飞哥-破晓黎明

【Fei Jia Jun Actual Combat Command Center】 Officially Open! Rebate!!!!
Market fluctuations are ever-changing; only through deep understanding and practical experience can one navigate through the cycles of volatility.
Now, Brother Fei is offering free access, inviting like-minded traders to join the 【Brother Fei's Actual Combat Command Center】
👨‍🏫 Benefits in the group include:
1. Daily market review and strategy reference
2. Practical teaching and risk management
3. Sector logic breakdown and position thinking training
4. Brother Fei personally answers questions, leads the pace, and analyzes the market
🎯 Suitable for:
Investors who love trading and wish to systematically improve their practical skills;
Friends who want to shift from "copy trading mindset" to "independent judgment."

#山寨季何时到来？
November 26 Market Opportunities and Strategy Sharing:

Current altcoins have entered a period of value reassessment from their "darkest moment". A short-term rebound has been observed, and opportunities for capture exist through the recent pullbacks that do not break. This is suitable for short-term operations.
In the macro environment, expectations for interest rate cuts have sharply increased, geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, and institutional channels have been confirmed, with some altcoins showing rebound opportunities that have long-term valuation potential.
RWA tokenization liquidity has increased, and ONDO/MKR can be focused on;
ETH ecosystem infrastructure is deeply tied to ETH's value (scarcity/staking rate) and is the core of the future L2 explosion, worth paying attention to ARB/OP/LDO;
In terms of institutional channels and valuation reconstruction, breaking through regulation and obtaining legal identity for institutions provides the greatest potential for valuation repair and reconstruction, with XRP/DOGE being a focus;
The short-term rebound may not have a large space, and the operation is highly demanding, with very high requirements for buying points. The better the buying point, the smaller the defensive space, and thus the lower the risk. At the same time, one must possess keen insight to make timely profit-taking when mainstream rebounds lose momentum, in order to lock in profits!

#ETH走势分析
11月26日以太坊趋势讲解及日内分析：

ETH：当前以太正处于第一波止跌后的修复性反弹阶段，连续四根阳线，量能明显不足，同时K线实体较小，属于“弱反弹、强压力”的结构性修复，趋势仍未反转。短期均线MA7已被突破并有所收口，但中期均线（MA14/30/90）全部维持向下发散，说明短期行情反弹，中期维持空头趋势，当前MA14（2980）均线正压制价格反弹，此位置刚好对应月中旬反复下探的防守线，具备一定的抛压。成交量在反弹中明显较小，典型的弱反弹+资金观望，反弹仅靠短线交易与低位抄底的散户力量。MACD指标双线金叉已成，柱体转正值，属于超跌后的初期反弹雏形。后续行情，未来1-3日重点关注3120一线强压，回踩关注2750一线防守，等待行情走出放量突破性信号。日内操作上，下方重点关注2900-2850位置支撑看反弹机会，上方重点关注2950-3000点位置压力。

#BTC走势分析
November 26 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: Currently, BTC has completed a phase of stopping the decline, but has not yet emerged from the trend reversal. It formed a clear long lower shadow 'hammer' line at 80600 USD, and the subsequent rebounds have all resulted in short small bullish candles with reduced volume, indicating weak upward momentum. The current price is stuck in the 87-88 range, which is the battleground of bulls and bears from the previous breakdown, and is clearly suppressed in the current weak rebound, so overall it is in a stage of rebound within a structural downtrend, and the trend has not reversed. The short-term moving average system MA7 has been broken, but it still needs time to turn upward; the medium-term moving averages (MA14/30/90) are all maintaining a downward diverging bearish arrangement, especially the monthly line around 100K, which will become an important threshold for Bitcoin's rebound, and it is also the standard for Bitcoin to resume its bullish trend. The trading volume shows a rebound with reduced volume, and no signs of bullish breakout with increased volume have been observed, which is a typical 'bearish exhaustion + bullish hesitation' rebound, not a reversal driven by main forces. The MACD indicator's two lines are deeply positioned below the 0 axis, indicating a medium-term bearish trend; however, in recent days the two lines have been converging, entering a rebound repair phase; the negative value of the histogram is gradually shortening, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum; overall, under the medium-term bearish trend, a phased repair rebound has occurred. For the upcoming market, in the next 1-3 days, it is expected to slightly retrace around 85 without breaking, and continue to attack the 89-92 range; if a significant macro favorable news appears, and there is an external increase resonance, there might be a chance to push up to 95 or even attempt to touch around 100K. Currently, the volume is too low, making it a small probability. In intraday operations, pay close attention to the support at 86.8-85.5 to look for rebound opportunities, and focus on the resistance at 88.8-89.8 above.

