G a a h
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G a a h
Markets Analyses
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G a a h
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BullishMayer-Puell Valuation Composite #bitcoin has reached historically low levels 🔥
This indicator combines the Mayer Multiple and Puell Multiple metrics with historical percentiles to capture overbought/oversold signals — integrating valuation perspectives from both mining and technical analysis.
Throughout the history of #BTC the indicator has fallen below Undervalued region only twice, in 2012 and 2015.
This pattern has just repeated itself in the 2026 bear market ⚠️
#technicalanalyst #BitcoinReclaims$65K #CYCLE $BTC
This indicator combines the Mayer Multiple and Puell Multiple metrics with historical percentiles to capture overbought/oversold signals — integrating valuation perspectives from both mining and technical analysis.
Throughout the history of #BTC the indicator has fallen below Undervalued region only twice, in 2012 and 2015.
This pattern has just repeated itself in the 2026 bear market ⚠️
#technicalanalyst #BitcoinReclaims$65K #CYCLE $BTC
#bitcoin in oversold territory relative to the S&P500 since end of 2025
BTC/SPX Ratio Z-Score also shows a bullish divergence similar to one seen during the previous bear market of 2022.
We use the 365-day log Z-Score of BTC/SPX ratio to measure how many standard deviations Bitcoin’s relative value against the S&P500 is from its own 365-day moving average.
This indicator uses the LOGARITHM of ratio, not the raw ratio, because #BTC has appreciated by orders of magnitude more than the S&P500 over same period.
By using the logarithm of ratio, the oscillator becomes much more balanced and genuinely bidirectional, with calibrated overbought/oversold thresholds.
#SPX #technicalanalyst #Macro $BTC
BTC/SPX Ratio Z-Score also shows a bullish divergence similar to one seen during the previous bear market of 2022.
We use the 365-day log Z-Score of BTC/SPX ratio to measure how many standard deviations Bitcoin’s relative value against the S&P500 is from its own 365-day moving average.
This indicator uses the LOGARITHM of ratio, not the raw ratio, because #BTC has appreciated by orders of magnitude more than the S&P500 over same period.
By using the logarithm of ratio, the oscillator becomes much more balanced and genuinely bidirectional, with calibrated overbought/oversold thresholds.
#SPX #technicalanalyst #Macro $BTC
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Miner Cycle Stress Composite #bitcoin hits new lows in 2026 in Undervalued territory
This metric combines the Puell Multiple (miner revenue via issuance multiple) with the inverted Miner Capitulation Index
Since the two metrics use different cost/cash flow assumptions, their alignment provides a stronger confirmation of cycle extreme than either metric analyzed in isolation.
Historically, both metrics collapse together during periods of stress and #BTC bottoming (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024)
For only time in Bitcoin history, the indicator hit 0.00 in 2015 when BTC plummeted from ~$300 to ~$160 — about a 50% drop in less than a week.
This same behavior has just repeated itself in 2026.
#Onchain #CYCLE #miners $BTC
This metric combines the Puell Multiple (miner revenue via issuance multiple) with the inverted Miner Capitulation Index
Since the two metrics use different cost/cash flow assumptions, their alignment provides a stronger confirmation of cycle extreme than either metric analyzed in isolation.
Historically, both metrics collapse together during periods of stress and #BTC bottoming (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024)
For only time in Bitcoin history, the indicator hit 0.00 in 2015 when BTC plummeted from ~$300 to ~$160 — about a 50% drop in less than a week.
This same behavior has just repeated itself in 2026.
#Onchain #CYCLE #miners $BTC
#bitcoin Growth Envelope is a long-term valuation model that uses a projected geometric mean between two regression curves based on historical highs/lows.
#BTC historical tops and bottoms were formed within a price range between the Support/Resistance bands, with the exception of 2025 bull market high, which was near Fair Value.
The deviations that marked Bitcoin bottoming periods occur in the -60 point region of indicator, where we currently stand.
This model is relevant because the projection is adjusted based on historical price highs and lows, currently indicating a generational discount.
#Onchain #CYCLE #VALUATION $BTC
#BTC historical tops and bottoms were formed within a price range between the Support/Resistance bands, with the exception of 2025 bull market high, which was near Fair Value.
The deviations that marked Bitcoin bottoming periods occur in the -60 point region of indicator, where we currently stand.
This model is relevant because the projection is adjusted based on historical price highs and lows, currently indicating a generational discount.
#Onchain #CYCLE #VALUATION $BTC
#bitcoin Volatility Channel is a band-based pricing model that uses a central price average as the fair value (trend indicator), calculated based on annualized realized volatility (365-day window).
It measures how far the price is stretched/retraced relative to its own recent volatility within a defined trend.
The formation #BTC bottoms based on this model occurs when the price trades within Support band, at times deviating downward from this region, indicating an excellent accumulation period.
A change in nature of price trend defined by Fair Value as support/resistance confirms a reversal increasing the likelihood of move toward a specific range.
Currently Fair Value is in $66k–$67k range — if the price finds a floor after testing support level, this is a historical reversal pattern.
