BitJT
14 Posts
BitJT
1.专注交易执行与风控纠偏
2.不预测短期涨跌，聚焦盘前结构与交易纪律
3.减少乱做，优先提升执行一致性
Occasional Trader
8.3 Years
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I started working at an exchange at the end of 2017, officially entering the cryptocurrency world.
Since then, I've never left this circle.
During this time, I've experienced several market cycles and witnessed many people come and go.
In a bull market, it's not hard to feel like you understand; it's hard to survive in a bear market.
My own trading experience isn't anything to brag about.
I've made a lot of money, but I've also had countless margin calls.
I've fallen into all the traps: chasing highs, holding onto losing positions, getting carried away, randomly changing stop-loss orders, and trying to recoup losses immediately.
I used to think I lost to the market, but I've gradually come to realize that many times I lost to myself.
Even if I got the direction right, if my execution was wrong, I still lost.
I started trading full-time in 2024.
I wouldn't say I've "left" the industry yet, but at least I'm doing it like a professional trader: reviewing past trades, correcting mistakes, controlling errors, and gradually refining my execution.
I'll be documenting my trading growth here from now on.
Mainly for myself, and also to leave a record.
Since then, I've never left this circle.
During this time, I've experienced several market cycles and witnessed many people come and go.
In a bull market, it's not hard to feel like you understand; it's hard to survive in a bear market.
My own trading experience isn't anything to brag about.
I've made a lot of money, but I've also had countless margin calls.
I've fallen into all the traps: chasing highs, holding onto losing positions, getting carried away, randomly changing stop-loss orders, and trying to recoup losses immediately.
I used to think I lost to the market, but I've gradually come to realize that many times I lost to myself.
Even if I got the direction right, if my execution was wrong, I still lost.
I started trading full-time in 2024.
I wouldn't say I've "left" the industry yet, but at least I'm doing it like a professional trader: reviewing past trades, correcting mistakes, controlling errors, and gradually refining my execution.
I'll be documenting my trading growth here from now on.
Mainly for myself, and also to leave a record.
Continue tracking the reliability of the system’s automatic drawing of box ranges.
For BTC/USDT 15m, around 03:41 the system automatically identified a sideways range:
Upper boundary 64,404
Lower boundary 63,602
The validation process behind it is fairly complete:
Around 08:15, the price touched the upper boundary of the box upward, but did not effectively break and hold above it.
Around 09:55, the price fell below the lower boundary of the box, then rebounded back near the lower boundary, but clearly did not regain the box.
After that, it continued to accelerate downward.
These kinds of samples are very important to me. The focus is not on explaining the market after the fact, but on whether the system first draws the structure and then, observing subsequent price action, it reacts around that structure.
Continuing in this direction: automatically finding structure, automatically drawing box ranges, and automatically tracking breakouts.
Not investment advice.
#BTC #BTCUSDT #量化交易系统
For BTC/USDT 15m, around 03:41 the system automatically identified a sideways range:
Upper boundary 64,404
Lower boundary 63,602
The validation process behind it is fairly complete:
Around 08:15, the price touched the upper boundary of the box upward, but did not effectively break and hold above it.
Around 09:55, the price fell below the lower boundary of the box, then rebounded back near the lower boundary, but clearly did not regain the box.
After that, it continued to accelerate downward.
These kinds of samples are very important to me. The focus is not on explaining the market after the fact, but on whether the system first draws the structure and then, observing subsequent price action, it reacts around that structure.
Continuing in this direction: automatically finding structure, automatically drawing box ranges, and automatically tracking breakouts.
Not investment advice.
#BTC #BTCUSDT #量化交易系统
I've been tinkering with a trading system lately.
This box on the BTC 4H chart was drawn automatically by the system.
The upper boundary is around 64,105, and the lower boundary is around 61,855—now the price has broken below the lower boundary.
What do you think of how well this box is detected?
I plan to share more screenshots from different timeframes later, while tuning it as I run.
Not investment advice.
This box on the BTC 4H chart was drawn automatically by the system.
The upper boundary is around 64,105, and the lower boundary is around 61,855—now the price has broken below the lower boundary.
