2 cent

Current situation: ETH is showing weakness, with a significant capital outflow (555 million dollars per week), which reduces the likelihood of a forthcoming "altseason".
· Key level: Inability to return above $3,300 in the short term indicates risks of further decline.

📉 Forecasts for Decline (Relative Consensus)

In the event of Bitcoin falling to the specified levels, analysts expect a proportional decrease in Ethereum as well.

1. Fundstrat (KuCoin News)

· BTC Forecast: $60,000 – $65,000 at the beginning of 2026.
· ETH Forecast: $1,800 – $2,000 at the beginning of 2026.
· Context: Analysts expect subsequent recovery by the end of the year.

Fears of a Deep Drop

· Bloomberg Intelligence's strategist allows for Bitcoin to drop to $10,000 in 2026, which would negatively impact all altcoins, including Ethereum.
· According to CCN's estimates, Ethereum could fall to $800–$2,500 by the end of 2026 if a certain corrective wave pattern is confirmed.

Pessimistic scenarios

· Bloomberg: Predicts a collapse of Bitcoin to $10,000 in 2026 due to "post-inflationary deflation" and the collapse of speculative assets.
· Trader Peter Brandt: Allows for a fall of Bitcoin to $25,000 in 2026, citing a decrease in cycle profitability.
· CryptoQuant: Expects the main bearish trend to reverse in 2026. Sees a possible bottom at $56,000 (according to a historical indicator) in the second half of 2026, with intermediate support around $70,000 in 3-6 months.

In such an uncertain situation, it is important to follow the right strategy:

1. Do not try to guess the bottom. The exact moment of the market bottom cannot be predicted. Buying in an attempt to catch the absolute minimum is a high-risk strategy.
2. Watch key levels. The price zones mentioned above ($80,000, $70,000, $95,000) can serve as benchmarks for the strength or weakness of the market.
3. Consider a DCA strategy. Gradual accumulation (dollar-cost averaging) during a downturn allows you to avoid dependence on volatility and emotions.
4. Prepare "dry powder." Keep part of your capital in liquidity (for example, in stablecoins) to be able to act when clear reversal signals or interesting prices appear.

Since our discussion shows that you are primarily concerned about capital preservation, it may be worth focusing not on finding the bottom but on reviewing the portfolio structure.

📉 Signs and Predictions for the Bear Market

Technical Picture and Sentiments

· Trend: Since the beginning of October, a downward trend has been observed with a series of lower highs. Bitcoin has failed to hold above $95,000.
· Sentiments: The average RSI index of the market is in the oversold zone (~38.5), which theoretically indicates the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the overall sentiment is "extreme fear."
· Seasonal Factors: In December, pressure increases due to tax-loss harvesting, which adds to selling.

Key Levels and Predictions for Bitcoin
Analysts point to different scenarios and levels:

· Nearest Risk: There is a possibility of falling below $80,000 if sell-offs continue.
· Correction Target: Some experts do not rule out a decline to the $70,000 level in the coming quarter.

Thus, the combination of data — from price action and institutional capital movement to market sentiment and analytical forecasts — indicates that the market is indeed in the process of a sell-off.

Market Sentiment and Analysis

· Fear Index: The value of the fear and greed index has dropped to 16, indicating an 'extreme fear' state among investors.
· Technical Trend: The trend for BTC and ETH is assessed as bearish, with prices below key moving averages.
· Target Forecasts: Analysts see the risk of Bitcoin dropping to $70,000 in the coming months, and in a deeper scenario — to $56,000.

📉 Main signs of a sell-off

Price dynamics (BTC & ETH)

· Bitcoin (BTC): Over the week from December 12 to December 19, it fell by 3.67%, failing to stay above $90,000. The fourth quarter of 2025 may be the most unprofitable for BTC in the last 7 years with a return of -22.71%.
· Ethereum (ETH): Over the same week, it fell by 5.38%, again dropping below $3,000.

Institutional capital (ETF)

· Capital outflow: Spot bitcoin ETFs are recording capital outflows. From December 15 to December 18 alone, the outflow amounted to $338.81 million — the worst figure for December at that time.
· Change of trend: According to CryptoQuant, ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, selling approximately 24,000 BTC, which sharply contrasts with their active purchases earlier.

The market in December 2025 shows signs of an active phase of sale against the backdrop of bearish sentiment.

Analysts, such as the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, state outright that the crypto bear market has already begun and that demand for Bitcoin has sharply slowed after the absorption of the main inflow from the ETF.