#山寨季何时到来？
November 25 Analysis of the Current Situation of Shanzhai and the Three Most Promising Main Lines for the Future:

Shanzhai: In the past month, Shanzhai has mainly been suppressed by macro fears, but the greatest pressure on the macro front has now eased, though the inflow of institutional funds will take time. Currently, Shanzhai is in a stage of 'seriously undervalued'—their prices reflect macro fears, but their intrinsic value and future institutional channels point to a highly certain future. Under the support of favorable macro conditions in the future, our investment philosophy shifts from 'defensive' accumulation to 'strategic allocation using bottom building.' Patience is the greatest profit; favorable macro conditions may trigger a wave of oversold rebounds, but do not rush to chase the rise. Utilize the market's panic pullbacks and low-volume consolidation for strategic, phased accumulation.
The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased market risk appetite, and liquidity will gradually warm up. ONDO (supply side) and MKR (demand side) are the golden bridges connecting TradFi funds and may become the biggest beneficiaries of liquidity.
L2 Horizontal (ARB/OP) is a necessity for ETH expansion; LSD Horizontal (LDO) is the direct beneficiary of ETH's scarcity and capital efficiency improvement. Its fundamentals are deeply tied to ETH value. Once Ethereum ends this round of decline and completes bottom building, they will soar with the wind.
Regulatory relaxation, channels opened: XRP/DOGE have broken through compliance boundaries, gaining legal status for institutions, and may obtain the greatest valuation reconstruction opportunity in the future.
Macro noise has been eliminated; now is the stage for the market to 'repay debts.' We should strengthen our confidence, extend our vision, and focus on the aforementioned 'three main lines' for strategic layout. Missing the $80,000 stop-loss signal is not regrettable, but missing the bottom accumulation period brought by the macro reversal is the greatest loss.

#ETH走势分析
November 25th Ethereum Trend Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

ETH: This round of Ethereum has fallen from a high of 4956, with a maximum drop of 47%, nearly halving. The K-line shows a 'weak rebound after breaking down', characterized by: each round of rebound struggles to return to the key moving averages; significant selling pressure above; the downward trend line continues to exert pressure. This indicates that Ethereum's medium-term trend has not yet reversed and is currently in a rebound repair phase, rather than a true bottoming rebound. A significant deep adjustment can only lead to a new upward trend through a long bottoming process. During the bottoming process, the height of rebounds is limited, and their duration is short, often testing the holding costs near the densely traded area below. Yesterday, a moderate increase in volume closed with a bullish K-line, and the coin price broke through the short-term moving average MA7, but has not yet disrupted the bearish arrangement of moving averages. A volume contraction adjustment after the rebound is needed to reverse the downward extension of the moving averages, indicating that the current short-term rebound of Ethereum is a repair rather than a trend reversal. A volume-contracted rebound indicates that the main players have not yet started to lift the market, and outside funds are on the sidelines. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross below the zero line, and the histogram has begun to turn positive, indicating a reduction in downward momentum, providing conditions for a short-term rebound, while the medium-term outlook remains weak, and a bottom must be established for the long-term. In the subsequent market, first focus on the resistance at the 3000 round number, while the 3000-3200 range has certain selling pressure, which will suppress the short-term rebound. A test of the 2800-2700 point range without breaking is an opportunity for short-term accumulation. For intraday operations, focus on the resistance at the 2950-3000 point position above, and pay close attention to the support at the 2870-2830 position below for rebound opportunities.

