Criptolouco da Bahia

IMPACT ON CRYPTO INVESTORS!

Investors using stablecoins to buy other cryptos
This is the most affected group.
If the government imposes IOF on:
purchase of stablecoins,
exchange of stablecoins,
or transactions to external brokers/wallets,
then the operational cost rises immediately.
Trading becomes more expensive.
Net profit decreases.
And short-term operations become less advantageous.
For those who do:
DCA with USDT/USDC
Buy BTC/ETH via stablecoin
Arbitrage between exchanges
The impact can be direct on the wallet.

We need to create more taxes to pay for the extravagances of this misgovernment. They know how to squander luxury with the people's money! A party with public funds is rampant.

$LINK

LINK woke up. And when it wakes up, the market feels it.
The range $11.36 to $12.56 has become a hunting ground for the latecomers.
The buyers took control, formed a base, and now the chart has that classic look of a pre-violent breakout.
Entry: $11.36 to $12.56
Target 1: $13.75
Target 2: $14.35
Stop: $10.76

LINK rejected the bottom, gained strength, volume started to come in, and the RSI is accelerating.
This has a clear signature of a big movement coming.
Those who understand are already positioning themselves.
Those who don't understand will chase after the chart later.

$BTC
My real expectations for a possible Bitcoin at $40,000
Speaking directly: the chance exists, but it depends on strong shocks. It is not a normal market movement. Here are the scenarios I see as possible triggers:

1. FED interest rate shock
If the US central bank tightens monetary policy, risk appetite evaporates. This could push BTC down quickly.

2. Massive liquidations in the market
A long squeeze or aggressive deleveraging, with over-leveraged traders being liquidated, can drop the price in a matter of hours.

3. Unexpected regulatory blow
Any sudden movement from regulators, such as restrictions on stablecoins or exchanges, can create widespread panic.

4. Problems with miners or companies exposed to BTC
A sharp drop in hashrate, structural issues, or forced sales by large companies can affect market confidence.

5. Sudden global recession
If the traditional market goes into panic mode, liquidity plummets and Bitcoin follows the decline.

I do not see Bitcoin reaching $40k "by chance." But I see a moderate chance if one of these shocks happens at the same time the market is leveraged.

What are your opinions, can Bitcoin drop to 40K???

$BNB
While half of the market is crying because of the red candle, those who really understand the game are doing what always works: buying assets that are RIDICULOUSLY cheap.
And yes, there are coins today being sold as if the market has lost its mind.

$BNB The market can thrash, but it continues to command
BNB is the heart of the BNB Chain.
Fee? It's BNB.
Utility? BNB.
Burn? BNB.
Meanwhile, the price is down as if the project is dead.
It's always like this before an ignorant surge.

$SOL The fuel of everything that happens in Solana
The entire ecosystem, literally everything, breathes SOL.
The memes, the absurd volumes, the liquidity that runs 24h…
And the market still thinks that SOL “has dropped too much.”
It hasn't dropped: they gave a discount.

$SUI The gem that the market will only notice when it's 3x above
SUI has suffered much more than it deserved.
Solid technology, growing ecosystem, fundamentals shouting…
And the price?
Price of an ignored asset.
Perfect for those who know what they are doing.

The market does not reward those who are afraid.
It rewards those who act when everyone is uncomfortable.
If you believe in cycles, patience, and real growth, these are the moments that change the game, not the green days when everyone buys on impulse.

$SAGA
Currently, SAGA is in a strong rally, but much more supported by:
Listing + technique + speculative narrative
and MUCH less on:
Fundamentals + adoption metrics.
That's why:
Yes, it can stay above $0.11
but only if the volume does not collapse.
If it loses this support, the current movement becomes a "spike" (a rapid, violent, and temporary movement without structural support) and not a reversal.

$TNSR
My honest opinion as an enthusiast.
This movement is great for those who were already in and terrible for those entering now.
Because:
RSI extremely stretched
Parabolic movement almost always corrects 40–70%
Whales can sell at any moment
Volatility will explode
Buying now is entering the crossfire.
Those who are in should protect profits immediately (protection stop).

$ZEC
Zcash at US$ 1,000? This is why it is NOT madness, it’s more about mathematics and timing.
Zcash is the typical sleeping giant: underestimated, ignored, and completely out of the hype… until the market remembers that privacy is power.

