DMR Kripto

#Bitcoin continues to decline below $100k, making lower lows.

Due to the ongoing short-term downtrend structure, it is extremely natural for $BTC to drop during this process.

If you do not understand the reason for the decline, it means you are not following the US stock markets closely enough. As I have frequently explained in recent months, Bitcoin has a high correlation with US stock markets.

This means Bitcoin follows the US stock markets; when the US stock markets rise, it rises, and when they fall, it falls.

All global markets were down yesterday due to the weakening probability of a rate cut planned for next month.

The probability appears to be 50%, meaning the FED will flip a coin at the December meeting. Financial markets do not like uncertainty at all, and if there is uncertainty, they fall.

In an environment where the interest rate decision is so uncertain and all global indices have fallen by 2-3%, it would already be very difficult for Bitcoin to hold above 100k.

Currently, the only thing to do is to wait for the break of the downtrend and closely monitor the US stock markets.

It would be foolish to expect Bitcoin to perform wonders while the US stock markets are falling. Additionally, the downtrend structure is already continuing, and it is extremely important for us to see the breakdown of this structure.

Apart from these two factors, other data may mislead during this process. Therefore, to understand the direction and make correct trades, it will be sufficient to only follow these two during this process.

I wish everyone a beautiful day and abundant profits.

Good morning☀️

$BTC continues to leave investors who open trades in both directions behind by constantly changing direction.

Since the falling trend resistance has not yet been broken, there is an insecure and anxious market environment.

As I mentioned before, for the market to regain safety and start rising again, the falling trend resistance needs to be broken.

Additionally, the first critical resistance we monitor during reversals from the bottom is the fibo 0.618 level.

Fibo 0.618 currently corresponds to around $110k. The falling trend resistance also indicates around $110k.

So, breaking above $110k will simultaneously ensure the break of the falling trend and the break of fibo 0.618, which confirms our reversal from the bottom.

If we can get these two confirmations, the market will become safer, and we will be able to discuss rises; however, as long as we do not see these breakouts, the choppy market and uncertain process will continue.

Let's closely monitor the levels I mentioned, friends⏰

I wish everyone a beautiful day and plenty of profits.

Good morning ☀️

#Bitcoin has seen a net outflow of 2.8 billion dollars from the spot ETF in the last month.

Considering the significant drop on October 10 and the approximately 20% decline of $BTC from around 126k, we can say that this outflow is quite normal.

We have also observed that futures and options trades were closed simultaneously.

In the past, we have seen similar outflows, even larger ones. Generally, the amount entering the ETF in the long term is much greater than the amount exiting.

When we look at the long-term ETF chart, we see that it has consistently progressed upwards and that investors continue to accumulate BTC with a piggy bank mentality. Therefore, the recent outflows do not create a cause for concern.

Even though it has not been 2 years since the ETF approval, ETF investors have accumulated 713,000 BTC.

When we add other countries, we can say that there are approximately 1 million BTC in ETFs. In other words, in less than 2 years, ETF investors have acquired 1/20th of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation.

Due to the recent outflows, I wanted to highlight the big picture again, as I've noticed concerns.

Looking at the big picture, there is no cause for concern regarding the recent outflows, and if demand continues in the same way, we can say that the BTC price will continue to increase rapidly within a few years.

Wishing everyone a beautiful day and abundant profits.

Good morning ☀️

#Bitcoin started the new week with a calm and volume-less beginning around $106k.

I had shared a detailed article explaining the possibility of filling the wick after the big drop.

Based on the price movements experienced in the past, I had mentioned that $BTC could revisit around $102k in mid-November.

On November 4, the wick was filled earlier than the expected date, and BTC dropped to around $99k. I hope you have seen the previous analysis and prepared for this possibility.

In the current situation, the filling of the wick and the cleaning of liquidations was good, but we need to break the downtrend for the outlook to turn positive.

The downtrend resistance coincides exactly with fibo 0.618 resistance. Since breaking the downtrend resistance will also break fibo 0.618, it will change the outlook to positive.

As long as the downtrend is not broken, we need to act cautiously.

Last week, an updated video was supposed to be released, but I did not have the opportunity to share it due to personal matters that came up at the last minute.

All matters are resolved, and now I can refocus 100% of my attention back to the market.

I will be updating frequently this week. Additionally, an updated Bitcoin analysis will be published today, where I will clearly explain all the data and my expectations in the video.

I wish everyone a great week and abundant profits.

#Bitcoin $113k support has quickly fallen to the $104k level after losing its support.

Data and trend structure had turned positive after breaking $114k, but the crypto side did not rise as U.S. stock markets started to decline.

We had made a purchase because the data turned positive, but the market fell, and as we mentioned while making the purchase, we ended the position with a 2% loss after the first H4 close below $113k.

Currently, it seems that the crypto sector has no will of its own and is just following the U.S. stock markets, and the correlation is still very high.

I haven't had the opportunity to provide updates lately due to my personal matters, but since I clearly communicated my trade plan, I believe you are not left without an idea about the direction, friends.