#BTC走势分析
November 25 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: On Friday, there was a massive drop followed by a rebound, then it formed a small upward candlestick with reduced volume, indicating that there are currently buyers supporting the price, and the strength of the bears is weakening, which is a typical weak rebound pattern under bearish pressure. The daily line closed with a small upward candlestick yesterday, standing above the short-term moving average MA7. If it can maintain a stable state in the next two days, the MA7 moving average will gradually start to turn upwards, indicating a bullish accumulation process, which lays the foundation for a push towards 100,000. The trading volume has not yet increased during the rebound in the past two days; the bulls are in the initial intervention stage, belonging to the stabilization and accumulation phase, and have not yet entered the counterattack phase. The MACD indicator, after a deep dive of the fast line, has started to turn and converge, with the negative value of the histogram gradually shortening, expecting to turn positive, forming a bottom divergence with the price, technically entering a position of 'bearish momentum exhausted, waiting for reversal.' In the subsequent market, if the rebound near 90K does not break down, and the technical indicators follow to form a golden cross, it is expected to challenge the strong resistance around 95K, which will form a short-cycle technical repair market. The pullback range of 83-85 will be a short-term buying opportunity, with the core defense in the 80-78K range, which can serve as the last defensive line for the bulls. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the support level at 86.5-85.5K for rebound opportunities and the resistance level at 88.5-89.5K above.

#美联储何时降息？
📈Market expectations have shifted dramatically! CME data shows over 80% probability of a rate cut in December, indicating signs of easing in the macro environment.

According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market's expectation for the December interest rate decision has risen to 82.9%.

Significant shift in expectations: The high probability of 82.9% reflects a substantial change in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This indicates that after the dovish voices within the Fed have strengthened (such as Daly), traders are generally starting to price in a more accommodative monetary environment.

Easing macro pressures: This change in expectations helps alleviate concerns in the UAE market about high interest rates persisting for a long time. Although a rate cut is not 100% certain, the macro headwinds faced by risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) are marginally improving.

Potential support for liquidity: Easing interest rate expectations are conducive to increasing market risk appetite, providing potential liquidity support for assets like BTC/ETH.

⚠️Fei Ge's advice: Although the market pricing has highly tilted towards rate cuts, the final decision still needs to wait for the December FOMC meeting. We should view this as a significant reduction in macro risks, rather than a guarantee that a bull market is imminent. Strategically, maintain a strategic allocation to fundamentally strong assets (L2, RWA, etc.) while continuing to monitor the stability of the market's technical aspects.

#doge⚡

💥First US DOGE Spot ETF Launched: Net Inflows Zero, Cash Redemption Only Supported

On November 24th (Eastern Time), Grayscale's first-ever DOGE single-token spot ETF, Grayscale GDOG (ticker symbol: GDOG), officially debuted on the NYSE, attracting significant market attention.

📊First Day Performance (SoSoValue Data):

Net Inflows: 0 (Institutions have not yet entered the market, indicating a wait-and-see attitude)

Trading Volume: $1.41 million

Total Net Asset Value: $1.71 million

💡 Notable Aspects:

GDOG uses a cash redemption model and does not support physical delivery, making it more friendly to traditional institutions;

The management fee is only 0.19%, setting a new record for low fees for crypto ETFs. Grayscale's goal is clear: to make DOGE a "meme exposure that can be held by a wider range of institutions."

📈Market Significance: The launch of the DOGE ETF marks the first time this established Meme coin has entered the US compliant asset system, officially ushering in the institutional era of Meme assets. Although no large-scale capital inflow was observed on the first day, trading activity was high, potentially indicating that larger-scale funds are awaiting further confirmation.

👉Summary: DOGE has moved from jokes to Wall Street; now it remains to be seen when the funds will act.

