This wave indeed caught us off guard, and profits have significantly retracted.
But to be clear: this is not a sudden failure of technology, but rather the 'aftereffects' of Japan's interest rate hike beginning to manifest.
This type of market has a very typical characteristic: after creditors take back their money, they start to consider the life and death of risk assets.
1. Why has it suddenly become so awkward?
Japan's interest rate hike itself is not a killer move; the real fatal factor is its destruction of the global arbitrage structure.
The yen, as a financing currency, has started to strengthen, forcing leveraged funds to slow down and reduce positions, putting the market into a transition period of 'de-risking.'
During this phase, the most common trend is: disorderly, repetitive, back and forth, specifically treating those who chase orders and hold large positions.
2. Currently, there are no trend conditions, and it cannot be said to be a reversal.
A more accurate description is: high-level fluctuations + repricing amid a retreat in sentiment.
Short-term funds are reluctant to push up, and medium-term funds are unwilling to engage, so prices can only consume back and forth in a limited space.
3. At this stage, the upper pressure range is locked in at: 2920 – 2940.
The logic of this range is simple: above is the dense cost area of the previous bullish round,
it is also the position where funds are most likely to turn back after retreat.
Therefore, the operational thinking can only be: light positions, testing, and strict stop losses.
Shorting at this position is not about anticipating a big waterfall, but rather about seeking profit from the pullback within the fluctuation range.
4. The truly 'comfortable love fluctuation zone' has not yet fully emerged.
The reason is: macro uncertainty has not been fully digested, the direction of the yen is still affecting risk appetite, and market sentiment lacks a stable anchor point.
But it can be confirmed that: the fluctuation range will not be too large, more like a process of compressed volatility and re-establishing teams.
5. The most important point currently is that this is not a time to compete for direction, but a time to compete for control.
If the position is wrong, even if the direction is right, it is still uncomfortable; if the rhythm is wrong, no matter how much profit there is, it cannot be retained.
In the current market, whoever is anxious will lose; whoever is heavy will retract.
Stabilizing positions and waiting for the structure to provide certainty is the optimal solution for this stage.
