Tonight at 3 AM, the entire market's attention will be focused on Powell.

The core of this meeting is not about 'whether to cut interest rates', but rather the combination of 'rate cut + speech tone'.

A 25bp cut is basically a done deal, but the key point is: the Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 'hawkish rate cut'.

—— The action is easing, but the tone is somewhat tough.

On the surface, there's goodwill, but the speech may throw some cold water on the market, a typical 'not letting you get too excited'.

The internal attitudes are also not unified:

On one hand, there are concerns about a slowdown in employment, hoping to continue cutting rates to support the economy;

On the other hand, there is fear of inflation coming back, hoping to remain cautious.

This divergence is likely to be reflected in the dot plot: whether to continue cutting rates later this year is uncertain, and there may be quite a few dissenting votes.

Cryptocurrency market response logic

① Short term: Tonight to tomorrow morning is a high-risk zone

A rate cut does not equal a direct benefit.

If Powell's speech leans hawkish and suggests slowing the rate cut pace, market sentiment may flip instantly, leading to increased short-term volatility.

High-leverage players must prioritize risk control.

② Medium term: Keep a close eye on the balance sheet

If the Federal Reserve signals 'slowing the taper' or even 're-expanding the balance sheet', that would be the switch for liquidity.

Once liquidity eases, it is a real positive for risk assets.

③ Big picture: Fluctuation is a process, the trend still looks bullish

Tonight may see a wave of intense liquidation, but as long as liquidity expectations gradually improve, bottom support will strengthen.

Structural market trends will not be interrupted by one meeting.

So you need to think clearly:

Will you choose to take profits early tonight?

Or wait for market sentiment to panic, and then look for buying opportunities?

This is a timing issue, as well as an execution issue.

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