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$SOL — the previous bullish scenario is invalidated; a decline still needs confirmation

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On October 13, a recovery in $SOL was tied to a move back above 118. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 105.4.

On October 15, the loss of 105.4 was confirmed by the daily close. The new scenario projected a decline below 101.7 toward the weekly area of 95.8–98.4.

By October 19, the price of $SOL had pierced 101.7, but there had not yet been a daily close below it. The condition for the decline to continue has not been met. A close above 110.6 will invalidate this hypothesis.

$BNB — a dip below the lower boundary did not invalidate the scenario on a daily basis

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On October 13, growth in $BNB was associated with a move back above 780, toward the 810 area. The lower boundary of the hypothesis was 717.

On October 15, the nearest condition for a recovery was revised to a move back above 746, with 780 as the target. Growth had not yet been confirmed.

By October 19, the price of $BNB had fallen below 717, but daily closes remained above it. The hypothesis remained valid. A move back above 746 and holding there are needed for growth; a close below 717 will invalidate the scenario.

$ATOM — a return to resistance is still ahead

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On October 13, growth in $ATOM was tied to a move back above 1.83 toward the 2.03–2.09 area. The lower boundary of the hypothesis was 1.65.

By October 15, it was already clear that the move back above 1.83 had failed to hold. Further upside required renewed confirmation.

By October 19, the price in $ATOM had pierced 1.65, but the day closed above it. The hypothesis remained intact. A move back above 1.83 and a hold there would support the scenario of a move toward 2.03; a close below 1.65 would invalidate it.

$DASH — support was reclaimed, but later lost on the close

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On October 13, growth in $DASH was tied to a move back above 61. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 48.6.

On October 15, the price briefly dipped below 48.6, but by October 16 the close remained above it. The hypothesis held, and the nearest condition for growth was revised to a move back above 51.1, with a target of 58.

By October 19, $DASH still closed below 48.6: the previous scenario was invalidated. A new recovery requires reclaiming and holding 51.1, toward the 58 area; a close below 45.8 will invalidate the new hypothesis.

$BERA — the growth attempt ended with the loss of support

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On October 13, growth in $BERA was linked to a move above 0.24 toward the 0.268 area. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 0.20.

On October 15, resistance was tested intraday. By October 16, it was clear that the move back above 0.24 had not held. The dip below 0.20 had not yet invalidated the thesis on a daily closing basis.

By October 19, closing prices for $BERA had fallen below 0.20, invalidating the growth thesis. A new bearish scenario requires a break below 0.1628 and a hold there; the target is 0.138. A close above 0.20 will invalidate this scenario.

$ENA — the support bounce proved temporary

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On October 13, growth in $ENA was associated with a rebound above 0.226 toward 0.263. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 0.194.

On October 15, the price dipped below 0.194, but by October 16, the day had closed above it. The hypothesis therefore remained intact; the nearest condition for growth was 0.218.

By October 19, however, $ENA had closed below 0.194. The previous scenario is canceled. A new rise requires a return to and hold above 0.194, with a target of 0.218; a close below 0.174 would invalidate the new hypothesis.

Waves on a chart can be labeled incorrectly

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Wave theory helps describe price movements, but it cannot predict the future with certainty.

Two people can draw waves differently on the same chart $ETH . That’s why a good wave count should state in advance at what price it becomes invalid.

If you simply change the wave numbers after every move, such a forecast cannot be honestly tested.

$DYDX — the loss of support changed the direction of the scenario

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On October 13, growth for $DYDX was linked to a return above 0.135. The lower boundary of the hypothesis was 0.125.

By October 16, a close below 0.125 invalidated the scenario. A new rise required a return to the 0.134 area from 0.125, with invalidation at 0.1167.

By October 19, $DYDX closed below 0.1167 for the day: the new hypothesis was invalidated too. A decline will be confirmed if the price moves below 0.1105 and holds there; the target is 0.1019. A close above 0.125 will invalidate the bearish scenario.

$NOT — two attempts to hold support failed

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On October 13, growth in $NOT was linked to a return above 0.00048. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 0.000419.

By October 16, a daily close below 0.000419 invalidated the scenario. A new recovery required reclaiming 0.00044, with a target of 0.000476, and would be invalidated below 0.000399.

By October 19, the new support for $NOT had also been lost on a daily close. The downside scenario requires a move below 0.00038 and a hold there, with a target of 0.000355. A close above 0.000399 will invalidate this hypothesis.

$LINK —the previous support failed to hold at the close

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On October 13, a rise in $LINK was linked to a move back above 14.4. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 12.09.

On October 15, pressure on support persisted. The nearest recovery condition was revised to a move back to 13.2, with 14.4 as the target.

By October 19, a close below 12.09 in $LINK invalidated the previous scenario. A new recovery requires reclaiming and holding 12.35, with 12.70 as the target. A close below 11.53 will invalidate the new hypothesis.

$WLD — the base is holding; the upper condition has not yet been met

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On October 13, growth for $WLD was linked to a return above 0.57, toward the 0.62 area. The lower boundary of the hypothesis is 0.459.