What do you think of how well this box is detected?
I plan to share more screenshots from different timeframes later, while tuning it as I run.
Not investment advice.
Mark
GiGiZ 發財豬
·
--
The Shocking Chess Game Behind the Gold Surge: Did a Single Announcement from Hong Kong Directly Shake the Dollar's Cheese?
Friends, the gold market has recently thrown out a heavy bomb.
If you have gold in hand, or are thinking about getting in, you must understand today's logic. This concerns whether you can stay steady after the gold price surges or if you will be shaken off.
The origin of the matter is that the Hong Kong Financial Secretary recently announced: within three years, the gold storage capacity must exceed 2000 tons.
Many people, upon seeing this number, first react by gasping: Is Hong Kong going to spend money madly to buy 2000 tons of gold?
If you think so, then you're really off track. This 2000 tons is not the purchase volume, but the carrying capacity.
If you have gold in hand, or are thinking about getting in, you must understand today's logic. This concerns whether you can stay steady after the gold price surges or if you will be shaken off.
The origin of the matter is that the Hong Kong Financial Secretary recently announced: within three years, the gold storage capacity must exceed 2000 tons.
Many people, upon seeing this number, first react by gasping: Is Hong Kong going to spend money madly to buy 2000 tons of gold?
If you think so, then you're really off track. This 2000 tons is not the purchase volume, but the carrying capacity.
Mark
TheStreet Roundtable
·
--
Billionaire Ray Dalio warns of major threat to investor wealth
Gold vs Bitcoin: Which one is a better store of value? (2:59)
If billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is right, the biggest risk for investors today is not volatility, but wealth destruction.
Dalio has been sharing chapters from his book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" on X. The book was published right in the middle of the pandemic in 2021.
It was the time when the shock of the unknown had died, and people were learning to live with Covid-19.
Related: Crypto market sees $2B in liquidations — bigger than Covid and FTX crashes
Markets, governments and central banks were injecting trillions of dollars to ensure recovery from the crash of 2020.
While this led to an increase in retail participation and better risk appetite, volatility remained high and inflation fears loomed large.
The book made sense for investors at that time who were trying to navigate the landscape in unpredictable scenarios.
But Dalio is revisiting one of the concepts he mentioned in the book called "Big Cycle." And market conditions today indicate that we might see history repeat itself.
Related: Ray Dalio issues stark warning on the global order
The threat Dalio sees
"Big Cycle" is a long-term pattern that often lasts for decades. This is where countries rise and decline economically, politically, and financially.
The most dangerous part of this cycle is its late stage. Dalio warns that this is the stage when fortunes are wiped out, currencies are devalued, and traditional portfolios fail to protect capital.
As per Dalio, markets are primarily driven by four forces, which are growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates. Governments influence all four through fiscal and monetary policy. When debt builds to unsustainable levels, policymakers typically respond by printing money, suppressing interest rates, and restructuring obligations.
The result? Financial assets like stocks, bonds, and cash can lose real value.
In his latest chapters, Dalio argues that credit-fueled financial promises now exceed real tangible assets, an indicator of late-cycle conditions.
Dalio cautions investors against studying only the post-1950 U.S. boom, which he describes as an unusually stable and prosperous period. He directs investors to look at the 1900s when seven of the 10 leading global powers experienced near-total wealth destruction due to wars, defaults, or internal upheaval. In many cases, investors saw their savings confiscated, markets shut down, or currencies collapse.
"If I hadn’t looked at these returns in the period before the new world order began in 1945, I wouldn’t have seen these periods of destruction. And had I not looked back 500 years around the world, I wouldn’t have seen that this has happened repeatedly almost everywhere."
Dalio points out similar market situations and suggests investors build “all-weather” portfolios that are diversified. Blend equities for growth, gold and commodities for protection, and be cautious on long-term bonds, especially in environments where inflation and currency risk remain elevated.
Popular on TheStreet Roundtable:
Trump imposes major global tariffs after Supreme Court's decision
Rich Dad Poor Dad buys Bitcoin again
Viral AI agent bans ‘Bitcoin,' ‘crypto’ mentions
Can Bitcoin enter the conversation?
