Just earned 2 points and ran, only to see the target double! Chasing this track and then that one, enough fees to treat friends to milk tea! Empty positions make me anxious, full positions are scary, should I really enter the market? Recently, I've been getting a lot of these questions in the background, and I completely understand this kind of anxiety!
But I must shatter a truth: it's not that you're unlucky, it's the most exhausting 'rhythm trap' of a bull market! As someone who's been through the crypto market for 8 years, from losing all my capital to steady profits, and experiencing 3 rounds of bull and bear markets, I've fallen into more pits than you've seen K lines. Today, I'll break down my hard-earned practical logic and teach you how to precisely grasp the 3 phases of a bull market, avoiding 90% of retail investors' fatal moves!
One, early stage (current phase): screening period, only those who can endure are qualified to eat meat.
Many people have a fatal misunderstanding of the bull market: thinking that entering the market means easy profits. But the nature of the crypto market is that the early stage of the bull market is not a 'money-picking scenario', but rather a 'elimination round' for the main force to filter out retail investors—like sifting sand, first eliminating the impatient and the restless, leaving only those who can enjoy the real gains.
I have seen too many people perish in the early stage:
'Diligent chives': Changing 5 sectors in a week, chasing DeFi concepts in the morning, switching to NFT sectors in the afternoon, rushing to AI narratives in the evening, operating over 10 times in a day, fees are higher than earnings, and ultimately his account keeps shrinking.
'Cowardly-style profit-taking': Panicking and leaving the market after making a 3% gain, only to see the asset continue to rise and then buy it back at a high position, perfectly illustrating 'selling low and buying high', turning the bull market into a losing situation.
'Onlooker non-participant': Watching the index rise and fearing being trapped, always waiting for a 'buying opportunity', and when a real pullback comes, thinking 'it will drop further', ultimately watching the market take off, and slapping his thigh is useless.
My exclusive strategy (proven effective in 3 rounds of bull markets):
Selecting assets: Abandon the trend-chasing concept, prioritize mainstream leading tracks with 'practical implementation scenarios + reasonable valuations', and stay away from concept assets without white papers or applications.
Position: Light positions for trial and error (20%-30% position), neither fully invested nor completely liquidated—this avoids missing trends while controlling pullback risks.
Mindset: Control the frequency of watching the market, no more than once a day! In the early stage of a bull market, patience is tested. The more anxious you are, the easier it is for the main force to harvest you. If you endure, spring will come.
Two, mid stage: meat-eating phase, daring to increase positions is the key to making big money.
When the market shifts from 'sector rotation chaos' to 'mainstream tracks moving up together', congratulations, the mid-bull market has arrived! This is the real profit window; many people transition from 'small gains' to 'big gains', but many others miss the opportunity at this stage.
I have seen the most regrettable 3 types of people:
'Hesitant non-participant': Not entering the market at the beginning, feeling envious and scared watching others make money, and when finally determined to enter, just coincides with a short-term pullback, directly scared away.
'Pacing runner': Only daring to take a 5% position to test the waters, while others make 100%, he only makes 5%, and in the end, he can only watch others double their profits while he can only slap his thigh in frustration.
'Fee contributor': Treating the bull market as a short-term casino, chasing after rises and cutting losses on dips, ultimately giving all profits to transaction fees, it’s better to hold firmly.
My doubling practical strategy:
Signal to increase positions (only act when all 3 signals are met): ① Mainstream tracks continuously rise with increased volume for 3 days; ② Pullback does not break the 10-day moving average; ③ Core assets move up together (not isolated market behavior of a single asset), at this point, you can increase positions to 50%-70%, but absolutely stay away from high-risk leverage tools—crypto markets rise quickly and drop even faster; leverage is the tombstone of retail investors.
Core logic: 'Holding' is more important than 'acting'! Select 1-2 mainstream tracks to hold firmly, don’t think 'I can make money from every sector', greed will only lead to empty efforts.
Profit-taking techniques: Set a phased profit-taking line of 30%-50%, but don’t sell everything at the target! Take profits in batches (for example, sell 20% of the position after gaining 30%, then 30% after gaining 50%), keeping some positions to earn from the trend— the trend in the mid-bull market is fiercer than you think.
Three, late stage: escape period, greed is the tombstone of retail investors.
When the whole network is shouting 'the bull market doesn’t say it’s at the top', your colleagues, relatives, and even your square dance teammates come to ask 'what to buy to double', and those who usually say 'crypto assets are gambling' start to invest heavily or even use leverage—congratulations, the late stage of the bull market has arrived! This is not an opportunity to make money, but the most dangerous 'harvesting period'!
I have seen too many tragedies in the late stage of the 2021 bull market:
'Blind buyer': Believing 'this time is different', heavily investing in concept assets without practical implementation based on what influencers say, ignoring valuations, and ultimately getting stuck at high positions.
'Greedy person': Thinking 'I will sell after it rises another 10%', only to fall back from a 50% profit to breakeven or even a loss, and then leaving the market cursing.
'Mid-hill bottom buyer': Feeling that 'the opportunity has come' after a slight pullback, buying more as it falls, ultimately getting stuck at high positions and watching his account shrink with tears of regret.
My escape strategy (helped me avoid two crashes):
Gradually reducing positions for safety: In the late stage of the bull market, reduce positions in 3 phases: the first reduction of 30% after the overall transaction volume reaches a new high, the second reduction of 30% when the mainstream assets' valuations exceed twice the historical average, and the third reduction of 20% when regulatory signals appear, leaving 20% of the position protected by profit-taking lines—remember, in the crypto market, 'taking profits is always better than 'being greedy for the last coin'.
Stay away from high-risk assets: Abandon high-risk leverage tools and concept assets without practical implementation, as the pullback in the late stage of the bull market is both fast and severe, these assets may directly halve.
Stay clear-headed: Remember this saying 'bull markets drop harder than bear markets', when the market is crazy, the calmer you are, the safer you will be; don’t let emotions cloud your judgment.
Conclusion: Follow the rhythm; the bull market is your cash machine.
The bull market in the crypto market has never been a feast where 'everyone makes money', but rather a game where 'a few make money for many'. Enduring in the early stage, daring to increase positions in the mid-stage, and being able to take profits in the later stage; if you get these three rhythms right, you can stand out from 90% of retail investors.
Back in my day, I didn't understand the rhythm, missing out in the 2017 bull market and almost standing by in 2021. Later, I achieved stable profits using this strategy. The market doesn’t wait for anyone; one misstep in rhythm leads to total loss!
