Bitcoin weekly is still worth paying attention to.
A bullish close has already appeared, but the selling area is still in the way. Don’t FOMO—wait for confirmation and watch the range $60K–$50K for a long-term accumulation scenario.
BTC Has the Potential to Enter an Accumulation Zone If It Drops to This Area
Bitcoin is currently still moving within a long-term trend path based on the BTC vs Log Trend analysis using Standard Deviation calculations.
Interestingly, each time BTC price touches the lower deviation area or the red zone on this chart, a bottoming phase or a price base formation area usually appears.
Based on this model, the area to watch is in the range of $53,000 to $56,000. If BTC corrects again toward that zone, this area could become an opportunity for gradual accumulation.
However, remember that models like this are not a definite prediction tool. The crypto market is still influenced by global sentiment, liquidity, and macroeconomic conditions.
For traders, the most important thing isn’t chasing price during the hype, but having a plan when the market offers a discount.
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Don’t just look at charts—understand the economic conditions too.
As a trader or investor, understanding basic economic terms is a must. Because market movement isn’t only about candlesticks going up or down—it’s also influenced by inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and even market behavior.
TOTAL3 is still consolidating. Has the altseason not started yet? 👀
TOTAL3 (crypto market cap excluding BTC & ETH) is still moving below the resistance trendline. As long as there is no valid breakout, the potential for broad altcoin upside remains limited.
Many altcoins have indeed started moving, but that’s not enough to call it an altseason.
What to pay attention to: • Trendline breakout with increasing volume. • Daily candle close above resistance. • A successful retest that holds as support.
If those three things happen, the chances of capital flowing into altcoins could become even larger.
Don’t FOMO just because a few coins are up. In the market, what gets paid isn’t the one who enters the fastest, but the one who’s most disciplined in waiting for confirmation. Humans really love chasing trains that haven’t stopped yet. The chart doesn’t care about your curiosity.
Do you agree that a TOTAL3 breakout could be the trigger for the next altseason? 👇
BTC’s price may not have hit its lowest point yet. In some previous cycles, the heaviest selling pressure actually showed up towards the end of the bearish phase.
Scenarios to watch:
$64K → $60K → rebound to $70K → drop to $50K → capitulation phase
Will the next decline be an opportunity to accumulate, or is it the start of fresh pressure?
Save this analysis and compare it with Bitcoin’s movement in the next few weeks.
⚠️ This content is for education and market analysis only. Not an invitation to buy or sell crypto assets.
Tonight, market attention will be focused on two US economic data releases that have the potential to trigger high volatility, especially for gold.
⏰ 19:15 WIB - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Consensus expects only 68 thousand jobs added, down from the previous 98 thousand. If the result comes in lower than expectations, it indicates the labor market is starting to weaken. After the prior Jobs Openings (JOLTS) data showed a decline, weakness in the hiring sector could strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conditions like this are generally positive sentiment for gold prices.
⏰ 21:00 WIB - ISM Services PMI On the other hand, service sector data is expected to strengthen, including the Prices Paid component, which still shows inflationary pressure. If the result matches or even exceeds expectations, the US dollar and bond yields could rise, which may weigh on gold’s movement.
Conclusion: Tonight’s signals for gold are still mixed. ADP data could be a fresh tailwind for gold, but ISM Services could reverse direction if the result is stronger than expected.
So, don’t rush into FOMO. Wait for the data release, watch the market reaction, and then let the price provide confirmation. The market really likes to get people rushing in—only to get hit by the next candle. A tradition that, unfortunately, still lives on.
🚨 Goldman Sachs Sends a Signal. Is the Stock Market Already Too Crowded?
Goldman Sachs’ Equity Sentiment indicator shows that investor positioning in the U.S. stock market is currently at an overextended level. Conditions like this usually indicate that too many market participants have already entered the same positions.
Historically, when the indicator is in a high area, the chance of a correction or consolidation phase increases before the uptrend resumes. This doesn’t necessarily mean the market will be bearish, but the risk of a short-term pullback becomes greater.
For crypto traders, movements in the U.S. stock market remain important to watch. If major indexes come under pressure, risk assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins may also be impacted.
Stay disciplined with risk management and don’t chase prices with FOMO amid sentiment that’s starting to heat up.
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Is the Bottom Bitcoin Close? On-Chain Data Starts to Send Signals
One widely used on-chain indicator for reading market cycles is Supply in Profit Market Bands. This indicator measures how much Bitcoin supply is still in a profitable condition, then divides it into several market phases, starting from accumulation, distribution, and up to the bull market.
Interestingly, in the previous cycle, this indicator tended to stay in the bottom area for more than 3 months before Bitcoin actually formed a price bottom and began a new uptrend.
The same pattern is showing again in the current cycle. This suggests that selling pressure is starting to ease and the chance of a bottom forming is getting higher.
Even so, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will become bullish immediately in the near term. The bottom-formation phase usually takes time and is still marked by high volatility. Therefore, traders should remain disciplined with risk management, while long-term investors can start paying attention to gradual accumulation opportunities.
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Apple Gives Signals, S&P 500 and Nasdaq May Continue Correction
Apple’s stock movement is again drawing attention after a pattern appeared which, in several previous periods, was often followed by a correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Although it is not a guarantee that the market will fall, signals like this are worth including in the list of indicators to monitor.
This condition also aligns with growing concerns about the technology sector, which has recently been losing momentum. If the pressure continues, it is not impossible that the US stock market could enter a consolidation phase or a correction in the coming period.
For crypto traders, this development is important to watch because the movement of risky assets often correlates. When sentiment in the stock market weakens, volatility in the crypto market may also increase.
Stay disciplined with risk management and don’t rely on just one indicator to make trading decisions.
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Bitcoin is still showing pressure on the weekly timeframe. The current area is interesting to watch, but always prioritize confirmation before making any decision.
Focus on the plan, not emotions. The market will always provide opportunities for those who are patient.
Save this post and Follow Menjadi Trader for daily crypto analysis updates. $BTC
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This Single Number Explains Why Gold Is Still Hard to Fly
Market expectations for a September rate hike by the Fed briefly reached a level equivalent to 108% from a single 25-basis-point increase. This figure above 100% isn’t a literal probability, but it indicates the market temporarily priced in a very strong likelihood of a hike, even opening the possibility of a more aggressive move.
Since mid-June, expectations for rate hikes have continued to hold above the 50% threshold. In other words, the market is still more worried about the Fed raising rates than it is hoping for a cut.
This situation is not friendly for gold. High rate expectations typically keep bond yields and the dollar strong, while gold offers no yield. As a result, every rise in gold is at risk of being capped as long as the “high-for-long rates” narrative hasn’t truly gone away.
For traders, don’t rush to chase a gold rally just because the price bounced. Monitor rate-hike expectations, US 10Y, DXY, and US inflation data. Gold may have more room to move higher when the market starts to leave behind the rate-hike scenario.
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