This week, the total crypto market cap fell by $18B, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped 28 points to 32, moving back into “fear.” These are the lowest levels since early 2023. Retail traders are panicking, rotating into stablecoins, and expecting a major crash.
But I don’t believe this marks the start of a true bear market. Here’s why 👇
🔹 Bitcoin & Options Expiry Bitcoin is down around 5% this week, and altcoins are bleeding harder. But the pattern of this dip looks engineered rather than natural. Today alone, $23B worth of BTC and ETH options expire, giving whales every reason to push prices lower and profit from volatility.
🔹 Macro Uncertainty: U.S. Politics & Economy At the same time, political risk is rising. There’s now a 67% chance of a U.S. government shutdown by October 1st, which creates uncertainty across all risk assets. Ironically, crypto has often thrived in political chaos long-term.
On top of that, U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised up to 3.8%, showing the economy is still very strong. That’s bad for rate cuts and good for the dollar. Powell will likely delay easing until Q4, but most analysts still expect two rate cuts before year-end.
🔹 Forced Liquidations, Not Real Selling Heading into this week, the market was heavily overleveraged. Retail traders went long with margin, and as prices dipped, liquidations followed. This wasn’t organic selling—it was forced exits, triggered deliberately by smart money.
🔹 September vs October Pattern History also matters here. September has been Bitcoin’s worst month, with an average –7.5% return over the last decade. But October is usually one of the best-performing months, especially during pre-election years.
We saw the same setup in 2022 and 2023: a big September dip, panic everywhere, then accumulation and a strong reversal. Smart money thrives on this rhythm—and it hasn’t changed.
🔹 So What Now? If you’re buying the dip, do it slowly and in stages. Keep stablecoins ready in case of another flush, and avoid going all-in at once. Remember: whales want fear, confusion, and hesitation. This isn’t about fundamentals—it’s a positioning play.
✅ My view I’m not selling. I still expect bullish momentum in October and November, supported by: ✨Seasonal strength ✨Two potential rate cuts ✨Liquidity rotation
These dips often become the best long-term entries—but only if you survive the volatility. Don’t get shaken out. That’s exactly what the whales want.
👉 Clear takeaway: This is not the end of the bull run. It’s a reset, a trap, and likely an opportunity. Stay calm, scale in, and think long-term. Bonus : $SERAPH is #BinanceAlpha Hidden Gem on Game-Fi sector. Active project and strong community, make this token has their own value and usecase. With their achievement right now, there is possible for #BinanceListing #PCEInflationWatch
If price holds → possible buy zone. If it breaks → let it go, wait cheaper.
Or, if you believe in the project → consider DCA strategy.
Experts, if you also have any thought, you can leave ur comment here💭
✨ Bonus: $SERAPH is a hidden gem—stable and resilient even during dumps, with active development, growing users and revenue, driving real adoption and long-term sustainability.
⚠️ Reminder: Always DYOR. This is not financial advice.