💥Dovish Assault! San Francisco Fed President Daly Calls for Rate Cuts in December, Bearish on Job Market!

The Wall Street Journal reports that San Francisco Fed President and key figure within the Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, has publicly stated that she supports a rate cut next month (December)!

【Core Analysis and Logical Turnaround】

Rare Voice Challenging Powell: Daly is a moderate within the Federal Reserve and rarely publicly opposes Powell. Her public statement is the strongest outbreak of dovish sentiment within the Federal Reserve.

Focus Shifts to Employment: Daly believes that the possibility of a sudden deterioration in the job market (non-linear changes) is greater and harder to control than a sharp surge.

Daly's Exact Words: "The labor market is already fragile enough, and risks are undergoing invisible changes."

Inflation Risk Decreases: She believes that due to the sharply increased costs driven by tariffs, the inflation risk has decreased.

🔥Huge Impact on the Market and Federal Reserve Decisions:

Macroeconomic Winds Returning: The signal is the current market's most needed catalyst for "risk appetite to return." It hedges against the geopolitical risks and uncertainties brought by internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve that we analyzed on Monday.

Breakthrough in Decision-Making Stalemate: Daly's strong influence plays a key role in the serious reduction of the current FOMC's internal debate on whether to "pause rate hikes" or "cut rates," significantly increasing the likelihood of a rate cut at the December meeting, which clearly indicates a dovish possibility.

Conclusion: Daly's statement is the first major crack in the hawkish high wall! This is an instantly constructive positive for risk assets ($BTC / $ETH and altcoins), and it may change the narrative of macro headwinds in the market in the short term!
#美联储何时降息？

#山寨季何时到来？
November 24 Analysis of Altcoin Status and Potential Sector Opportunities Share:

Altcoin Sector: The current altcoin market is in an extremely contradictory period: short-term prices are dominated by macro fears, but long-term value and institutional channels are accelerating. Macroeconomic pressure is reflected in the delayed NFP/CPI reports, forcing the Federal Reserve to make decisions in December while being 'completely blind'. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell faces the most severe internal dissent in his eight-year tenure, with policy uncertainty being the primary weapon against risk assets. Last week's accelerated decline in BTC/ETH triggered passive selling of altcoins, with Base TVL dropping 7.44% over the past week, confirming that under macro panic, funds are withdrawing from risk assets like L2, leading to further liquidity depletion in altcoins.
However, amidst the noise of macro fears, the core fundamentals are being realized at an unprecedented speed, creating a golden window for strategic positioning:
1. Institutional channels fully opened: Grayscale's DOGE/XRP spot ETF was listed today (Monday) on NYSE Arca. This is a significant regulatory confirmation for non-BTC/ETH assets, indicating that trillions in institutional funds will have legitimate channels to enter the broader altcoin space.
2. Core defensive capabilities enhanced: Tether's gold reserves surged by $7.6 billion to $12.9 billion. This greatly enhances the stability of USDT and its ability to withstand systemic risks, representing an 'epic defense' for the crypto ecosystem.
3. Ethereum scarcity locked: ETH staking volume exceeded 35.79 million coins, locking in nearly 30% of the total supply. This means the intrinsic value and scarcity of ETH are continuously strengthening, solidifying its status as a cornerstone of L2.
4. Infrastructure continues to mature: Linea bridge connecting ETH surpassed 1.2 million coins, with RWA retailization accelerating. This proves that regardless of bear or bull markets, capital is steadfastly paving the way for the next generation of Web3 applications.
The current market is a product of the intense collision between 'macro fear' and 'institutional future', with short-term trading opportunities in altcoins having only a 20-30% rebound potential, while long-term positioning opportunities require acceptance of a market bottoming cycle of 2-3 months. This understanding is crucial, and one must also prepare psychologically for this construction.
Three main lines anchoring core assets: Institutional track: XRP/DOGE (ETF targets); Core Ethereum ecosystem: L2/zkEVM and LSD/re-staking; External funding entry: RWA/tokenization track.

