dissecting earnings reports; it’s about “who can grab a ticket.”

Of course, I don’t think this is a time to just mindlessly chase.
Now that we’re nearing 200, it’s definitely not a comfy buy zone. The real test ahead will be the lockup expiration, earnings reports, Starship progress, xAI’s cash burn, and whether valuation can be validated by revenue.

But I have to say, this SpaceX wave is really fascinating.

Right now, I most want to ask everyone:

Do you think this SpaceX wave is the beginning of a historically super asset,
or is it just a massive short squeeze driven by IPO excitement and low float?

#马斯克预测SpaceX年收入万亿美元 #SPCX #SPCX $SPCXB

Has #SpaceX首日开盘超IPO价格29% successfully pre-ordered? Participating in the strongest IPO ever is quite an interesting move, $SPCX $SPCXB .

The 2026 World Cup opener is coming, Mexico MEX🇲🇽 vs South Africa RSA🇿🇦. Who's down to ride this hype together? Let's take a small position and go live with some real trading. Gotta trade gold and silver too, and don't forget to catch the World Cup action! #2026世界杯开幕 $XAU $XAG

Iran doesn't talk, Vance doesn't go, but Trump has extended the ceasefire

What torments people the most is not the crash, but the news and market both going crazy

The news is a mess
Gold and silver just won't behave and move in one direction

Silver first dropped to 75.48, then bounced back to 76.83
Gold first dropped to 4672, then bounced back to 4722

Doesn't it feel like that kind
Where you say break up, but still sneak a peek at each other's social media

XAGUSDT first look:
Resistance: 76.75-76.90 / 77.10-77.25 / 77.55-77.80 / 78.20-78.55
Support: 76.30-76.15 / 75.95-75.75 / 75.58-75.40 / 74.95-74.70

XAUUSDT first look:
Resistance: 4718-4726 / 4738-4750 / 4768-4785 / 4800-4815
Support: 4700-4690 / 4678-4670 / 4650-4635 / 4615-4600

This is not a comfortable market
This is the kind that specifically makes people want to curse right after they chase it

Do you think this wave is to repair a position before going down,
or is it preparing to wash out the shorts first?
$XAG $XAU $XAUT #xagusdt

Rise 📈 or fall 📉?
$XAG $XAU $XAUT #xagusdt