#Onchain #CYCLE $BTC
It measures how far the price is stretched/retraced relative to its own recent volatility within a defined trend.
The formation #BTC bottoms based on this model occurs when the price trades within Support band, at times deviating downward from this region, indicating an excellent accumulation period.
A change in nature of price trend defined by Fair Value as support/resistance confirms a reversal increasing the likelihood of move toward a specific range.
Currently Fair Value is in $66k–$67k range — if the price finds a floor after testing support level, this is a historical reversal pattern.
#Onchain #CYCLE $BTC
Hashrate MA30d #bitcoin continues to hit new lows of year, marking a decline of about 15% in 2026.
Miners are forced to shut down machines as they face pressure from low returns due to falling price #BTC and higher operating costs.
Another factor contributing to this trend is migration of infrastructure toward AI, as returns in Bitcoin ecosystem are currently near their lows (Puell Multiple below 1.00)
#Onchain #CYCLE #hashrate $BTC
Miners are forced to shut down machines as they face pressure from low returns due to falling price #BTC and higher operating costs.
Another factor contributing to this trend is migration of infrastructure toward AI, as returns in Bitcoin ecosystem are currently near their lows (Puell Multiple below 1.00)
#Onchain #CYCLE #hashrate $BTC
Strategy has 2.1 years of dividend coverage using only its current USD reserve
Currently Strategy covers 7.96x its total debt using its #BTC holdings ($53,4b) even with its position at red — it even realized loss selling -3,588 BTC to increase its USD reserve.
There is always a lot of FUD surrounding Saylor company and its position in #bitcoin , but regardless of any narrative, Strategy is not at risk of default and has never been in that situation since it first established its position.
For Strategy to go bankrupt and be unable to honor its debt, the price Bitcoin would need to be trading at less than ~$15k right now — in this scenario, the company would be unable to sell its BTC reserves to pay off its total debt and fund its USD cash flow for dividends.
In fact, currently the company can continue to fund its USD reserve by selling BTC at loss and honor 100% of its debt at any price.
The key point was the shift in the company’s strategy toward accepting the sale of BTC to cover these obligations — the main one being its current debt used to purchase the asset since 2020, which currently stands at approximately $6,714b
#Saylor #strategy #loss $BTC
Currently Strategy covers 7.96x its total debt using its #BTC holdings ($53,4b) even with its position at red — it even realized loss selling -3,588 BTC to increase its USD reserve.
There is always a lot of FUD surrounding Saylor company and its position in #bitcoin , but regardless of any narrative, Strategy is not at risk of default and has never been in that situation since it first established its position.
For Strategy to go bankrupt and be unable to honor its debt, the price Bitcoin would need to be trading at less than ~$15k right now — in this scenario, the company would be unable to sell its BTC reserves to pay off its total debt and fund its USD cash flow for dividends.
In fact, currently the company can continue to fund its USD reserve by selling BTC at loss and honor 100% of its debt at any price.
The key point was the shift in the company’s strategy toward accepting the sale of BTC to cover these obligations — the main one being its current debt used to purchase the asset since 2020, which currently stands at approximately $6,714b
#Saylor #strategy #loss $BTC
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Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $525 million
Strategy's USD reserve 🔵 now holds $3.75 billion
Strategy's current USD reserve covers 2.1 years of dividend payments
It sold 5,429,160 shares of MSTR to increase its reserves and repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC
No #bitcoin was sold and no new purchases were made.
Strategy holds 🟠 843,775 #BTC at an average cost 🟡 of $75,4k currently with an unrealized loss of -$8,67b
#strategy #Saylor #technicalanalyst $BTC
Strategy's USD reserve 🔵 now holds $3.75 billion
Strategy's current USD reserve covers 2.1 years of dividend payments
It sold 5,429,160 shares of MSTR to increase its reserves and repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC
No #bitcoin was sold and no new purchases were made.
Strategy holds 🟠 843,775 #BTC at an average cost 🟡 of $75,4k currently with an unrealized loss of -$8,67b
#strategy #Saylor #technicalanalyst $BTC
ELR Profit Quality Z #bitcoin signaled a capitulation phase after the price fell to $60k for the first time.
This indicator calculates a 365-day Z-score between the Entity-Level SOPR and the complement of the proportion of the supply at a loss, combining the quality of profits realized by entities with the relative weight of coins that are still at a loss.
Whales also realized losses during this downtrend; historically, when this occurs, it confirms a bottoming pattern for #BTC
#Onchain #technicalanalyst #CYCLE $BTC
This indicator calculates a 365-day Z-score between the Entity-Level SOPR and the complement of the proportion of the supply at a loss, combining the quality of profits realized by entities with the relative weight of coins that are still at a loss.