#ETH走势分析
November 24 Ethereum trend explanation and intraday analysis:

ETH: The weekly chart has once again closed with a large bearish candle on increased volume, maintaining an overall bearish trend. Last week, it dipped near the 2600 points, just touching the upper support of the range built between 2400-2700 in May and June. The short-term moving averages on the weekly chart continue to diverge downward, with the MA7 breaking below the MA30, forming a death cross. The six-month line (MA180) and the lifeline (2450) will be Ethereum's last line of defense, also representing the lower boundary of the platform from May and June.
On the daily chart, after a volume spike on Friday, it closed with a long shadow small bearish candle, and Saturday saw a contraction with a doji candlestick, followed by two small bullish candles on reduced volume. The price has completed the process of "breaking down → accelerating downward → first stabilization after decline". The current price is hovering around the Fibonacci strongest resistance line of 61.8% (2750), experiencing repeated fluctuations, which is a typical signal of “first stabilization after a drop into a deep value zone.” The candlestick pattern shows a structure of “increased volume long lower shadow + small bullish candle,” indicating a weakening bearish trend and the emergence of short-term stabilization signals; the moving average system is completely bearish, but approaching the “oversold rebound zone.” Generally, when the coin price drops more than -5% away from the MA14, the demand for short-term rebounds increases, which is commonly referred to as a technical rebound; the MACD indicator's dual lines are starting to converge, and the negative value of the histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bearish momentum is clearly weakening, typically signaling a rhythm of declining momentum exhaustion → waiting for rebound confirmation; after a panic selling event on Friday, the trading volume has entered a phase of gradual adjustment, with the recent slight contraction indicating that the selling pressure from this round has mostly been released, weakening the marginal strength of the bears and starting to enter the “stage bottom trading area.” The subsequent short-term rebound pressure zone is the first resistance area, particularly focusing on the 2950-3000 point range.
For intraday operations, focus on the support around 2800-2750 for rebound opportunities, and pay attention to the resistance around 2900-2950.

#BTC走势分析
November 24 Bitcoin trend explanation and intraday analysis:

BTC: The weekly chart shows a significant drop with a lower shadow in a medium bearish candle. The K-line has broken below the weekly MA90 moving average, with a low around 80,000, reaching a yearly low. In the first half of the year, risk assets were significantly pressured downwards due to the trade war, and Bitcoin fell below 80,000, followed by a month-long bottoming process. This round of decline was caused by three macro factors (government shutdown, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, and regional tensions), leading to a 35% decline in Bitcoin. Last week, it fell back to the yearly low around 80,000 (corresponding to the strongest resistance line of the Fibonacci retracement at 61.8%). Currently, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, and prices have rebounded accordingly, but the overall weekly trend remains downward. Before a market reversal, a long bottoming process is still needed, and there is a gap in the weekly technical lower shadow that needs to be repaired through a second test and pullback.
On the daily chart, last Friday showed a massive spike signal, and the K-line closed with a long lower shadow and a small bearish candle, indicating that prices dropped to around 80,000, followed by buying entering the market. This K-line signal is what we have mentioned multiple times in the past two weeks as a daily stop-loss signal we need to wait for. From the K-line rebound in the last two days, the current rebound is a weak pullback; the trading volume has not kept up with the price, reflecting that market selling pressure has significantly decreased. The short-term moving average system (MA7/14) remains in a bearish arrangement and has not been broken, with the rebound just touching the MA7 daily moving average, showing a temporary stagnation. The market still needs a slight adjustment to reverse the downward trend of the moving averages. The MACD indicator shows signs of turning at the 0 axis, and negative values of the histogram are gradually shortening, indicating that the bearish trend is weakening, and bulls are starting to enter, but a reversal signal has not yet formed. In the subsequent market, focus on volume and price performance; the daily and 4-hour charts need to show increasing volume on the rise, with a decreasing volume pullback in the range of 84-82 to build a new phase of bottoming box structure, laying the foundation for a significant rebound in the future; meanwhile, the 92K level above will be the first resistance line for subsequent market rebounds, with concentrated selling pressure in the 100-102 range, requiring a long bottoming period or major positive stimulus to break through.
For intraday operations, focus on the support around the 86-85 position for rebound opportunities, and pay attention to the pressure near the 89 level above.

