2 cent

Key goals for the drop if the market breaks:

1. $92,000 - $95,000: Major threshold. This is the "gap" zone on CME futures charts. Gaps are often filled, making this area a magnet for price during a strong downtrend.
2. $70,000 - $75,000: Deep correction. Achievable if outflow from BTC-ETF continues, selling pressure from long-term holders increases, and macroeconomic conditions worsen (rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds).
3. Below $70,000: Full-scale capitulation. This scenario occurs with the emergence of a "black swan" – an unforeseen event such as a large exchange hack, stringent prohibitive measures from key regulators (e.g., the U.S. or EU), or a cascading collapse of a major market player.

Drivers that will exacerbate the drop and lead to losses:

· Institutional exit: Acceleration of net outflow from bitcoin ETFs. This is a direct withdrawal of liquidity.
· Macro pressure: Tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (rate hikes or QT) amid a strong dollar. Bitcoin, as a speculative asset, will be the first to be disposed of to transition to cash.
· Miner capitulation cycle: When the price falls below the profitability level.

405,000 BTC (42 billion US dollars). Long-term holders have also capitulated. Analysts' targets of 72,000 US dollars or even 60,000 US dollars are now on the agenda.

$100,000 - $101,000. Analysts from 10x Research note that a breakthrough below this mark could pave the way for a deeper correction - down to $94,000 and even $85,000.
· Altcoins are under even more pressure: The drop in Bitcoin has dragged down major altcoins as well. Ethereum and Solana updated their lows from August at the beginning of November.

$TRUMP became a symbolic starting point for the collapse of the altcoin industry through the liquidity extraction mechanism, which has solid grounds and is supported by data. This project clearly demonstrated how a major player can simultaneously "drain" hundreds of millions of dollars from the market.

💸 $TRUMP as a liquidity extraction mechanism

The launch of $TRUMP in January 2025 not only diverted market attention but also became a classic example of "liquidity removal" — a deliberate activity by a major player to activate crowd orders for profit extraction.

· Bitcoin loses an important support: At the beginning of November, the price of BTC dropped below $106,000, breaking a key support level that had held for the previous weeks. Now the market's attention is focused on the $100,000 - $101,000 zone. Analysts from 10x Research note that a break below this mark could open the way for a deeper correction — down to $94,000 and even $85,000.
· Altcoins are under even greater pressure: The fall of Bitcoin has dragged down major altcoins as well. Ethereum and Solana updated their lows from August at the beginning of November, while XRP fell to a three-week low. This indicates a massive outflow of capital and a lack of liquidity across the ecosystem.
· The consequences of the "Great Liquidation" in October:

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An error that can no longer be corrected

A strategy betting on Bitcoin at the expense of altcoin market development

This has led not only to losses for users but also negative consequences for exchanges in the long term.

This seems entirely justified given the market crash and pressure from sellers.

The current situation poses serious challenges for the entire industry, including exchanges.

Decreased Liquidity and Trading Volumes: With Bitcoin the primary focus, altcoin trading volumes are declining. For exchanges, especially those whose business models relied heavily on fees from active altcoin trading, this could directly impact revenue.

Increased Risks for Projects and Exchanges: Amid a capital shortage, new and even established altcoin projects could face difficulties, and some could even cease support altogether, as happened with Kadena (KDA). For exchanges, this increases the risk of delisting non-viable assets and potential losses.

Rising Cyber ​​Threats: Amid general instability, cybercriminals are becoming more active. BlackBerry warned of targeted hacker attacks on crypto exchanges in Mexico using modified remote access software. Such incidents not only cause direct financial losses but also undermine user trust.

📉 Why the "altseason" didn't happen in 2025

The market is undergoing a structural shift, which is why the classic "altseason," when capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins, did not materialize. Here are the key reasons, supported by data:

· Institutional money has taken a different path: The main flow of capital from institutional investors has not gone into altcoins, but into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and shares of companies that are building cryptocurrency reserves (DAT projects). The volume of crypto-ETFs has exceeded $175 billion, and together with the balances of DAT companies, institutions control about 10% of all Bitcoins and ethers in circulation. This capital has largely bypassed altcoins.
· Retail investors have changed their habits: Traditionally active buyers of altcoins, retail investors (especially from South Korea), have shifted their focus to the same shares of crypto companies and ETFs. Analysts from 10x Research estimated that due to this, the market capitalization of altcoins missed out on about $800 billion.

November 3-4, 2025, which reflect the overall state of the market.

Indicator Value Change (24h)
Total Market Capitalization $3.65 trillion -4.21%
Trading Volume (spot) $104.77 billion +6.05%
Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance 56.72% +0.80%
Ethereum (ETH) Dominance 11.52% -2.36%
Bitcoin (BTC) Price $103,862 —
Ethereum (ETH) Price $3,489 —

🔥 Market Tension Points

In addition to the overall figures, there are several bright spots in the market that amplify negative sentiment.

Unlockings → Sales → Panic → New Sales → Capital

Thus, the November unlockings are not just one of the factors but a systemic trigger that launches a self-sustaining mechanism of decline.


Date Project / Token Approximate Volume and Cost
November 3-10 Ethena (ENA) 171.88 million tokens ($63.05 million)
November 3-10 MEME 3.45 billion tokens ($5.22 million)
November 10 Linea (LINEA) 2.58 billion tokens ($34.2 million)
November 15 WalletConnect (WCT) 131.28 million tokens ($19.2 million)
November 17 Aster (ASTER) 120 million tokens ($118.3 million)

This list is not exhaustive. In addition to these, linear unlockings of major projects such as Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Dogecoin (DOGE) continue in November, with a total value amounting to tens of millions of dollars.