Whales also realized losses during this downtrend; historically, when this occurs, it confirms a bottoming pattern for #BTC
#Onchain #technicalanalyst #CYCLE $BTC
LTH/STH Dominance Ratio #bitcoin hits new all-time highs for 6 consecutive days 👀
#BTC #Onchain #LongTermHolders $BTC
#BTC #Onchain #LongTermHolders $BTC
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LTH/STH Dominance Ratio #bitcoin hits new All Time High 👀
#BTC #Onchain #LongTermHolders $BTC
#BTC #Onchain #LongTermHolders $BTC
Strategy has increased its USD Reserve by $525 million
Strategy's USD reserve 🔵 now holds $3.75 billion
Strategy's current USD reserve covers 2.1 years of dividend payments
It sold 5,429,160 shares of MSTR to increase its reserves and repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC
No #bitcoin was sold and no new purchases were made.
Strategy holds 🟠 843,775 #BTC at an average cost 🟡 of $75,4k currently with an unrealized loss of -$8,67b
#strategy #Saylor #technicalanalyst $BTC
Strategy's USD reserve 🔵 now holds $3.75 billion
Strategy's current USD reserve covers 2.1 years of dividend payments
It sold 5,429,160 shares of MSTR to increase its reserves and repurchased 288,930 shares of STRC
No #bitcoin was sold and no new purchases were made.
Strategy holds 🟠 843,775 #BTC at an average cost 🟡 of $75,4k currently with an unrealized loss of -$8,67b
#strategy #Saylor #technicalanalyst $BTC
Exchange CDD Pressure Index #bitcoin below the Neutral Zone
If this indicator tests the 0 region as resistance, it suggests a decline in LTH sellers sending #BTC to exchanges, with the potential for a sell-off.
We’re keeping an eye on this behavior because it indicates a high probability of a reversal if this movement occurs in the coming weeks.
#technicalanalyst #Onchain #exchange $BTC
If this indicator tests the 0 region as resistance, it suggests a decline in LTH sellers sending #BTC to exchanges, with the potential for a sell-off.
We’re keeping an eye on this behavior because it indicates a high probability of a reversal if this movement occurs in the coming weeks.
#technicalanalyst #Onchain #exchange $BTC
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Selling pressure from long-term holders in decline 🔻
Exchange CDD Pressure Index #bitcoin tracks the inflow of old coins to exchanges.
The indicator is approaching the neutral zone after three significant spikes as the #BTC price hit new lows.
#Onchain #inflows #bearmarket $BTC
Exchange CDD Pressure Index #bitcoin tracks the inflow of old coins to exchanges.
The indicator is approaching the neutral zone after three significant spikes as the #BTC price hit new lows.
#Onchain #inflows #bearmarket $BTC
#bitcoin holding $64k as support
This price range represents 50% of support channel.
If #BTC price tests this range as a floor, the recovery is likely to continue.
However, I am also increasing my short hedge position as the price hits new highs.
#technicalanalyst #Fibonacci #hedge $BTC
This price range represents 50% of support channel.
If #BTC price tests this range as a floor, the recovery is likely to continue.
However, I am also increasing my short hedge position as the price hits new highs.
#technicalanalyst #Fibonacci #hedge $BTC
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#bitcoin above ~$64k confirming the recovery
The initial target is Control Point at ~$68.6k
In addition to my active Long position, I’m increasing my Short hedge position as the price hits new highs.
#BTC #technicalanalyst #LONG✅ $BTC
The initial target is Control Point at ~$68.6k
In addition to my active Long position, I’m increasing my Short hedge position as the price hits new highs.
#BTC #technicalanalyst #LONG✅ $BTC
Historically positive deviations of #bitcoin price from the PowerLaw model have been steadily decreasing.
However, during last bull cycle the deviation was about 20x smaller than the indicator’s historical average, masking the pattern.
Meanwhile, #BTC bottoms are forming very close to a -60 deviation from the PowerLaw fair price, historically reaching support range — and this has happened again now.
The current market discount is generational, based on this pricing model.
#technicalanalyst #Onchain #PowerLaw $BTC
However, during last bull cycle the deviation was about 20x smaller than the indicator’s historical average, masking the pattern.
Meanwhile, #BTC bottoms are forming very close to a -60 deviation from the PowerLaw fair price, historically reaching support range — and this has happened again now.
The current market discount is generational, based on this pricing model.
#technicalanalyst #Onchain #PowerLaw $BTC
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#bitcoin is approaching the PowerLaw support band🔥
Historically, these movements are rare and have occurred only 4x in the history of #BTC — in 2015, 2022, 2020 (covid crash) and now in 2026.
During the 2018 bear market, it came very close to support level, but the price reversed before reaching it.
PowerLaw fair value is around $172k, which is approximately +160% above the current price, indicating an extreme discount based on this model’s historical comparison.
#PowerLaw #VALUATION #CYCLE $BTC
Historically, these movements are rare and have occurred only 4x in the history of #BTC — in 2015, 2022, 2020 (covid crash) and now in 2026.
During the 2018 bear market, it came very close to support level, but the price reversed before reaching it.
PowerLaw fair value is around $172k, which is approximately +160% above the current price, indicating an extreme discount based on this model’s historical comparison.
#PowerLaw #VALUATION #CYCLE $BTC
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