#以太质押
🚀【ETH Scarcity Hits Historic Highs! Beacon Chain Staking Volume Exceeds 35.79 Million, Nearly 30% of Supply Locked!】
💥 Core Data Shocking Announcement (Dune):

The staking data of Ethereum's Beacon Chain continues to break records amid macro headwinds:

Total Staking Volume: Exceeds 35,794,076 ETH!

Locked Ratio: Staked ETH accounts for nearly 28.84% of total supply! (This means that the ETH circulating in the market is rapidly decreasing, and scarcity is soaring!)

Confidence After Shanghai Upgrade: Since the Shanghai upgrade (withdrawals enabled), net inflows have reached as high as 17,628,086 ETH! (This completely shatters the FUD that “withdrawals will lead to sell-offs.”)

Lido's Dominance: The liquidity staking protocol Lido maintains an absolute dominant position with a share of 23.97%.

【Core Interpretation and Market Impact】

ETH's Deflation and Scarcity: With nearly 30% of the supply locked, combined with the EIP-1559 burning mechanism, ETH is becoming one of the world's most hardcore “deflationary assets.” This means future rebounds will face less selling pressure.

Consensus Among Institutions and Whales: Such large-scale staking is the final confirmation from institutions and whales of ETH's role as “internet bonds.” They are locking in their chips with real actions, indicating strong confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.

Safe Haven Amid Tightening Liquidity: As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction leads to tightening market liquidity, staking offers a relatively stable annual yield, making ETH a self-yielding safe-haven asset that attracts long-term capital.

🔥 Summary: Macro pressures can only affect prices but cannot change value. Regardless of short-term price fluctuations, the continuous breakthroughs in staking data prove that ETH's fundamentals are in an epic enhancement phase!

👇 Brothers, with ETH staking volume approaching 30%, do you think ETH's price has the inherent momentum for a reversal?

#L2TVL
📉【L2 Leader Base encountered a short-term liquidity pullback last week! The TVL scale is enormous, but it struggles against the macroeconomic "three mountains" pressure!】
💥 Core data observation (L2BEAT):

Base TVL scale: Reaching $12.25 billion! (This confirms its market position as a L2 giant and the strong trust backed by Coinbase.)

7-day decline: Reached -7.44%. (This shows that there has been a noticeable outflow of funds and a demand for risk aversion in the past week.)

【Core interpretation and market impact】

The embodiment of macro fear: The drop in Base TVL is not an issue with the project itself, but a direct reflection of the current macro pressure in the crypto market. In the channel of accelerated decline of BTC/ETH, users are moving funds from L2 back to exchanges or stablecoins, which is a standard "risk aversion operation."

Difficult to withstand the "three mountains": Even for projects like Base, with a huge scale of $12.25 billion and a strong background, it cannot fully resist the short-term selling pressure brought by the "three mountains" of hawkish macro, liquidity exhaustion, and technical weakness.

Fundamentals remain solid: Despite the short-term decline, the TVL scale of $12.25 billion is a very strong fundamental signal. This indicates that the infrastructure of Base has been established, and the current pullback is merely a periodic liquidity outflow from the market, not a structural collapse.

🔥 Summary: This data once again confirms our view: short-term prices are dominated by macro and liquidity. In the "bottoming cycle," even the best assets will experience painful pullbacks. This provides us with patience and basis for strategically building core infrastructure after a complete bottoming out.

