Bitcoin is in a very sensitive moment of the cycle, and according to Crypto Stasiak, the market is ignoring serious macroeconomic risks. The analyst points out a specific factor that could trigger sharp declines and is preparing to buy much lower. At the same time, he emphasizes that as long as key supports hold, the bullish trend formally continues.
The situation in the cryptocurrency market today requires a cool head, patience, and a good action plan.
The Bank of Japan as a risk trigger for Bitcoin
Crypto Stasiak begins the analysis with a factor that he believes is completely underestimated by the market. It concerns a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the meeting on December 18–19, 2025. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a move to 0.5% or higher in 80% of cases. This would symbolize, but very significantly, the end of the era of negative rates in Japan.
The analyst explains that Japan has been the foundation of the global carry trade for decades. An investor borrowed cheaply in yen and invested in risky assets, including Bitcoin. A strengthening yen forces the repayment of these loans through asset sales. Historically, this has led to sharp declines and flash crashes.
Stasiak explains that a similar mechanism worked in August 2024. At that time, Bitcoin dropped by about 20% in just a week. Now the scale of risk may be even greater, as global liquidity is low. This is a classic risk-off scenario that the market often notices too late.
On-chain shows key levels for Bitcoin
In the next part, Crypto Stasiak moves on to on-chain data that help understand the current market structure. Bitcoin remains above the Active Realized Price around 88,000 USD. An even more important level is the True Market Mean, which is around 81,300 USD. As long as the price remains above this line, the uptrend is formally ongoing.
At the same time, volumes in the futures market remain high despite price consolidation. This often heralds a strong, impulsive movement, although its direction remains uncertain. Supply distribution shows a solid demand wall at 84,000 USD. Below this level, liquidity dramatically drops, especially around 75,000 USD.
The analyst points out the behavior of long-term holders. More and more long-term holders are liquidating their positions, just like at the beginning of 2024. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin in loss is the highest since 2023. In conditions of low liquidity, such panic can accelerate deep declines.
Strategy, zones, and action plan according to Bitcoin
From a chart perspective, Crypto Stasiak indicates very specific decision zones. The most important demand area is around 81,000 USD. That is where he plans to gradually build positions using the DCA method up to 73,000 USD. Above 92,300 USD, the market still encounters a strong supply zone.
The analyst clearly states that the market is today extremely thin in terms of liquidity. A small capital can trigger a very dynamic movement in either direction. Therefore, he recommends mandatory use of stop-losses, even in the spot market. A flash crash does not allow time for manual response.
“Personally, I already have orders set around 72,500-73,000 USD, which are just sitting there, waiting for a major swing high, meaning the main high, the main demand zone from the last impulse, one could even say from the last bull market in 2021.”
In the news section, Stasiak also refers to Fed policy and data from the USA. The Fed cut rates for the third time by 25 bps but signals a pause and caution. Labor market data is mixed, which does not favor a clear risk-on. Bitcoin ETFs have remained almost without flows for the third week.
For the sake of order, the analyst summarizes the key conclusions simply:
The Bank of Japan may trigger a global risk-off
Bitcoin is close to critical supports
Liquidity remains very low
The best opportunities arise in panic
Does this mean the beginning of a bear market? No, as long as 81,300 USD remains intact. Is the market safe? Also no, because one macro event can change everything in a few hours.
Crypto Stasiak recommends maximum caution, patience, and a prepared plan. In his opinion, the biggest opportunities arise when most are afraid to act. Therefore, he observes the market calmly and waits for his levels. It is in such moments that the best investment decisions are born.
To read the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
