The US stock market rebounded and stabilized last week after experiencing its largest pullback since April, and this week will open the final chapter of this year. The sentiment in the crypto market has slightly improved from the previous extreme panic, and a cautiously optimistic mood is beginning to take shape. Before the deadline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains above 90,000; although it has rebounded significantly from the low of 80,600 in November, the cumulative decline over the month is still as high as 17%. On average, both the US stock market and Bitcoin have good Christmas performances in December. According to statistics, Bitcoin's average increase in the fourth quarter is 77%, but this year Bitcoin has shown declines in October and November. Is there an opportunity for a catch-up rally?
Key data continues to be released, influencing the direction of December's interest rate decisions.
This week, several important data points will be released, including the ISM Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the ADP Employment Report, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.
Inflation and consumer demand data are under close scrutiny, as these figures may significantly influence market expectations regarding whether the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle. Additionally, the market is closely watching potential changes in central bank leadership, with the market prepared for the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, with the highest likelihood currently attributed to White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett.
The Federal Reserve has entered a pre-meeting silent period, but Chair Powell and Governor Michelle Bowman will still give speeches. However, they are prohibited from commenting on the economic outlook or policy. The Federal Reserve will hold a two-day meeting on 12/9, with discussions expected to focus on the labor market conditions and whether a third consecutive rate cut is necessary. According to the CME FedWatch Index, currently, 87% of traders believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the benchmark interest rate to 3.5~3.75%.
Crypto sentiment has slightly improved. Is there a chance for Bitcoin to welcome the Christmas trend?
The sentiment in the crypto market has slightly improved, shifting from extreme panic to panic, with cautious optimism beginning to emerge.
However, Bitcoin's relative weakness compared to tech stocks and the criticism faced by Tether regarding its reserves backed by Bitcoin still exert pressure. Bitcoin's dominance remains at 58.7%, failing to lead the overall market cap of cryptocurrencies higher.
(Tether bets on Bitcoin and gold in preparation for interest rate cuts, Arthur Hayes: a 30% drop in shareholder equity will lead to zero)
As of the deadline, Bitcoin remains above ninety thousand. Although it has rebounded significantly from the low point of 80,600 in November, the cumulative decline over the month still reaches 17%. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to hover around the three thousand mark, with a monthly decline of 21%.
On average, the US stock market and Bitcoin have good Christmas trends in December. According to Coinglass statistics, Bitcoin's performance in the fourth quarter is the most impressive, with an average increase of 77%. However, this year Bitcoin has shown a decline in both October and November. Is there a chance for a rebound?
This article discusses the easing of panic sentiment, with Bitcoin holding steady above ninety thousand. Will the Christmas trend see a rebound? Originally published in Chain News ABMedia.
