Bitcoin has dropped by 22.54% since the beginning of this quarter, marking its largest quarterly decline since 2018. With less than 10 days left in the year, it now seems unlikely that the BTC price will reach the bullish price targets that many analysts had anticipated.
Market experts are now reassessing their short-term expectations, detailing how the token could finish the year and what 2026 might hold for this asset.
Key levels to watch
After its ATH in October, Bitcoin faced headwinds in the market. The asset closed the last two months in the red according to Coinglass data.
It fell by 3.69% in October, followed by a more pronounced drop of 17.67% in November. So far this month, Bitcoin is down by 2.31%.
The cryptocurrency struggles to regain a solid position above the $90,000 threshold and is now trading at a price lower than that recorded at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, demand growth is weakening, flows into spot ETFs are slowing, and selling by smart money amplifies bearish risks.
Selling pressure persists in recent sessions, with Bitcoin dropping another 1.8% over the last 24 hours to trade at $87,183.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin remains "stuck in a period of sideways action marked by a narrowing of fluctuations." The complex macroeconomic context prevents it from regaining bullish momentum below $90,000, as liquidity conditions tighten and risk appetite diminishes.
He added that the bulls defended the $85,000 support. Nevertheless, they failed to overcome intense selling pressure around $93,000.
Options market data reflect the confrontation between different market players. Put options are concentrated around $85,000, while call options are between $100,000 and $120,000.
According to Youssef, the upcoming options expiration, new data on the U.S. government shutdown, and the injection of $6.8 billion by the FED could generate short-term volatility. However, the underlying market trend remains uncertain.
"As long as it does not clearly breach the resistance at $93,000 or lose the structural support at $85,000, BTC should remain in a volatile range until the end of the year," he stated.
The leader explains that despite a drop of more than 30% since the October highs, BTC ETF positions in the United States have only decreased by 5%. This suggests that institutional investors are largely maintaining their positions during the current market pullback.
He revealed that most of the selling pressure comes from retail investors, particularly those who are leveraged and short-term. Youssef designates $85,000 as a critical threshold to watch as we approach the end of 2025, as a break below this zone could slide the price down to the $73,000 demand zone.
"A break of support could also prompt institutional investors to make a decision as the price approaches their breakeven price, which is around $80,000. A return above $94,000 is necessary for the market to regain bullish momentum and head towards previous highs," Youssef anticipates.
Meanwhile, Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, observes that the final stretch of the year proves to be one of the most challenging periods for cryptocurrencies in recent years. He cites seasonal weakness, persistently overbought conditions, and a renewed interest from investors in more conservative instruments, particularly U.S. government bonds.
Ehsani adds that market liquidity remains constrained. At the same time, institutional investors increasingly favor a wait-and-see attitude, focusing on capital preservation.
Moreover, Ehsani points out that the current correction highlights the market's fragility and its persistent vulnerability to panic selling. According to him, two logical explanations can be put forward.
Firstly, one or more major market players, such as funds, banks, or even sovereign entities, could position themselves for a significant purchase.
"In this case, the drop in the exchange rate is potentially artificial, and it is likely that the rate will rise again after this temporary pullback."
Otherwise, the market could be saturated. The weakening of the dollar, a consequence of the increasing U.S. public debt, has weighed on demand for cryptocurrencies as risky assets.
"A trend further accentuated by the Federal Reserve's policy. In this scenario, it could take the crypto market over a year to recover," he adds.
The leader also forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a new ATH as early as the first half of 2026 and return to the range of $100,000 to $120,000 by the second quarter.
"A new all-time high in price could occur as early as the first half of 2026, and the price should return to the range of $100,000 to $120,000 in the second quarter. Historically, the early months of the year are not particularly dynamic: traders tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude while markets seek new growth drivers and opportunities," he commented.
The CEO of VALR emphasized that the determining factors for next year will be the degree of institutional adoption, regulatory policies in the United States and globally, as well as, to some extent, the macroeconomic conditions of the largest global economies.
The moral of the story: we need to add life to Bitcoin's years, not years to its life.