1. Regulators attacking privacy equals increased demand.
The more governments pressure, the more the demand for truly private coins grows.
And guess what? Very few deliver real privacy.
ZEC is one of the only ones with military-grade privacy technology (zk-SNARKs).
This creates supply scarcity along with buying pressure, and the PRICE STARTS TO SOAR.

2. "Zcash Halo" update, privacy without setup, faster and cheaper
Zcash is implementing upgrades that make the network:
Lighter
Faster
No setup ceremony (eliminates trust risk)
More prepared for DeFi and real use
This changes the game.
It’s version 2.0 of ZEC, but the market hasn’t priced it in yet.

3. Founders and VCs betting heavily
Zcash has behind it:
Scientists who created the foundation of zk cryptography
Investors who literally financed Web3 before it existed
When these guys keep investing, it’s not charity, they know what’s coming.

4. RIDICULOUSLY low supply
ZEC has a maximum supply lower than Bitcoin’s.
If BTC with 21M coins hit US$ 73,000, just a small migration of liquidity can make ZEC go to:
US$ 700 easily
US$ 1,000 with institutional flow + privacy narrative
No magic needed. It’s pure supply and demand.

5. The day when major exchanges start supporting private coins again… ZEC skyrockets
Today there is regulatory fear.
But, when the pendulum swings (and it ALWAYS swings), Zcash returns to center stage as the most solid privacy coin out there.

When that happens, the rise will not be slow, it will be VIOLENT.

$XRP
I will get straight to the point: while many people still repeat old narratives or wait for "secret integrations", I prefer to look at what REALLY moves price and in the case of XRP, the fundamentals are stronger than ever.
1 The case with the SEC practically redefined the game: for the first time, a U.S. court recognized that XRP is not a security in retail trading. This lifted a giant weight off the market's shoulders and paved the way for exchanges, institutions, and even financial services to start looking at the token without regulatory fear.
2 Ripple continues to push technology where it really matters: payment infrastructure, on-demand liquidity (ODL), solutions for banks, and even technical support in CBDC projects. It’s not theory – it’s real use, real contract, real partnership. ODL uses XRP. Period.
3 Real adoption creates real demand. It’s not hype, it’s simple math. The more companies use on-demand liquidity, the more XRP comes into operational flow.
And while some get caught up in discussions about rumors with the IMF, BIS, or Swift, the truth is that XRP is already at the center of the debate about the future of global payments, not because they promised it, but because the technology delivers.
The question now is not if XRP will have its moment of repricing.
The question is: who will be positioned when that happens?
Because in the end, price reacts to facts, and the facts are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

I am already positioned and what do you all think???

$ENA
In recent months, I have closely followed the evolution of ENA, and I decided to create my own scenario analysis for the next 3 to 6 months. I consider the current moment, with the token being traded in the range of US$ 0.26, a strategic point, but it requires a good understanding of what may happen from here on out.

Optimistic scenario
In the most positive scenario, I see ENA aiming for the range between US$ 0.48 and US$ 0.70. For this, several factors need to align: activation of the fee switch with revenue distribution to holders, truly vigorous institutional buybacks, and a stronger crypto market. If USDe continues to grow and attracts significant liquidity, this scenario becomes quite plausible. For me, this would represent the realization of ENA's governance value.

Realistic scenario
The scenario I consider most likely is a movement between US$ 0.32 and US$ 0.45. Here, I envision the market remaining volatile, but without deep crises. The protocol continues to grow moderately, the treasury accumulates ENA at a healthy pace, and the unlocks don't crash the market. In this case, ENA would perform consistently, following the general sentiment of altcoins.

Pessimistic scenario
I also consider the possibility of a decline. If there is excessive pressure from unlocks, macroeconomic deterioration, or increased regulatory risk, especially regarding synthetic stablecoins, ENA could retreat to the range of US$ 0.18 to US$ 0.26. This would be the scenario where liquidity temporarily disappears and investors flee from risk.
Overall, I see the entry at US$ 0.26 as an attractive point, especially for those operating with a medium-term view. For me, a sustainable close above US$ 0.32 signals a return of strength, while US$ 0.53 remains the major technical target for swing trades.
It is an asset with potential, but it requires attention to the catalysts, mainly the fee switch, the growth of USDe, and the behavior of the unlocks.

