2026, the year of all possibilities? Not for Fidelity Investments! Amid record debts, uncertain monetary policy, and tensions on the dollar, the company rather predicts that 2026 could well disrupt all certainties surrounding Bitcoin.
Fidelity predicts a bad year
The tone is set for 2026: according to Jurrien Timmer, director of the Global Macro department at Fidelity Investments, the most famous cryptocurrency is about to go through a complex year.
While Bitcoin is currently hovering around $88,000, Timmer estimates that the peak of $125,000, reached in October 2025, could mark the end of the bullish cycle that began 145 months earlier. The strategist now forecasts a pullback to a support zone between $65,000 and $75,000.
A cautious forecast, especially since the trend contradicts Fidelity's previous scenarios. Gold, deemed a loser, has soared, while Bitcoin is losing steam. For the macro strategist, the BTC price thus enters a prolonged consolidation period before any potential longer-term recoveries.
A vision that contrasts with that of Bitwise, a crypto management company that argues instead for a new all-time high in 2026, driven by the rise of ETFs and growing institutional adoption.
What the company does not see
Should we therefore expect a year without major gains? Not necessarily! Fidelity focuses on the market but the American economic context could shuffle the cards.
After a year 2025 marked by strong macroeconomic volatility, public debt reaches the unprecedented level of 38 trillion dollars, or 124.3% of GDP. This situation weakens the dollar and heightens inflationary tensions. In 2026, Washington will need to refinance nearly 8 trillion dollars of debt incurred during the pandemic. Faced with high interest rates, the cost of this refinancing could become burdensome, prompting the FED to ease its monetary policy, or even inject additional liquidity... and thus drive up crypto.
On the technical side, on-chain signals reinforce the idea of a strained market, but not doomed. The aSOPR ratio, close to 1, suggests typical loss sales of a capitulation phase, while around 7 million of $BTC are now held at a latent loss.
If the BTC price were to slip between 60,000 and 70,000 $, this could actually represent a floor before a new cycle. We would therefore only be in a readjustment phase as has always been the case, without a confirmed bear market.
The moral of the story, he who thought he could take the trend, Fidelity learned it the hard way.