As of today, I will be updating frequently. Also, tomorrow an updated Bitcoin analysis will be published, and I will clearly explain all the data and my expectations in the video.

For now, as I mentioned above, the market is only following the U.S. stock markets. It will be sufficient to only follow the U.S. side.

Wishing everyone a beautiful day and plenty of profits.

$BTC whale activity has turned green again.

Whale activity had been in the negative zone below 0 for 2 weeks, but with #Bitcoin breaking the $114k resistance, it has moved back above 0 into the positive zone.

Currently, it has risen above +2, indicating that whales are re-engaging in trading.

Last week, I shared a more detailed post about whale activity. If you read this post, you can better understand where the turning points from red to green are.

https://t.co/1ahkAmNgIn

As long as we do not see a close below $113k and whale activity below 0, we can say that the short-term outlook will be positive.

#Bitcoin surpassed the $114k region, starting the new week positively.

With the surpassing of this region, $BTC has set a new high peak and turned the short-term outlook positive. Additionally, the 200-day moving average, which acted as a pinpoint resistance after the decline, has also been crossed.

As I mentioned earlier, we made a purchase with an H4 close above $114k, staying true to the plan. Our first target will be to follow the $126k resistance. Our stop condition will be if the price closes below $113k on an H4 basis.

The risk we are taking is losing 2%, while the potential return we can achieve is approximately 10% gain. I believe the risk-reward ratio is quite reasonable for this trade.

Simultaneously, some technical indicators have also turned positive. I will share these data with you all during the day.

Wishing everyone a great week and plenty of profits.

FED Chairman Powell announced that the balance sheet reduction ongoing for three years will come to an end in the upcoming period.

The cessation of the balance sheet reduction, how will the CPI data announced yesterday and the FED interest rate decision affect #Bitcoin?

We addressed the current technical data and all your questions in the $BTC analysis.

Don't forget to follow: https://t.co/ACjQwt4kpm

Wishing everyone a nice weekend and plenty of profits.

Good morning☀️

#Bitcoin and US stock markets started the new week with a positive beginning.

Last night, S&P 500 and Nasdaq had a positive opening. Since the correlation of $BTC with US stock markets is very high, it rose simultaneously.

In recent months, the price has been progressing almost identically. Therefore, to understand the direction of Bitcoin, we need to first understand the direction of the US stock markets.

For example, after 03:30 last night, while US stock markets were rising, BTC was moving sideways. Due to the high correlation, BTC could not move sideways any longer and started to rise by following the US stock markets.

When we look at the chart, you can clearly see that the price has progressed in exactly the same way and that Bitcoin has followed the US stock markets.

Sometimes, when crypto data is positive, the price drops, or when the data is negative, the price rises, and this situation is the cause of that.

Even if the data is negative, the whales that start buying upon seeing the S&P 500 rising cause the price to increase, or even if the data on the crypto side is positive, the whales that see the S&P 500 falling sell, which causes Bitcoin to drop.

That's why closely following the US stock markets is extremely important. Throughout the week, I will frequently share analysis and data, friends.

I wish everyone a beautiful week and plenty of profits.

Good morning☀️

#BTC has fallen to $105,000, filling most of the drop wick. If it falls another 3%, the wick will be completely filled.

At the same time, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also declining. Since #Bitcoin has a very high correlation with US stock markets, Bitcoin follows wherever US stocks go.

Even though no one has been explaining it for a long time, I have constantly pointed out this correlation. Don't neglect to closely follow the US stock markets, friends.

There is no need to act hastily without receiving a clear reversal signal. It is better to buy 2-3% higher rather than trying to catch a falling knife.

If the data turns positive and reversal signals come, I will share it immediately, friends. I wish everyone a beautiful day and plenty of profits.

#Bitcoin whale activity has fallen to -5.

For the past year, $BTC whale activity has progressed in the %90 positive zone and the increases have been supported by whale purchases.

During this process, it has occasionally dipped into the negative zone. The points where whale activity dipped into the negative zone over the past year generally marked local bottoms, after which the upward trend continued. The current level of around -5 suggests that this level may be a local bottom.

It is important that it does not drop to -10 or lower, as transitioning to red while the upward trend continues creates a buying opportunity, while falling below -10 indicates that the decline may continue. Making this distinction is very important.

To prevent this situation and to avoid further losses if the trend continues, we generally prefer to buy after it has transitioned to positive rather than buying while whale activity is negative.

Since it is an important structure that allows us to capture local bottoms, I wanted to share it with you. I will inform you immediately when whale activity transitions to positive.

Good morning☀️

#Bitcoin has started to move sideways around $112k after the decline.

On the first trading day of the week, there was an outflow of $300 million from the ETF, but yesterday there was again an inflow of $100 million.

We have a $BTC that is at a 10% discount compared to last week, so this situation is attracting some investors to buy.

The long-term trend structure is still extremely positive. To be able to say that the short-term outlook has turned positive and that the danger has passed, we need H4 closures above $116k.

After such a closure, the current outlook will be more positive, and we will have escaped from the sideways saw phase that began after the decline, so the breakout above $116k is important⏰

I wish everyone a beautiful day and plenty of profits.

