We analyze the LDO (Lido DAO) token from multiple aspects: fundamentals, technologies, risks, and potential forecasts. (Note: This is an informational analysis, not investment advice.)
---
1. The Basics – What is LDO and Why is it Important
What is Lido DAO?
Lido is a liquid staking protocol for Ethereum, allowing you to stake ETH and receive stETH, which represents the staked ETH plus rewards, while still being able to use it in DeFi instead of being locked.
Function of LDO:
The governance token in Lido DAO: LDO holders can vote on decisions such as protocol upgrades, choosing validators, using the treasury …
Since 2025, there is a 'Dual Governance' system: holders of stETH have the authority to object to or delay certain proposals if a specific piece of stETH rejects them.
There is also a proposal for a buyback mechanism for LDO using protocol revenues when certain conditions are met (such as rising ETH and sufficient profitability) to reduce supply.
Profitability and Operation:
According to reports, Lido has started to make profits in some periods, which is positive as it reduces pressure from the treasury and the protocol.
Deposit activity (staked ETH) is also strong, indicating good reliance on the protocol.
---
2. Positive Driving Forces (Bullish Factors)
Dual Governance:
This update enhances security and protection for participants holding stETH, as it gives them the ability to counter certain decisions that may be against their interests.
Potential Buyback Mechanism:
If the buyback mechanism is activated, it could reduce the supply of LDO and create upward pressure on the price in the long term.
Institutional Adoption:
There is increasing institutional interest, such as the introduction of an ETF linked to stETH by VanEck, which gives more confidence to the protocol and increases the chances of demand growth.
Future Technical Upgrade:
Lido has announced the SRv3 upgrade for validators, making staking management more efficient.
---
3. Risks and Challenges
Concentration of holdings (‘whale risk’):
A large percentage of LDO is owned by major holders, which could create significant volatility if they decide to sell.
Dependence on ETH:
The performance of LDO is closely related to the price of Ethereum because it depends on stETH and its associated liquidity. If ETH declines or faces issues, demand for Lido may be significantly affected.
Buyback mechanism conditions:
The proposed buyback mechanism is not guaranteed, but is linked to achieving certain income for the protocol and a specific ETH price. If these conditions are not met, the mechanism may not work.
Competition from other staking protocols:
There are competitors like EigenLayer, who may attract part of the demand for liquid staking.
Governance and Implementation Liquidity:
The dual governance system is complex, and it may slow down some decisions or create conflict between LDO and stETH holders.
---
4. Technical Analysis and Price (so far)
According to recent analyses, there is some bullish momentum driven by governance and positive expectations, but there are also significant technical resistances that need to be broken.
Some analysts set future targets (if resistances are broken) reaching up to $2.55 in a very strong scenario, but this is not guaranteed and depends on plan execution and market conditions improvement.
There is significant support at certain lower levels (according to technical analysis) that may provide a base for a bullish rebound if maintained.
---
5. Potential Forecasts (Scenarios)
Here are some future scenarios for LDO based on various factors:
Bullish Scenario (Optimistic):
Successful implementation of dual governance + activation of buyback mechanism → downward pressure on supply → LDO price increase.
Increased institutional adoption (like the stETH ETF) → more demand.
Technical upgrade (like SRv3) facilitates expansion → enhancing Lido's position as a leading protocol in liquid staking.
Neutral/Equilibrium Scenario:
Some updates are implemented, but buyback conditions are often not met → limited impact.
ETH price fluctuations positively or negatively affect LDO → price movement is volatile.
Competition from staking protocols prevents strong dominance → moderate growth.
Bearish Scenario (Pessimistic):
Selling by large holders (whales) leads to significant selling pressure.
Failure to activate the buyback mechanism if profit conditions or ETH price are not met.
Regulatory or technical issues → Erosion of trust among LDO holders.
Decrease in demand if staking roots decline or if the use of stETH in DeFi decreases.
---
6. Summary and Analytical Recommendation
Strengths: Lido is a strong protocol and is among the most important liquid staking protocols, and LDO has an important governance role. Recent updates (dual governance, buyback proposals) strengthen the fundamentals.
Risks are present: high concentration on major holders, dependency on ETH, and governance complexity are all aspects to be closely monitored.
Potential Strategy:
For those with a long-term view: LDO can be considered a potential investment if you believe in the future of liquid staking on Ethereum.
For those looking to trade short to medium term: opportunities for rebounds can be exploited, especially if updates are announced or a buyback mechanism is implemented.
Risk management should always be practiced (investment size, entry and exit points) due to LDO's volatility.