Technical levels: The specified percentages and price levels are benchmarks. The market can either bounce off them or fall below if negative dynamics intensify.
· "Black swans": Unpredictable events (sharp statements from regulators, large-scale hacks, escalation of geopolitical conflict) can sharply worsen the decline and make any forecasts irrelevant.
· Temporary volatility: Within the month, periods of sharp rebounds (for example, by 5-15%) will almost certainly occur, but under the overall downward trend, they will likely be used for new sales.

💎 Conclusion

Thus, November 2025 looks like a month of sustained high pressure on the market. The most likely scenario is further decline with increased volatility.

· Conservative scenario: Bitcoin tests $95,000, while altcoins on average lose 25-30%.
· Pessimistic scenario: Sales intensify, BTC falls to $88,000, causing capitulation in the altcoin sector with losses of 40-60%.

Active Potential Range of Decline Key Factors and Support Levels
Bitcoin (BTC) -10% to -20% from current levels Support levels: $102,000 (October low), then $95,000. A break below $95,000 could open the way to $88,000. Pressure remains due to whale selling, negative macro factors (geopolitics, high volatility), and overall liquidity outflow.
Altcoins (in bulk) -25% to -40% and more for low-quality assets The decline tends to intensify. Quality altcoins (from sectors AI, DePIN, RWA) may show greater resistance. Low-quality assets (meme coins, projects without development) risk crashing by -50% or more. A key driver of the decline is the giant November token unlocks (e.g., Aster, Linea), which flood the market with hundreds of millions of dollars in new coins.

November 2025 looks like a month of high pressure on the market. The most likely scenario is further decline with increased volatility.

· Conservative scenario: Bitcoin tests $95,000, while altcoins on average lose 25-30%.
· Pessimistic scenario: Sales intensify, BTC drops to $88,000, triggering capitulation in the altcoin sector with losses of 40-60% or more.

❄️ Large unlocks of November 2025 as a trigger of the crypto winter

Here’s how these events shape a negative cycle leading to a deep winter:

Start of the crypto winter

Thus, the November unlocks are not just one of the factors, but a systemic trigger that initiates a self-sustaining mechanism of decline.

· Unlocks → Sell-offs → Panic → New sell-offs → Capitulation.

This cycle will continue until the market reaches a bottom where no weak hands remain, whose faith can be betrayed. "Crypto winter" is the process of reaching this bottom, and November 2025 looks like its official start.

📅 Key Token Unlocks in November 2025

The table below lists some of the major unlocks scheduled for November that may impact the market.

Date Project / Token Estimated Volume and Value
November 3-10 Ethena (ENA) 171.88 million tokens ($63.05 million)
November 3-10 MEME 3.45 billion tokens ($5.22 million)
November 10 Linea (LINEA) 2.58 billion tokens ($34.2 million)
November 15 WalletConnect (WCT) 131.28 million tokens ($19.2 million)
November 17 Aster (ASTER) 120 million tokens ($118.3 million)

This list is not exhaustive. In addition to these, linear unlocks continue in November for major projects like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Dogecoin (DOGE), with a total value in the tens of millions of dollars.

❄️ Why this could lead to an "altcoin winter"

November 2025 begins under ongoing pressure, and the risks of further sell-offs remain. In the short term, a sideways movement scenario within a corridor with dips on bad news looks the most likely.

🔍 CZ distances himself: facts and context

Event Details and Significance
Resignation from CEO position of Binance (2023) CZ left the position of CEO as part of a global agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, which included a fine of $4.3 billion. This was a forced step, not a voluntary decision.
Cancellation of token launch in Dubai (2025) In April 2025, CZ publicly canceled the announcement of a new token at an event in Dubai, stating: "I am not allowed to make such announcements." This is a direct consequence of his legal status and the agreement with the authorities.
CZ's official status remains as a regular shareholder of Binance, but he is not permitted to hold executive positions in the company until 2028. His public appearances and participation in new projects are strictly limited.

💡 Why is this happening?

Your phrase "it smells burnt" accurately reflects the essence. CZ is not just "stepping back" — he is acting within strict legal constraints.

· The agreement with regulators does not allow him to make public statements that could be interpreted as promoting specific assets or projects.
· His low public profile is a survival strategy for both him personally and for the entire Binance company.

📅 Historical data: from halving to peak

The table below shows data on three completed cycles, where a clear pattern is visible — it took over a year from halving to peak price.

Cycle Halving date Peak date (ATH) Number of days from halving to peak
Second July 9, 2016 December 16, 2017 ($19,665) 525 days
Third May 11, 2020 November 10, 2021 ($69,044) 549 days
Fourth April 20, 2024 August 14, 2025 ($124,128) 481 days

What can be seen from history?

· Cycles tend to lengthen: The second cycle lasted 525 days, the third — 549 days.
· The current cycle (4th) was an exception: The peak was reached in 481 days, which is 68 days earlier than in the 2021 cycle, and exactly matches the historical average for the first three cycles.

📅 Approximately 2.5 years until the halving

Based on search data, the next halving is expected to occur in 2028. The exact date is calculated based on blocks, but most estimates agree on March-April 2028.

From today, November 3, 2025, there are about 2 years and 5 months left until this event.