$BTC

My real expectations for a possible Bitcoin at $40,000

Speaking directly: the chance exists, but it depends on strong shocks. It is not a normal market movement. Here are the scenarios I see as possible triggers:

1. FED interest rate shock

If the US central bank tightens monetary policy, risk appetite evaporates. This could push BTC down quickly.

2. Massive liquidations in the market

A long squeeze or aggressive deleveraging, with over-leveraged traders being liquidated, can drop the price in a matter of hours.

3. Unexpected regulatory blow

Any sudden movement from regulators, such as restrictions on stablecoins or exchanges, can create widespread panic.

4. Problems with miners or companies exposed to BTC

A sharp drop in hashrate, structural issues, or forced sales by large companies can affect market confidence.

5. Sudden global recession

If the traditional market goes into panic mode, liquidity plummets and Bitcoin follows the decline.

I do not see Bitcoin reaching $40k "by chance." But I see a moderate chance if one of these shocks happens at the same time the market is leveraged.

What are your opinions, can Bitcoin drop to 40K???