Pre-market Analysis (12.18, Thursday)

1. Comprehensive Analysis of the Market Trend: Morning fluctuations, afternoon gradual rise, with structural opportunities.

1. External Influences:

① Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Nasdaq dropping over 400 points, large technology stocks experiencing widespread declines, Tesla and Broadcom down over 4%, Google down over 3%, Meta and Apple down over 1%, Oracle down over 5%, and Nvidia losing over 100 billion yuan in market value! Geopolitical risks have intensified, and oil prices surged.

Energy storage concepts, semiconductors, and computer hardware saw significant declines, with Kanton Technology down over 7%, Supermicro, ASML, AMD, and Arm down over 5%, and KLA down over 4%.

Oil, gas, energy, and precious metals sectors rose, with ConocoPhillips up over 4%, and ExxonMobil and BP up over 2%.

② Japanese central bank policy: Today (December 18-19), it is highly likely to maintain the 0.5% interest rate unchanged, marking the seventh consecutive pause in interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity pressure and providing some support to A-shares.

③ Strong Renminbi: The central parity rate is reported at 7.0759, a new 14-month high, with international capital optimistic about China's economic resilience.

2. Internal Drivers: Dual-driven by technological breakthroughs and cyclical recovery

In the technology manufacturing sector:

CATL announced on December 17 the launch of the world's first intelligent robot power battery production line,"Little Mo" robot has a connection success rate of 99%, tripling daily production capacity, directly benefiting the robotics, AI chip, and industrial automation sectors.

Tesla's Optimus robot is expected to go into mass production by the end of the year, with the humanoid robot market projected to exceed $20 billion by 2025, driving industry chain enthusiasm.

Cyclical sectors:

Coking coal futures rose by 5%, coke by 3.29%, glass by 2.99%, and soda ash by 2.05%, with rising resource prices supporting the valuation recovery of related sectors.

Brokerage Merger: CICC's merger with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities' "three-in-one" plan is set to be implemented, resuming trading tomorrow, which may boost the financial sector.

3. Capital Flow: Northbound funds flowing back, domestic capital positioning for the year-end market

Northbound funds saw a net inflow of 8.2 billion yuan yesterday (the highest in two weeks), with main funds net buying over 11 billion yuan (ending five days of net outflow).

The CSI 300 ETF and other broad-based products received large-scale subscriptions, indicating that funds are positioning ahead of the spring market and expected policy benefits.

Conclusion: Structural opportunities outweigh systematic risks.

Today's market is expected to primarily show fluctuations upward, with technology manufacturing (robots/AI) and cyclical sectors (coal/non-ferrous/building materials) likely to rebound first, and the market's profit-making effect is expected to improve. It is recommended to focus on policy beneficiaries and opportunities for rebounds from oversold conditions, with positions moderately increased to 60-70%.

2. Detailed Analysis of the Sectors Likely to Rebound Today

1. Humanoid Robots/Embodied Intelligence Sector

Core Driver: CATL's "Little Mo" robot launch opens up large-scale applications in the industrial field, coupled with expectations for mass production of Tesla's Optimus, the sector welcomes event-driven catalysts.

Leading Logic:

Technological Breakthrough: Embodied intelligence moves from the laboratory to large-scale production, solving the pain points of flexible manufacturing in industry.

Performance Elasticity: Orders for robot bodies and component suppliers are expected to double, with gross margins improving.

Valuation Recovery: The sector has undergone sufficient adjustment, with PEG generally below 1.5, making it attractive.

2. Lithium Battery Equipment/Intelligent Manufacturing Sector

Core Driver: CATL's production line intelligent upgrade drives demand for complete line equipment, with the battery industry accelerating expansion.

Leading Logic:

Order Implementation: Leading equipment manufacturers have received large orders from CATL, enhancing performance certainty.

Technological Iteration: The integration of AI and manufacturing accelerates, increasing value in visual inspection, precision assembly, and other areas.

Valuation Advantage: The sector's PE is at a near three-year low, with some leaders' PE dropping below 15 times by 2026.

3. Coal/Coke Sector

Core Driver: Coking coal futures surged by 5%, with spot prices rising in tandem, releasing winter storage replenishment demand.

Leading Logic:

Supply and Demand Improvement: Stringent safety regulations in major production areas lead to supply contraction; downstream steel mills' operating rates are recovering, and demand is warming.

Performance Elasticity: For every 10% increase in coal prices, leading companies' net profits are expected to rise by about 15-20%.

Undervalued: The sector's average PE is only 8-10 times, with dividend rates generally exceeding 6%, highlighting its investment value.

4. Non-ferrous Metals (Tin/Silver) Sector

Core Driver: Shanghai tin futures rose by 3.66%, and silver rose by 3.43%, with global supply shortages resonating with industrial demand recovery.

Leading Logic:

Tin: Limited supply from Myanmar + increased demand for photovoltaic solder strips, widening the supply-demand gap.

Silver: New energy + photovoltaics + 5G drive industrial demand, coupled with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle benefiting precious metals.

Capital Preference: Under inflation expectations, the non-ferrous sector becomes a dual choice for capital as a safe haven and value enhancement.

5. Brokerage Sector

Core Driver: CICC's merger with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities' "three-in-one" merger plan is implemented, creating a trillion-level mega-broker.

Leading Logic:

Industry Consolidation: Leading brokerages enhance market share through mergers and acquisitions, boosting profitability.

Policy Expectations: Deepening capital market reforms, expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange, T+0 pilot policies, and other favorable policies.

Valuation Recovery: The sector's PB is at historical lows, and post-merger leading valuations are expected to improve.

Risk Warning

1. If the external stock market falls sharply, it may trigger short-term fluctuations in A-shares.

2. If trading volume cannot be sustained, the market may revert to a fluctuating consolidation pattern.

3. Accelerated sector rotation increases the risk of chasing highs; it is recommended to focus on opportunities for rebounds from low positions.