🛡️ How to Minimize Risks

Instead of looking for "freebies," focus on protecting your capital:

1. Ignore promises of extraordinary profits. This is the main red flag.
2. Conduct deep analysis (DYOR). Research the team, the project's "white paper," and check which other exchanges the token is traded on.
3. Check liquidity and pools. Use blockchain explorers (like Etherscan) to ensure that liquidity in pools is locked, not controlled by a few addresses.
4. Keep an eye on exchange news. Subscribe to official announcements to be informed about delistings in a timely manner.

💎 Overall Picture and Loss Statistics

These problems are not isolated; they form an overall picture of a high-risk market:

· As of September 2025, cryptocurrency exchange crashes have led to direct investor losses amounting to $30–50 billion.
· The total market value "erased" from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022 is estimated at $1.8 trillion.
· The Fear and Greed Index in November 2025 fell to the level of "extreme fear" (15 points out of 100), indicating panic sentiments.

«Exchanges trade with green moss or lichen»
This "moss" refers to low-quality or outright fraudulent tokens. Their appearance on major exchanges has become commonplace.

· The narrative is exhausted: Even listing on the largest exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, OKX) no longer guarantees growth. For example, in November 2025, new listings on these platforms either showed short-term growth and then immediately fell, or traded in the negative right away.
· Schemes in DeFi: In decentralized finance (DeFi), fake liquidity pools and rug pull schemes thrive, where developers withdraw all funds, leaving investors with worthless tokens.
· Scale of the problem: Since the beginning of 2025, 12345678901 has been identified in Russia.

1. Institutionalization and the "vampire effect" of Bitcoin ETFs. All capital comes through spot Bitcoin ETFs. This institutional money does not circulate in the market but settles in BTC, creating a "vampire effect" that drains liquidity from altcoins.
2. Exit of retail speculators. The market is no longer driven by "casino" frenzy. Capital is moving into crypto-company stocks (DAT) and other traditional instruments. Retail traders, especially from South Korea, were previously the main buyers of altcoins, but their interest has now declined.
3. Exhaustion of narratives and oversupply. Old growth drivers (DeFi, NFT, GameFi) have been exhausted, and new ones are not generating mass excitement. Meanwhile, thousands of new tokens are being released, which dilute the remaining liquidity.
4. High risks and liquidations. Altcoins are traded with huge leverage, making them vulnerable. Any shock (like a political post in October 2025) triggers cascading liquidations and a crash.

📉 Confirmation of the Crisis: The Altseason is 'Dead'

· The 'Death' of the Altseason Narrative. Analysts directly state that the classic 'altseason' — a period when altcoins massively and dramatically outperform Bitcoin — has ceased to exist. This is no longer a cycle, but a structural change in the market.
· Catastrophic Collapse. In 2025, there was a collapse of low-cap altcoins. During the crash on October 10-11, altcoins lost dozens of percent, while Bitcoin lost about 10-12%.
· Missed Capital. According to analysts at 10x Research, the altcoin market missed out on about $800 billion in capitalization due to a shift in investor interest.

Why do whales sell
And record profit or loss
And you don't ?????????????

Profit fixation by "whales": 2025 became a record year for Bitcoin sales by long-time holders — this year they sold coins worth almost $300 billion.
· Change in investor strategies: After the crash at the end of 2025, many investors switched to more active risk management, hedging, and reassessment of overheated assets.
· Specific scenarios instead of general promises: Analysis may show not only growth but also possible scenarios of consolidation or even correction for major coins, as BeInCrypto does in its forecast for 2026.
· Critique of bubbles: Experts directly refer to some segments (for example, companies aggressively accumulating Bitcoin) as a "local bubble".

Data and Reports: Describe the "crypto winter" and the survival period for companies investing in crypto assets (DAT companies) after the crash in October 2025.
· Analytics and Forecasts: Analyst Anatoly Radchenko noted in June the weakness of altcoins (especially Solana), the lack of drivers for growth, and the likelihood of a sideways or bearish trend.
· Ecosystem Issues: It is noted that the DeFi sector did not respond to positive regulatory news, indicating internal weakness.

Capital protection: You secure the current result and protect yourself from further market decline.
· Full flexibility: 'Free' funds become available for new opportunities.

If your portfolio consists of low-liquidity altcoins, it is worth reconsidering it in favor of assets with real utility and high trading volume on reputable exchanges. It is also important to consider the risk of delisting, as happened with Monero.