#Linea
🚀 【L2 Explosion! Linea Mainnet Bridge to ETH Breaks 1.22 Million, Ethereum Scaling Accelerates!】
💥 Core Data Shockingly Released (Dune):

zkEVM giant Linea's mainnet data has reached an explosive milestone:

Bridged ETH: Breaks 1,222,464 coins! (This is a massive capital inflow, proving that institutions and users have a high level of trust in Linea.)

Number of Interactive Addresses: Over 428,000! (A large user base, demonstrating genuine user adoption and ecological vitality.)

Number of Transactions: Over 1.31 million!

【Core Interpretation and Market Impact】

Victory for the Ethereum Ecosystem: Such a large amount of capital and users flowing into Linea directly confirms that L2 scaling solutions are the main battleground for infrastructure development in the current crypto world, successfully addressing Ethereum's congestion issues.

Capital Defense in Macroeconomics: In the face of the Federal Reserve's "dual blind flight" and tightening liquidity, over 1.2 million ETH (of significant value) is still firmly flowing into L2 infrastructure, indicating that top capital is strategically positioning for the next bull market.

Reinforcing the Core Narrative: This directly strengthens our emphasized investment philosophy of "anchoring core infrastructure." The L2/EVM compatibility track is undeniably a long-term value gap.

🔥 Summary: While short-term prices are suppressed by macro factors, the explosive growth of Ethereum L2's TVL is the most powerful evidence of a positive fundamental outlook for the crypto market!

👇 Brothers, among the three giants of L2 - Linea, Arb, and Op, who do you think will be the biggest winner in the next bull market?

#山寨季何时到来？
November 21st Analysis of the Three Mountains Suppression and Future Orientation:

Shanzhai: Yesterday, I specifically mentioned to everyone that we must accept the bottom-building cycle. A rebound without a bottom will definitely be limited in height and durability. Such rebounds are often just a rogue behavior; after a one-night stand, the emotions will only become colder. The market has experienced a deep correction, especially in mainstream coins, with Ethereum dropping from 47 to 27 in a month and a half, almost halving; Bitcoin has fallen from 126K to now 82K, a decline of 35%. This deep correction usually requires 2-3 months for market confidence to recover, and during these two to three months, the market is mostly characterized by small ups and downs, with no significant overall increase. This period is also the accumulation phase for the market manipulators. Only with enough time at the bottom, the chips will be more concentrated, leading to a longer and stronger explosive phase later.
At the current stage, we must withstand the examination and hold onto our chips. Do not be blindly tempted by short-term rebounds to catch the falling knife; be wary of the risk of a second bottom after the "temptation to buy the dip." Wait for the market sentiment to hit the bottom completely before making a strong move to build core infrastructure.
The current "Three Mountains" of Shanzhai:
1. Hawkish Macroeconomic Policy (Pressure): Strong NFP data exceeds expectations, internal deadlock at the Federal Reserve;
2. Weak Technical Structure (Risk): BTC/ETH is still in a downward channel, and as long as mainstream coins have not completed the bottom-building process, altcoins will struggle to form a trend reversal;
3. Liquidity Exhaustion: The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) continues to drain liquidity from the market.
Future Orientation:
1. AI Narrative Anchoring (Emotional Boost): Nvidia's (NVDA) outstanding earnings report successfully boosted global risk appetite.
2. Retailization of RWA Implementation: Ondo has been approved to provide tokenized stocks/ETFs to 500 million European retail investors.
3. Ultimate Integration of Ethereum (EIL): The release of the EIL proposal aims to address L2 fragmentation and cross-chain bridge risks, which is a core technological breakthrough for achieving "hundred million users' seamless adoption" in the future.