Bitcoin (BTC) was not around during past Big Cycles. But its core design directly addresses several of the risks Dalio outlines.
Unlike bonds or fiat currencies, Bitcoin is not a promise to pay. It is not backed by a government balance sheet. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it resistant to monetary expansion.
In late-cycle environments where central banks print to relieve debt burdens, scarce assets tend to outperform cash and long-duration bonds. Gold has traditionally played that role.
Many Bitcoin proponents argue that its digital scarcity could serve a similar function, particularly for younger investors who are more comfortable with digital infrastructure.
That does not mean Bitcoin is immune to liquidity cycles. In fact, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and global risk appetite. When discount rates rise and liquidity tightens, speculative assets often suffer.
Related: Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Government Money Printing
Beyond the 60/40 portfolio
At the core of Dalio’s research is diversification beyond traditional stocks and bonds. While it can extend to Bitcoin, we need to remember that it is still young.
It has not been tested through a full geopolitical restructuring cycle like the early 20th century. It remains volatile, politically debated, and regulatory-sensitive.
In fact, even comparatively milder political turmoils like the U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, the Greenland debate, and others have affected Bitcoin's price.
At press time, Bitcoin had dropped 25.4% in the past 30 days, trading at $64,476.82.
Yet if Dalio’s late-cycle thesis holds, then assets outside the traditional financial promise system may gain strategic importance.
The key takeaway from Dalio is to not panic but be prepared to save one's purchasing power.
Related: Billionaire Ray Dalio encourages investors to embrace bitcoin over debt assets
If billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is right, the biggest risk for investors today is not volatility, but wealth destruction.
Dalio has been sharing chapters from his book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" on X. The book was published right in the middle of the pandemic in 2021.
It was the time when the shock of the unknown had died, and people were learning to live with Covid-19.
Related: Crypto market sees $2B in liquidations — bigger than Covid and FTX crashes
Markets, governments and central banks were injecting trillions of dollars to ensure recovery from the crash of 2020.
While this led to an increase in retail participation and better risk appetite, volatility remained high and inflation fears loomed large.
The book made sense for investors at that time who were trying to navigate the landscape in unpredictable scenarios.
But Dalio is revisiting one of the concepts he mentioned in the book called "Big Cycle." And market conditions today indicate that we might see history repeat itself.
Related: Ray Dalio issues stark warning on the global order
The threat Dalio sees
"Big Cycle" is a long-term pattern that often lasts for decades. This is where countries rise and decline economically, politically, and financially.
The most dangerous part of this cycle is its late stage. Dalio warns that this is the stage when fortunes are wiped out, currencies are devalued, and traditional portfolios fail to protect capital.
As per Dalio, markets are primarily driven by four forces, which are growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates. Governments influence all four through fiscal and monetary policy. When debt builds to unsustainable levels, policymakers typically respond by printing money, suppressing interest rates, and restructuring obligations.
The result? Financial assets like stocks, bonds, and cash can lose real value.
In his latest chapters, Dalio argues that credit-fueled financial promises now exceed real tangible assets, an indicator of late-cycle conditions.
Dalio cautions investors against studying only the post-1950 U.S. boom, which he describes as an unusually stable and prosperous period. He directs investors to look at the 1900s when seven of the 10 leading global powers experienced near-total wealth destruction due to wars, defaults, or internal upheaval. In many cases, investors saw their savings confiscated, markets shut down, or currencies collapse.
"If I hadn’t looked at these returns in the period before the new world order began in 1945, I wouldn’t have seen these periods of destruction. And had I not looked back 500 years around the world, I wouldn’t have seen that this has happened repeatedly almost everywhere."
Dalio points out similar market situations and suggests investors build “all-weather” portfolios that are diversified. Blend equities for growth, gold and commodities for protection, and be cautious on long-term bonds, especially in environments where inflation and currency risk remain elevated.
Popular on TheStreet Roundtable:
Trump imposes major global tariffs after Supreme Court's decision
Rich Dad Poor Dad buys Bitcoin again
Viral AI agent bans ‘Bitcoin,' ‘crypto’ mentions
Can Bitcoin enter the conversation?
