At 21:30 Beijing time, the retail sales month-on-month for the U.S. in September will be unveiled — this indicator, known as the "terrifying data", recorded a growth of 0.60% last time, and the market expects a slowdown to 0.4% this month. After government shutdowns delayed data by more than a month, the quality of this report will directly impact expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and global market sentiment.

1. Is the signal of consumer "cooling" already apparent?

From a market perspective, the expected slowdown in September retail sales is not accidental:

- Low-income groups under pressure: Prices of essentials such as food and rent remain high, the growth rate of after-tax wages for low-income families has reached the lowest level since 2016, and retailers like Walmart have observed an increase in "discount-sensitive affluent customers", reflecting a contraction in consumption among the middle and low-income groups;

- Labor market drag: September U.S. hiring activity slowed, with unemployment rate showing upward pressure; the University of Michigan survey indicates consumer pessimism about financial prospects has reached a new high since 2009. 'Tighten belts' may become the norm.

However, the 0.6% growth in August retail sales exceeding expectations (actual consumption momentum may only be 0.3%) was also interpreted by the market as 'tariffs pushing up prices rather than real demand.' If tonight's data is below expectations, it may further solidify the judgment of 'consumption peaking.'

II. How will the data stir the market?

If September retail sales meet or are below expectations (≤0.4%):

- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December will further increase, the U.S. dollar index may temporarily pull back, and gold and U.S. growth stocks are expected to receive support;

- U.S. Treasury yields may continue to decline, reflecting the trading logic of 'economic slowdown → increased easing.'

If exceeding expectations (>0.4%):

- Market confidence in a 'soft landing' will rebound, expectations for interest rate cuts converge, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may rise in tandem, while gold could face pressure testing short-term support;

- U.S. stock cyclical stocks (such as retail and consumer sectors) may be boosted, but beware of the long-term suppression of 'strong data → tight policy.'

III. Tonight there is also PPI 'twin data'

Alongside retail sales, the U.S. September PPI data will also be released:

- Year-on-year expectation 2.7% (previous value 2.6%), month-on-month expectation 0.3% (previous value -0.10%);

- If PPI exceeds expectations and rebounds, it may exacerbate the market's concerns about 'inflation stickiness,' creating a combination of 'economic resilience + recurring inflation' that limits the Federal Reserve's easing space.

Tonight at 21:30, two pieces of data will jointly outline the 'true temperature' of the U.S. economy—will consumer resilience continue, or will the cooling signal be confirmed? The answer is about to be revealed.$BTC $币安人生 $ETH #ETH巨鲸增持 #巨鲸动向