Safe-Haven Rotation: Why Gold & Silver Are Running While Bitcoin Stalls ☄️
Gold and silver have continued to climb over the past three months, while Bitcoin remains range-bound after a major correction. The divergence reflects a classic risk-off rotation: capital is flowing first into traditional safe assets amid geopolitical uncertainty, policy ambiguity, and expectations of lower real rates 🕯
Silver is outperforming alongside gold due to tighter supply and higher sensitivity to speculative flows. Bitcoin, however, is still treated primarily as a high-beta risk asset, not a primary safe haven. In cautious environments, institutions allocate to gold and bonds first, leaving BTC dependent on stronger internal demand to break higher 📊
On-chain data confirms this imbalance. Bitcoin apparent demand has turned negative, and Short-Term Holder SOPR remains below 1, indicating that recent buyers are selling into strength or exiting near breakeven, capping upside on rebounds ➕
Base case: metals stay supported by defensive flows, while Bitcoin consolidates with limited upside.
Shift in outlook: if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR reclaims >1, BTC could rejoin the upside move 💸