#ETH走势分析
November 21st Ethereum Trend Deep Analysis and Day Analysis:

ETH: The daily line closed with a large bearish candle, and the recent defense at the 3000 point level has been breached again. Today's continuous decline has temporarily halted near the strongest Fibonacci resistance line (61.8% retracement level) around 2750. This position is also the upper support level of this year's Ethereum's consolidation range from May to July, which is between 2400 and 2700. The moving average system shows a bearish divergence trend across all short to medium-term moving averages (MA7/14/30/90), especially the short-term moving average MA7, which is under strong pressure. The K-line has consistently moved downward around the MA7 without showing any reversal or effective stabilization, indicating that Ethereum is in a unidirectional bearish phase dominated by a downtrend. The trading volume has continued to expand while strongly declining, and the rebound energy is clearly insufficient, only counting as a technical corrective rebound. The MACD indicator's fast line has once again opened downward, the negative value of the histogram has expanded again, and no convergence has been seen, with no signs of a bottom divergence. For the subsequent market trend in the upcoming week, pay close attention to the support band in the 24-27 range. If the daily line repeatedly tests this range for a rebound, and the K-line impact is prolonged while trading volume also expands, it can be regarded as a stop-loss buying signal; conversely, if it falls below 2400, the market may usher in a new wave of panic selling. In day trading operations, focus on the pressure opportunities around the upper level of 2780-2830, and the support level around 2700-2650 below.

#BTC走势分析
November 21 Bitcoin Trend In-Depth Explanation and Intraday Analysis:

BTC: Yesterday at 5 AM, Nvidia's earnings report was released, which added a bit of confidence to the market's rebound. The market then rebounded, reaching around 93K at its highest. The evening video analysis clearly indicated a shorting opportunity at the 93 position pressure. During the evening US market time, there was a continued increase in volume, leading to a decline, and the recent focus support level of 87 has now been broken. The daily candlestick for yesterday closed with a large bearish candlestick with an expanding volume, breaking through the Fibonacci 50% retracement line (87K corresponds to the weekly MA90). After a few days of correction, the market has entered an accelerated downward phase again, and there are currently no signs of a bottom. Caution is advised for bottom fishing. The moving average system for the short to medium term (MA7/14/30/90) continues to press downwards, and at this stage, the bulls have completely lost their initiative, while the bears fully dominate the market. The rebound in the past two days was also a repair of the gap created between the candlesticks and moving averages due to last week's rapid decline, which we commonly refer to as a corrective rebound. The trading volume has once again increased during the decline, indicating a typical panic selling structure. The MACD indicator's fast line has widened again, with the negative value of the histogram also expanding, and the downward momentum has intensified, with no signs of a bottom or buy signal yet. The subsequent market is likely to continue to probe downwards, accelerating towards the 78-80 range, where defense is crucial as it is the strongest resistance line of Fibonacci (61.8% retracement line), and it is also near this year's low. If the market can stop falling and the candlestick forms a large volume pin bar, there is a chance for a rebound to challenge the 94-96 range again; otherwise, once it breaks below 78K with increased volume, Bitcoin may face a halving situation, heading towards around 63K. For intraday operations, focus on the 87-88 position for shorting opportunities above, and pay attention to the support at the 84-83 position below.

💥The hawkish camp adds another vote! Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: I feel "uneasy" about a rate cut in December!

Federal Reserve official Goolsbee expressed his support for the hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve on Thursday, stating that he feels "uneasy" about another rate cut at the December meeting!

【Core logic of concern】

Risk of inflation stagnation: Goolsbee pointed out that inflation's decline "seems to have stagnated, and it can even be said that it has sent a warning of going in the wrong direction." This is the core reason for the hawks' continued opposition to rate cuts.

Short-term caution outweighs long-term optimism: While he believes the economy will eventually return to a situation where "interest rates can be significantly lowered" (long-term optimism), he opposes "prematurely cutting rates significantly" in the near term.

Confirmation from the minutes: His statement perfectly confirms the position of the "many" officials who felt "uneasy" about a rate cut in December in yesterday's meeting minutes.

🔥 Summary: As global markets attempt to find optimism from Nvidia's earnings report, the hawkish voice of the Federal Reserve once again issues a clear warning: inflation remains high at 3%, and there will be no easy policy loosening in the short term. This continues to exert macro pressure on the BTC/ETH market.
#美联储何时降息？