Bitcoin holders' profits plummet to a monthly low: Will the price continue to fall?

In recent sessions, Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility with alternating periods of gains and losses, suggesting the market is still searching for a bottom rather than entering a clear recovery trend. Although BTC has bounced back after sharp declines, the upward momentum remains quite fragile and heavily dependent on the behavior of long-term holders.

On-chain data indicates weakening confidence among long-term (LTH) holders. The amount of Bitcoin held by this group over the past 30 days has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 20 months, reflecting a renewed distribution trend after a prolonged accumulation phase. As unrealized profits shrink, long-term holders tend to prioritize preserving gains, thereby increasing supply pressure on the market.

The LTH NUPL index also fell to its lowest level this month, indicating that profit margins for this group are eroding. Historically, periods of weakness in LTH NUPL are often accompanied by defensive selling. However, as the index moves deeper into low territory, selling pressure usually slows down, allowing prices to stabilize if new demand emerges.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $88,500 and still facing resistance at $89,000. Buying pressure emerged when the price briefly broke below $86,200, indicating continued demand at lower price levels. In a positive scenario, if LTH slows down selling, BTC could surpass $90,300 and head towards $92,900. Conversely, prolonged distribution could cause the price to continue consolidating sideways, awaiting clearer confirmation signals from money flow.

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