It is not among the altcoins set to make a Christmas rally: XRP is fluctuating at $1.89, with an indicator at its lowest since 2022. And if, in the end, it was this one that boosted the altcoin during the holidays?
XRP is at its lowest
The XRP market is going through a phase of exhaustion marked by one of its lowest risk indices since 2022.
Far from a speculative peak, this period seems more like a phase of market digestion, after several months of liquidation and deleveraging. With reduced volatility and declining volumes, XRP is trading below its moving averages, confirming a climate of waiting rather than euphoria.
This prolonged weakness is not without interest, however. Historically, calm phases preceding XRP rallies have often coincided with undervaluation zones.
Sentiment signals confirm this hypothesis: according to the latest data from Santiment, the number of negative comments on social media has reached rarely observed levels. This widespread pessimism, often interpreted as a contrarian signal, could precede a turnaround, as the majority of sellers seem to have already left the market.
Technically, XRP is consolidating above its recent lows, around $1.90, down 1.5% over 24 hours. The RSI, neutral at 41.30, indicates a market without a clear direction. The price remains below its 50-day moving average ($2.15) and 200-day moving average ($2.54), confirming a corrective trend dominated by multiple resistances.
In this configuration, a rise towards $2.10 or $2.30 is conceivable in the short term if volumes pick up and the overall crypto market supports the movement. Conversely, a break below $1.89 would expose the altcoin to a new test of supports at $1.87 and $1.77.
The hypothesis of a Christmas rally for XRP is therefore conditioned on a psychological change among investors. Fear still dominates, but a simple easing of sales could be enough to trigger a rapid rebound, driven by fragile short positions and now limited supply. The market seems exhausted rather than scared, a distinction often heralding cycle bottoms.
The moral of the story: Christmas without Santa Claus is like XRP without a rally.
