12.18
BTC
Last night, with the opening of the U.S. stock market, BTC was influenced by the U.S. stock market and suddenly surged, but the strong performance of the U.S. stock market began to retract in less than five minutes. In comparison, Bitcoin held up relatively well, declining only after more than half an hour. Currently, the market's focus is still on U.S. monetary policy and Thursday's CPI data, as well as Friday's interest rate hike in Japan. The current market focus is on the short-term confusion due to a lack of liquidity. There are no obvious negative factors in the market itself, but investors are particularly sensitive to any slight movements. On one hand, AI and tech stocks are waving the banners of policy and capital to urge investors to buy; on the other hand, investors are still worried about the Federal Reserve and Trump not having a clear winner, and they are concerned that a recession may still occur. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin did not drop much yesterday, but other altcoins have stepped down a level. Currently, Bitcoin is still within our expected range, and the key focus moving forward is whether the position of 84700 can be broken. If it can break through, it will move around 78500. If there is an opportunity to reach this position, it is a short-term opportunity. Therefore, in summary, even if it moves down in the short term, there are short-term opportunities at this position, with support at 84700-78500 and resistance at 89300-93900.
ETH
Ethereum quickly surged to our resistance level near 3028 yesterday and then quickly retracted. We can see that the market conditions during this period are indeed difficult to trade. At the same time, it has reached around 2820 as we expected. My personal view remains unchanged; after reaching the range of 2800 to 2560, it is still possible to buy at those levels and aim for a short-term rebound. Therefore, in summary, this week, patiently wait for news to materialize and pay attention to the phase bottom or pin bars, with support at 2800-2750-2680 and resistance at 2900-2972.