Good morning☀️

We had an unforgettable day with a historic drop in crypto.

Liquidations reported by exchanges are around $20 billion, but the actual amount is estimated to be nearly double that.

Even 2-3 leveraged trades were liquidated, and a major reset occurred across the entire market.

I wish everyone with losses a speedy recovery. Remember that money is not more valuable than you and your loved ones; all losses will somehow be compensated.

We could talk for weeks about what’s happening, but it would be of no benefit. There is no explanation or logic behind the price movements experienced yesterday.

Instead of discussing what has happened, we need to turn a new page and look at what could happen from this point onward and what can be done.

I shared a detailed analysis before the drop started last night and mentioned that we needed to hold at the $117k support, otherwise the decline could deepen.

After the four-hour close below the attempted buy at the $117K support, we stopped out with a loss of less than 1%. It was a risk that could be taken at that moment, and it saved us from almost the entire drop with a small loss.

We were reminded that the only truths are Bitcoin and Ethereum, while all other altcoins are in the hands of certain individuals and could drop by 90% within minutes.

I hope you have a clearer understanding of why we have not been buying altcoins and sharing analysis for the last 2-3 years during today’s drop.

The prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have not yet found their place. Exchanges could not transmit orders, and the programs we use could not pull the data. We need to wait for the prices to stabilize a bit and for the data to return to normal.

I will be sharing detailed analyses regarding what could happen from today onward by thoroughly scanning all the market data, friends.

I wish everyone a beautiful weekend and plenty of profits.

We are in minutes where changes of %10-20-30 occur every second, especially in altcoins.

Be very careful when trading with market orders; do not use them unless necessary.

If your price protection is not active, your order may match %10 20-30 higher or lower.

We are experiencing one of the biggest declines in cryptocurrency history, especially in altcoins.

#Bitcoin experienced a pullback of about 3% after attempting to break its ATH.

As always, the market punishes those who trade after breaking the ATH.

The situation is even worse for those who prefer altcoins instead of $BTC. Even if BTC does not experience a significant drop, altcoins can be devastated during the same period.

Both trend structures and technical data are generally positive. It would have been great if the price had held above the $123k resistance, but as long as the $117k level is maintained, I don't think there is a major issue to worry about.

CME and ETF data also generally maintain their positivity. I will share other data during the day, friends.

Wishing everyone a nice day and abundant profits.

Good morning ☀️

#Bitcoin reached $126,000, making a second attempt at an ATH.

On the first trading day of the week, an inflow of $1.2 billion into the ETF occurred. It’s great that ETF purchases are continuing while $BTC is at its highest historical level.

A daily close was achieved above the $124k resistance, and this was already the first weekly close above $120k.

The amount of open positions on the CME is also rising in proportion to the price. Overall, the data coming from the US on the first trading day of the week was positive.

Technical data and trend structure look positive for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Today, a Bitcoin analysis will be published, and we will take a detailed look at all the data in the video, friends.

Wishing everyone a beautiful day and lots of profits.

#Bitcoin succeeded in holding around the $124k mark despite the lack of volume over the weekend after the ATH attempts.

The price spending a long time at the resistance point already indicated that a new ATH attempt could come, and it wasn't long before the ATH attempt arrived.

Currently, $BTC is still successfully holding in the resistance area.

The technical data is extremely positive. ETF purchases are strong, and overall technical data indicates that the ATH resistance will be broken and the upward trend will continue.

Today, on the first trading day of the week, it is very important to understand how Wall Street savvy traders are trading the ATH breakout in the CME and ETF sectors.

I don't think they will switch to selling and exhibit a negative attitude because they made very aggressive purchases last week. Still, I will provide you with real-time information by following closely, friends.

My personal opinion is that despite minor declines, the upward trend will continue, and Bitcoin will reach the $130-150k range.

Even if Bitcoin reaches $150k, it may experience dozens of declines of up to 10% before reaching this level. During such periods, since there is a lot of long pressure, even if the price is going to rise, it will rise by cleaning out those using high leverage with sudden drops.

During this process, it is very important to be prepared for sudden drops and to definitely stay away from high leverage.

I will frequently share analyses and update the data, friends. I wish everyone a great week and plenty of profits.

#Bitcoin reached an ATH of 125,700 dollars.

#Bitcoin is only %2 away from its ATH level.

The price has been trading very close to the ATH resistance level for about 24 hours.

Generally, when we reach a strong resistance, $BTC does not spend much time at the resistance and starts to pull back as sales come in.

Spending a long time at the very bottom of the resistance indicates that the resistance is weakening and may break soon.

As you know, Bitcoin has a high correlation with US stock markets. After Bitcoin reached its ATH, Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached new ATHs 4-5 times.

However, Bitcoin was unable to refresh its ATH during this process. With the declines, most people have already been sidelined. At this point, the probability of a new ATH attempt and breaking the $124k resistance looks extremely high.

After the resistance breakout, we will target the $130-150k range. In possible pullbacks, the first support is at $117k and the second support is at $112k.

I wish everyone a nice weekend and plenty of profits.