Bitcoin (BTC) was not around during past Big Cycles. But its core design directly addresses several of the risks Dalio outlines.
Unlike bonds or fiat currencies, Bitcoin is not a promise to pay. It is not backed by a government balance sheet. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it resistant to monetary expansion.
In late-cycle environments where central banks print to relieve debt burdens, scarce assets tend to outperform cash and long-duration bonds. Gold has traditionally played that role.
Many Bitcoin proponents argue that its digital scarcity could serve a similar function, particularly for younger investors who are more comfortable with digital infrastructure.
That does not mean Bitcoin is immune to liquidity cycles. In fact, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and global risk appetite. When discount rates rise and liquidity tightens, speculative assets often suffer.
Related: Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Government Money Printing
Beyond the 60/40 portfolio
At the core of Dalio’s research is diversification beyond traditional stocks and bonds. While it can extend to Bitcoin, we need to remember that it is still young.
It has not been tested through a full geopolitical restructuring cycle like the early 20th century. It remains volatile, politically debated, and regulatory-sensitive.
In fact, even comparatively milder political turmoils like the U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, the Greenland debate, and others have affected Bitcoin's price.
At press time, Bitcoin had dropped 25.4% in the past 30 days, trading at $64,476.82.
Yet if Dalio’s late-cycle thesis holds, then assets outside the traditional financial promise system may gain strategic importance.
The key takeaway from Dalio is to not panic but be prepared to save one's purchasing power.
Related: Billionaire Ray Dalio encourages investors to embrace bitcoin over debt assets
2026/2/25 Pre-market (BTC/ETH)
Today, let's set the tone: this is not a favorable market.
DXY is relatively strong, and the 10Y is still above 4%; in this environment, I don't want to be aggressive right away.
So today, it's the same as usual: prioritize right-side confirmation, no premature moves.
Especially in a pullback market, it can look very strong, and chasing it will likely lead to losses on the retracement.
Today, I'm only watching two switches:
1.$BTC : 66,200–66,700 how this segment performs
1) If this segment can stabilize, it indicates a chance for recovery to upgrade
2) If it shoots up and can't stabilize, then what I want to see more is the “failed pullback” structure
2.$ETH
: Can it hold the retest around 1900
1) If it holds and turns strong again, then consider following
2) If it can't hold, just look at it as a pullback, don't anticipate a reversal
Current market sentiment
1) The market is indeed recovering, but it feels more like mainstream coins are leading
2) The sentiment is still in the fear zone, indicating that pullbacks can be quick, but sustainability may not be good
3) I won't spread my net on altcoins today, just pick the ones with clear structures
Target observation (today)
A: BTC/ETH (main focus)
B: SOL (high volatility, only trade right side, no bottom fishing)
C: BNB (following, will assess based on 1H structure)
Execution reminders (for myself)
1) A pullback does not equal a reversal
2) No action without confirmation
3) Single trade risk remains the same 0.5%–1%
4) Don't pile on too many positions in the same direction for BTC/ETH/SOL
Just focus on these two switches, don’t look at too much.
Today’s work is about “the segment after confirmation,” not about guessing the lowest or highest points.
This is only a personal pre-market record and does not constitute investment advice.
Today, let's set the tone: this is not a favorable market.
DXY is relatively strong, and the 10Y is still above 4%; in this environment, I don't want to be aggressive right away.
So today, it's the same as usual: prioritize right-side confirmation, no premature moves.
Especially in a pullback market, it can look very strong, and chasing it will likely lead to losses on the retracement.