$LINK
In recent days, I notice that LINK is clearly losing strength. The drop from 25.64 to the region of 14.00 shows that sellers are still in control, and each recovery attempt has been getting weaker. The moving averages — especially the MA-7 at 14.76 and the MA-25 at 16.21 — remain tilted downwards, and the price is rejected whenever it attempts to touch these regions, reinforcing the continuation of the downtrend.
For me, the level of 13.85 is now the critical point. If it loses this support, I see the price quickly seeking 13.20 and possibly 12.40. On the other hand, I would only start to see any real change in behavior if LINK manages to close above 15.10, which would be the first sign of a reversal attempt.
For now, I continue to understand that the structure is heavy, the momentum is weak, and the market will only show true strength if it breaks again above the MA-7 (average price of the last 07 days).
For the experienced investor, the tactical short-term risk (the possibility of losing $13.85) is more than compensated by the asymmetric long-term reward potential. The current price offers a significant discount compared to the average acquisition cost of the whales ($17.46) and the thesis of unexplored value driven by the TVE of $824.9 billion.

​It is recommended to treat the current weakness as a temporary inefficiency. The ideal strategy is disciplined accumulation in the support zone ($13.85–$15.10), with risk management focused on defending the level of $13.85.

$BTC
Reflections on the BlackRock case in the crypto market:

In recent days, I have been observing the market with heightened attention. Since the news of the fraud of around US$ 500 million hit BlackRock and its HPS division, I noticed a clear change in price behavior, particularly in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows exactly this loss of confidence: after testing the US$ 110,700 region, the asset lost strength and quickly retreated to the US$ 105,000–106,000 zone, a range that now serves as immediate support. This correction was accompanied by a visible increase in selling volume, a classic sign of a temporary escape of institutional capital.
Technically, I see that the RSI on the daily dropped from 68 to close to 55, which confirms a change in short-term momentum. It does not indicate a total reversal, but rather a decompression of overbought conditions after a strong rally. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD crossed downward, reinforcing this scenario of a pause in the upward trend.
If the support at US$ 105,000 is lost, the next relevant technical level is at US$ 102,400, where there is a confluence of the 50-period exponential moving average and a previous consolidation low.
On the other hand, if BTC manages to stay above this level and reacts, the resistance to be overcome is clear at US$ 110,000 to 111,000, a range where the market was rejected shortly after the news.
This moment is a phase of reevaluation. The market is not punishing crypto technology; it is merely pricing in the increase in institutional uncertainty.
Whenever I see this type of noise, I prefer to focus on technical levels and not on the hysteria of headlines. As long as BTC stays above US$ 102,000 and ETH above US$ 3,400, I consider the movement just a healthy correction within a larger upward trend.

The case of BlackRock reminds me that, even when the traditional world wobbles, the chart remains the most honest judge we have.

Congratulations! You deserve all the success you have been achieving! I have already cast my vote.

$FET
Confirmed:

On-chain analysis data (via the Bubblemaps firm) shows that a multisignature wallet linked to Ocean Protocol converted approximately 661 million OCEAN tokens into about 286 million FET, nearly US$ 120 million in estimated value.

It is also noted that of these 286 M FET, approximately 160 M would have been sent to the Binance exchange and 109 M to the OTC trading company GSR Markets.

Fetch.ai announced that it will "abandon all legal action" if Ocean Protocol returns these tokens.

Ocean Protocol has indicated that it is "willing to return" the tokens once it receives a formal written proposal from Fetch.ai.

$FET
What is known!

According to coverage by Cointelegraph, Fetch.ai stated that it would cancel all pending legal claims against Ocean Protocol if the latter returned 286 million FET tokens, valued at approximately US$ 120 million at the time.

Chain data indicates that a multisig wallet linked to Ocean Protocol converted about 661 million OCEAN into 286 million FET, some of which were transferred to exchanges and OTC providers — which fueled allegations of misconduct.

The formal proposal for return still depended on "officially writing" the agreement, according to cited sources.

The agreement appears to be in the formalization stage, meaning: it is not confirmed that all terms have been finalized or that the full return has already occurred.

$FET
Legal and Reputational Implications

Legally, if embezzlement is proven, it can result in international lawsuits (since crypto foundations are typically registered in specific jurisdictions, such as Switzerland or Singapore).

