11.21 BTC dropped sharply, the core reason is the panic triggered by MSTR being removed from the MSCI index, but "MSTR exiting = BTC crash" is a typical misjudgment, the key logic needs to be clarified:

​

First, selling MSTR stock ≠ selling BTC.

If an ETF faces large redemptions, it must sell coins on-chain according to rules for cashing out; but MSTR is a physical company, the index fund is selling its stocks, essentially it is "shareholder replacement" — new and old shareholders trading stocks, which will not affect the BTC held by Saylor.

As of now, there is no sign of MSTR selling pressure on the BTC chain, direct selling pressure is 0, and the short-term decline is purely emotion-driven. ​

Second, the real impact is the stop of the "coin hoarding flywheel".

In a bull market, MSTR can become the "coin hoarding king" of BTC, relying on the "premium flywheel": the market is optimistic about its BTC holdings, the stock price is higher than net assets (i.e. premium), using this to issue bonds and place shares to raise funds at low cost, then buying BTC entirely, which in turn pushes up the stock price and premium, forming a cycle.

Now being kicked out of the index, the recognition of traditional funds has plummeted, stock prices fall, premiums disappear, the "financing to buy coins" strategy has come to a halt, BTC has lost its most persistent "continuous buyer", which is "the rise momentum has stalled", not "the prelude to a crash". ​

Third, the fundamentals of BTC have not collapsed.

Saylor has not sold a single BTC for four years, based on current holding costs and company structure, only in the extreme case of BTC dropping to 15000u could selling coins be possible; the current decline in BTC is due to MSTR being long-term "bound to rise and fall" with BTC — MSTR's stock price fluctuates faster and more violently (like a "magnifying glass" for BTC's "rise and fall"), its decline triggers market panic, thus dragging down BTC, but it is unrelated to the fundamentals of BTC itself.

In the short term, with MSTR missing as a large buyer, it is difficult to see the previous sharp rise, but it is by no means a "death spiral", and there is no need for excessive panic. #美国加征关税 #加密市场观察 #鲍威尔发言