Today, I'm only watching two switches:
1.$BTC : 66,200–66,700 how this segment performs
1) If this segment can stabilize, it indicates a chance for recovery to upgrade
2) If it shoots up and can't stabilize, then what I want to see more is the “failed pullback” structure
2.$ETH
: Can it hold the retest around 1900
1) If it holds and turns strong again, then consider following
2) If it can't hold, just look at it as a pullback, don't anticipate a reversal
Current market sentiment
1) The market is indeed recovering, but it feels more like mainstream coins are leading
2) The sentiment is still in the fear zone, indicating that pullbacks can be quick, but sustainability may not be good
3) I won't spread my net on altcoins today, just pick the ones with clear structures
Target observation (today)
A: BTC/ETH (main focus)
B: SOL (high volatility, only trade right side, no bottom fishing)
C: BNB (following, will assess based on 1H structure)
Execution reminders (for myself)
1) A pullback does not equal a reversal
2) No action without confirmation
3) Single trade risk remains the same 0.5%–1%
4) Don't pile on too many positions in the same direction for BTC/ETH/SOL
Just focus on these two switches, don’t look at too much.
Today’s work is about “the segment after confirmation,” not about guessing the lowest or highest points.
This is only a personal pre-market record and does not constitute investment advice.
Many people lose money in trading, not because they misjudge the direction,
but because they mistake 'phenomena' for 'conclusions'.
Here are 10 trading insights that I personally resonate with:
1. Rapid increases and slow decreases are often not a peak; they may indicate strong turnover.
Don't rush to short; first check if the pullback has broken key levels.
2. Rapid declines and weak rebounds mean don't catch the falling knife just yet.
Rebounds that can't rise are mostly not opportunities, but traps.
3. High volume at a peak does not necessarily indicate a top; it's dangerous when volume increases but movement does not.
What you should truly be wary of is when buying pressure disappears after a spike.
4. A single high-volume bottom may not be a true bottom; sustained buying is more credible.
A true bottom isn't signaled by one candlestick; it's gradually confirmed by the market.
5. In the end, trading cryptocurrencies is not about indicators, but about understanding emotions.
Volume is the most direct reflection of market sentiment.
6. A good trader is not someone who takes action every time.
Being able to hold cash means you qualify to wait for big opportunities.
7. Don't fear being wrong; what you should fear is being wrong and still stubbornly holding on.
The most expensive thing in trading is not cutting losses, but obsession.
8. First judge whether today is suitable for trading, then determine whether to go long or short.
When the structure is unclear, the significance of directional judgment is very low.
9. You think you lose because of technique; many times, you actually lose because of distorted actions.
Chasing trades, revenge trades, and adding positions outside of your plan are amplifiers of drawdowns.
10. Masters are not those who see more accurately, but those who recover faster after being wrong.
Surviving in the long run relies not on magical trades, but on consistent risk control.
Trading is not about who dares more,
but about who is more stable.
Survive first, then there will be the next wave.
but because they mistake 'phenomena' for 'conclusions'.
Here are 10 trading insights that I personally resonate with:
1. Rapid increases and slow decreases are often not a peak; they may indicate strong turnover.
Don't rush to short; first check if the pullback has broken key levels.
2. Rapid declines and weak rebounds mean don't catch the falling knife just yet.
Rebounds that can't rise are mostly not opportunities, but traps.
3. High volume at a peak does not necessarily indicate a top; it's dangerous when volume increases but movement does not.
What you should truly be wary of is when buying pressure disappears after a spike.
4. A single high-volume bottom may not be a true bottom; sustained buying is more credible.
A true bottom isn't signaled by one candlestick; it's gradually confirmed by the market.
5. In the end, trading cryptocurrencies is not about indicators, but about understanding emotions.
Volume is the most direct reflection of market sentiment.
6. A good trader is not someone who takes action every time.
Being able to hold cash means you qualify to wait for big opportunities.
7. Don't fear being wrong; what you should fear is being wrong and still stubbornly holding on.
The most expensive thing in trading is not cutting losses, but obsession.
8. First judge whether today is suitable for trading, then determine whether to go long or short.
When the structure is unclear, the significance of directional judgment is very low.
9. You think you lose because of technique; many times, you actually lose because of distorted actions.
Chasing trades, revenge trades, and adding positions outside of your plan are amplifiers of drawdowns.
10. Masters are not those who see more accurately, but those who recover faster after being wrong.
Surviving in the long run relies not on magical trades, but on consistent risk control.
Trading is not about who dares more,
but about who is more stable.
Survive first, then there will be the next wave.
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