Reputationally, this is damaging for both sides. Ocean Protocol has been trying to position itself as a reference in tokenized data and decentralized AI, but this type of controversy generates distrust among investors and institutional partners.

Market Impact

The FET token (Fetch.ai) has experienced intense volatility, reflecting the climate of uncertainty.

The OCEAN token also felt pressure, with part of the community demanding transparency regarding the multisig addresses and the movements of OceanDAO.

This type of internal dispute usually affects the positive narrative of the decentralized AI sector, which has been growing after the hype of AI and blockchain mergers.

The ones who lose out are the small investors who believed in the project!!!

$BIO
At the moment, I observe BIO going through a phase of strong bullish momentum, supported by very solid short-term fundamentals. After the listing on Upbit, the coin not only showed significant appreciation — surpassing 63% increase in 24h, peaking at US$ 0.1211 — but also recorded a robust jump in trading volume, which for me is a clear indication of new capital inflow and increasing institutional interest.
From a technical perspective, the chart shows a sequence of strong candles, with little rejection at the highs and ascending volume, suggesting that the movement was not a one-off. Additionally, I note that the nearest resistance levels were broken with relative ease, transforming former selling pressure zones into new short-term supports.
The momentum indicators — such as RSI and MACD — indicate a strong upward trend, although I also recognize signs of overbought conditions, which may lead to a healthy technical correction in the next candles. Should this occur, I will be attentive to consolidated support zones, as corrections in strong trends tend to offer strategic entry points.
In summary, I see BIO in a moment of relevant technical strength, backed by recent fundamentals — such as the listing on a major exchange — and by a chart scenario that reinforces the buying sentiment. If the volume remains high and the supports are respected, there is real potential for the continuation of the bullish trend in the short term.

$FET
Short/medium-term projection
Based on the current technical scenario, two possible projections:
Moderate recovery scenario: If the price holds support and there is an external trigger, FET could rise to ~US$ 0.50-0.60 in the coming months.
Decline or stagnation scenario: If the support breaks or there is no volume/attention, the price could retreat to ~US$ 0.20-0.25 or remain sideways for a while.

$FET
The chances of recovery exist, but depend on 3 triggers
1 Clear legal resolution, whether by agreement or favorable decision.
2 Signs of strength from the community and developers, reinforcing confidence in the project.
3 Return of market liquidity, possibly driven by new listings, partnership announcements, or the reactivation of the ASI merger.

Fetch.ai is not in structural collapse; it is in a battle for trust. If it resolves the dispute or demonstrates technical and financial strength, it can recover with surprising speed. But if the litigation drags on, the pressure on the price will remain high.

If the legal dispute prolongs, there will be prolonged pressure on the price, reducing liquidity and driving away institutional investors.
On the other hand, a public agreement or a favorable decision for Fetch.ai could trigger a strong recovery — especially because the market tends to react in an amplified manner to positive legal news.
The positioning of exchanges like Binance and other institutional players will be decisive for the token's momentum in the medium term.

$ENA
Ethena ($ENA ) is in a very delicate technical and fundamental moment, and I have been closely monitoring the behavior of major players — especially institutional whales. In the last 48 hours, wallets associated with Maven 11 have accumulated around 30 million ENA tokens, gradually and silently. This type of movement usually precedes more significant price movements, especially when it occurs alongside relevant fundamental events in the protocol.
The most interesting detail here is that the protocol has reached its fee-sharing limit, which, in practice, can unlock yields exceeding 5% for ENA holders. This is a very clear incentive trigger for the market — and historically, yield activators tend to attract new capital, mainly from institutional profiles and investors seeking passive income flow.
However, there is a glaring contrast between the fundamentals and the current pricing of the token. Even with a TVL of approximately $13.9 billion, the price of ENA has shown weak performance, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still defensive. Investors seem to be more cautious than euphoric, waiting for more solid confirmations before taking more aggressive positions.
This divergence between strong fundamentals and sideways/weak price often creates asymmetric opportunities. If the whales are correct in anticipating a movement, we could see a rapid and intense repricing as soon as the market 'wakes up' to the new yield flow and the strength of the TVL.
On the other hand, if the macro sentiment remains stuck, even good fundamentals may take some time to reflect on the chart. In summary: ENA is compressed, with clear signs of institutional movement and positive fundamental triggers — but the market is still 'holding its breath,' waiting for the catalyst that confirms or invalidates this bullish reading.