Who would have thought? The longest shutdown in U.S. history is coming to an end, and not only did the U.S. stock market not rise, but the cryptocurrency market also gave all investors a lesson in "anti-human nature," with leading coins plummeting over 4% in a single day, and the second-ranked coin directly breaking key support levels. The saying that "bad news is good news after it has been fully absorbed" has completely failed! As an analyst who has been watching the crypto market for 8 years and has experienced three cycles of bull and bear markets, I must today dissect the underlying logic of this wave of market changes, which is all practical insights that will help newcomers avoid fatal pitfalls!
First, let new fans quickly understand the background: the recent U.S. government shutdown lasted a full 43 days, setting a historical record! The core conflict is that the two parties are at an impasse over border funding and related benefits, with one side wanting to push a large welfare plan that the other side directly vetoed (after all, this would add hundreds of billions to an already tight budget). Ultimately, the temporary funding bill signed by Trump is, to put it simply, a "stopgap measure" that lasts only until mid-March, essentially planting an invisible bomb in the market that says, "There may be another wave of turbulence in two months," without actually resolving the core conflict!
Pay attention! This wave of 'shutdown ending and subsequent crash' is essentially due to three key signals at play. Understanding these is the first step:
First, the aftereffects of the shutdown far exceed market expectations! In 43 days, nearly 800,000 federal employees either stopped working or worked without pay. JPMorgan has estimated that this directly reduced U.S. GDP growth by $11 billion, pulling the quarterly growth rate down by 0.2 percentage points! The rhythm of economic recovery has been disrupted, and market funds will naturally flee from high-volatility assets. As a 'barometer' of risk appetite, crypto assets are the first to be sold off, which is completely normal.
Secondly, policy uncertainty has instead escalated! The temporary bill is not a 'psychological comfort,' but a 'delaying tactic'—the two parties are only temporarily at peace, without truly reaching a consensus. What the market fears most now is 'repeating the same mistakes in two months'; no one wants to invest money into a market that could change at any moment, so everyone is flocking to safe-haven assets. The short-term pressure on the crypto market is entirely within expectations.
Thirdly, the global economy's 'weak recovery' is holding us back! It's not just the U.S. that is restless; the data from major economies in Europe and Asia is also not impressive. Additionally, as global trade negotiations enter a critical phase, under multiple pressures, U.S. stocks and the crypto market simply cannot stand out. It's like the entire industry is 'slowing down,' making it too difficult for a single market to rise against the trend!
But long-time followers know that I have always emphasized that 'bull markets are born out of panic'! This wave of decline is not a risk at all, but an opportunity presented to true value investors:
First, short-term panic selling has brought many quality assets back to the 'value pit.' For those who didn't get on board during the previous highs, now is just the right window for gradual layout; second, from a long-term perspective, the major trend of global liquidity easing has not changed, and the scarcity of quality crypto assets will only become more pronounced. The current correction is merely a 'small interlude' on the way up.
To be honest, I have already been gradually laying out my positions during this wave of retracement, focusing on underlying public chains and ecological leaders. After all, the long-term logic of these assets has not been destroyed, and the short-term decline is merely driven by emotion. Experienced players understand that 'when others panic, I am greedy' is never just a slogan; it is a concrete money-making logic!
Want to know which specific assets I've laid out? At what points should I enter and set stop-losses? Like and follow for more! In the next article, I'll directly share my holding logic and operational points, along with a list of 3 high-quality assets that can weather bull and bear markets. If you miss this opportunity, it might be another six months before you get a chance!
