$ENA

In recent months, I have closely followed the evolution of ENA, and I decided to create my own scenario analysis for the next 3 to 6 months. I consider the current moment, with the token being traded in the range of US$ 0.26, a strategic point, but it requires a good understanding of what may happen from here on out.

Optimistic scenario

In the most positive scenario, I see ENA aiming for the range between US$ 0.48 and US$ 0.70. For this, several factors need to align: activation of the fee switch with revenue distribution to holders, truly vigorous institutional buybacks, and a stronger crypto market. If USDe continues to grow and attracts significant liquidity, this scenario becomes quite plausible. For me, this would represent the realization of ENA's governance value.

Realistic scenario

The scenario I consider most likely is a movement between US$ 0.32 and US$ 0.45. Here, I envision the market remaining volatile, but without deep crises. The protocol continues to grow moderately, the treasury accumulates ENA at a healthy pace, and the unlocks don't crash the market. In this case, ENA would perform consistently, following the general sentiment of altcoins.

Pessimistic scenario

I also consider the possibility of a decline. If there is excessive pressure from unlocks, macroeconomic deterioration, or increased regulatory risk, especially regarding synthetic stablecoins, ENA could retreat to the range of US$ 0.18 to US$ 0.26. This would be the scenario where liquidity temporarily disappears and investors flee from risk.

Overall, I see the entry at US$ 0.26 as an attractive point, especially for those operating with a medium-term view. For me, a sustainable close above US$ 0.32 signals a return of strength, while US$ 0.53 remains the major technical target for swing trades.

It is an asset with potential, but it requires attention to the catalysts, mainly the fee switch, the growth of USDe, and the behavior of the unlocks.