In the past few days, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded strongly! $BTC quickly surged from around 63k, returning above 68k (currently about $68,750); $ETH also rose over 10-15%, returning above $2,000 (currently about $2,077); some altcoins have even higher gains (many exceeding 20%+). This wave is a typical oversold rebound + short squeeze market, with the main driving factors as follows:
Repair after extreme panic
In the past few weeks, the Fear and Greed Index has long been in the extreme fear zone of 5-11, with funding rates negative multiple times and excessive concentration of shorts. A positive trigger leads to short covering + a squeeze, today is a classic repair from panic → short-term greed.Trump's State of the Union address comes with a warming of risk appetite(most critical catalyst)
Trump's SOTU speech theme 'America strong, prosperous, and respected,' boasts about economic turning points: inflation down, strong employment, stock market at new highs, and reaffirms a 15% global tariff as the core of protectionism. The market interprets this in advance as a 'strong economic signal,' leading to an overall rebound in risk assets. $BTC, as a high beta asset, follows US stocks upward (with a high correlation). Speculative funds had already positioned before the speech, driving prices up.Technical oversold rebound
$BTC broke below key support and the RSI is extremely low, rebounding from 62k-63k with volume, breaking through 65.5k to trigger bullish signals, already surged above 68k. Hashrate recovery and miners holding back on sales also provide support. $ETH rebounded from around 1,800, returning above 2,000, and is testing the 2,100 level.Marginal improvement in macro liquidity
The probability of the Fed cutting rates in March has increased, the dollar has weakened, which is favorable for risk assets. Signals of regulatory easing (such as banks collaborating with crypto) have also slightly boosted confidence.
In summary: this wave is more about sentiment + technical repair rather than the start of a new bull market.
Still in the 60k-90k oscillation range, with clear resistance above (82k-90k has Gamma pressure).
Macroeconomic uncertainties (tariff escalation, geopolitics, liquidity) remain, making it prone to a high-level pullback.
High-level trapped positions + ETF net outflow pressure are still present, leading to selling after a rise.
Short-term has an inertia upward space (potentially touching 70k-72k), but don’t chase highs, beware of false breakouts followed by pullbacks. A real major reversal requires genuine macro easing + regulatory favorable outcomes.