This thing is jumping around like a headless fly near 3200, pretending to rush to 3300 one moment and then sweating cold at 3150 the next. I don’t know how many old friends in front of the screen are accelerating their heartbeats. As an old hand who has been watching the crypto market for five years, I must share my heartfelt thoughts with everyone today: the current ETH on the surface is a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, but in reality, it’s the fundamentals and short-term emotions wrestling. If you understand these two points, you can avoid pitfalls in the afternoon operations!
Let’s first talk about the fundamentals that everyone cares about the most — don’t just look at the price and panic blindly. The 'backing' behind ETH has actually been getting stronger. Recently, the entire ecosystem seems to have been injected with enthusiasm, with Layer 2 solutions being better than ever, transfers are fast and cheap, isn’t this what users want the most? What’s more crucial is that the amount of staked ETH has surpassed 38 million! Folks, this is not a small number, which indicates that more and more people are optimistic about the long-term value of ETH and are willing to lock up their coins to support the ecosystem. This kind of solid confidence is more effective than any slogan.
But we also can't be blindly optimistic; we must see the short-term 'pits' clearly. Open the 15-minute candlestick chart, and anyone with a discerning eye can see the problem — previously stabilizing the rebound at the 3000 mark, the momentum was good, but it got stuck around 3265, forming a 'double top' structure. Those who understand technical analysis know that this pattern is similar to 'two caps on the head,' often signaling a pullback. Looking at the moving averages, the current price is fluctuating between MA (7) and MA (30), like walking on a tightrope, very unstable. What's more concerning is the MACD; the upward momentum from the previous golden cross just faded, and now there's a bearish cross at a high position, with the green energy bars slowly lengthening, like stepping on the brakes while driving, increasing the pressure to move down in the short term. The most critical factor is the trading volume; during the recent drop, the volume noticeably increased, indicating that some funds are starting to panic and quietly offloading. At this time, we must remain steady and not follow along with reckless operations.
Next is everyone's most concerned operational advice. As usual, let's talk about short-term and medium-long-term separately so we can get what we need. Short-term players pay attention; the most critical support level right now is 3140. If this level cannot hold and breaks down with increased volume, it is highly likely to retrace to the 3000 round number, so don’t hold on stubbornly. If there’s a rebound to around 3220 in the afternoon, those with light positions can consider taking a small short position, but the stop-loss must be set above 3265. After all, the market decides; we need to leave ourselves a way out.
Medium-long-term traders don't need to get too tangled up in short-term fluctuations. After all, the ecosystem of ETH is established, with Layer2 and staking being real positives, and the long-term value is still there. If you already have coins, focus on the defense situation at the 3000 mark; as long as it doesn’t break the key support, there’s no need to panic. If you want to increase your position, don’t go all in at once; gradually build your position when prices are low is safer, especially avoid high leverage, as this is like 'a knife in a gambler's hand'; if you win, great, but if you lose, you might lose even your principal. We play crypto to make money, not for the adrenaline rush.
Finally, I must emphasize the risk to everyone. This market is like a 'mischievous child'; it can change its face at any moment. Who knows if the Federal Reserve will suddenly release some news in the afternoon, or if there will be large transfers on-chain, causing the price to fluctuate like a roller coaster. Therefore, whether for short or long-term trades, stop-losses must be set well, and positions must be controlled; don't throw all your money in at once. Leaving yourself a way out is the way to go.
After reading this analysis, do you have a sense of the ETH market for the afternoon? In fact, no matter how complicated the market is, as long as we grasp the core of the fundamentals and technicals and manage risk well, we need not fear stepping into pits. If you find that the analysis from the old pro is practical and helpful to you, don't forget to follow; I'll be breaking down the latest market trends every day and sharing exclusive trading tips. If you have any questions, don't hold back; feel free to ask in the comments, and the old pro will reply to everyone. Let's steadily make money in the crypto market together, and don't miss out!