On October 15, the nearest condition for growth was revised to a return to 0.53, with 0.57 as the target. A recovery had not yet been confirmed.

By October 19, the price of $WLD had dipped below 0.459, but daily closes remained above it. The hypothesis held. Growth requires a return to and hold above 0.53; a close below 0.459 would invalidate the scenario.

$AAVE — historical support stood the test at the close

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On 13 October, $AAVE had already lost its previous support at 160. A new rise was tied to a move back above 166 toward the 180 area; the scenario would be invalidated below 147.

On 15 October, there was still no convincing recovery. The conditions for the new scenario remained unchanged.

By 19 October, $AAVE had dipped below 147, but the latest day closed above it. The hypothesis remained intact, though a move back above 166 and holding that level are still needed for a rise. A close below 147 would invalidate the scenario.

$XRP —the dip turned into a confirmed loss of support

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On October 13, recovery in $XRP was tied to a move back above 1.50. The lower boundary of the hypothesis was around 1.32.

On October 15, the price fell below 1.32 intraday. By October 16, it had closed above that level, and the hypothesis remained intact. The nearest condition for a rise was 1.39.

By October 19, daily closes in $XRP had nevertheless fallen below 1.32. The previous scenario is invalidated. A new rise requires a move back above 1.32, with 1.39 as the target; a close below 1.25 will invalidate the new hypothesis.

$ICP — the base is holding only on closing prices

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On October 13, for $ICP to recover, it needed to move back above 3.4, toward the recent high of 3.61. The lower bound of the hypothesis was 2.86.

On October 15, the nearest condition for a rise was revised to a move back to 3.24. There had still been no convincing recovery into the previous range.

By October 19, $ICP had dipped below 2.86, but the day closed above it. The hypothesis remained intact. A rise requires a move back to and hold above 3.24; a close below 2.86 would invalidate the scenario.

$OP — the move upward proved unstable

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On October 13, growth in $OP was linked to a return above 0.140, toward resistance at 0.151. The lower boundary of the scenario is 0.123.

On October 15, the chart had already seen a daily move above 0.151, followed by a return below it. The continuation hypothesis required a fresh breakout that held.

By October 19, the price of $OP remained below the 0.137–0.140 area. The nearest scenario again calls for a return to 0.140, with 0.151 as the target. A close below 0.123 would invalidate the hypothesis that the base is holding.

$ARB — the recovery in support has not yet become sustainable

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On October 13, growth in $ARB was linked to a move above 0.211 toward the 0.237 area. The lower boundary of the hypothesis is 0.162.

On October 15, the growth condition was revised to a return to 0.20, with 0.228 as the target. By October 16, the historical 0.186 area had been reclaimed, but an upside breakout was still needed.

By October 19, the 0.186 area in $ARB had been lost and reclaimed again. Further progress requires a move above 0.20 and a hold there. A close below 0.162 would invalidate the base hypothesis.

$EGLD —support is holding for now; a reversal has not been confirmed

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On October 13, the recovery outlook for $EGLD was tied to a return above 4.5, toward the 4.8 area. The lower boundary of the thesis is 3.5.

On October 15, the former 3.7 area remained above the price. The nearest condition for growth was revised to a return to 3.9, with 4.5 as the target.

By October 19, the price of $EGLD had dipped below 3.5, but daily closes remained above it. The thesis remained intact. A recovery requires a return to and hold above 3.9; a close below 3.5 would invalidate the scenario.

$GRT — After the uptrend was invalidated, the lower target was tested

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On October 13, growth in $GRT implied a return above 0.030. A daily close below 0.0253 would invalidate the hypothesis.

By October 15, the hypothesis had already been invalidated. The new scenario projected a decline below 0.0244 toward the weekly area at 0.0229.

By October 19, the previous target area of 0.0229 had been tested for $GRT . The new recovery scenario requires reclaiming and holding 0.0244, with a target of 0.0266. A close below 0.0225 would invalidate the new hypothesis.

$PYTH —the breakout occurred, but it failed to hold

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On October 13, the condition for a rise in $PYTH was a move above 0.091, with a target of 0.10–0.104. Until confirmation, the price remained within the previous structure.

By October 16, the day had closed above 0.091. The 0.10 area had already been tested during that day, before the breakout was confirmed by the close. The next test was whether 0.091 could hold as support.

By October 19, $PYTH had closed back below 0.091: the breakout failed to hold. The nearest-term scenario now requires a return to 0.081, with a target of 0.089. A close below 0.070 would invalidate the base hypothesis.

$APT — recovery attempts did not turn into sustained growth

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On October 13, for $APT , the recovery above 0.81 failed to hold. A move above 0.86 was needed for a new rally, with 0.97 as the target; the lower boundary was 0.75.

On October 15, daily closes reclaimed 0.81, but a hold in this area was not yet confirmed.

By October 19, $APT was again trading below 0.81. There has not yet been a daily invalidation at 0.75, but there is also no confirmation of growth. A recovery and hold above 0.86 would keep the 0.97 target in view.