Bitcoin Slides as Liquidity Thins and Leverage Amplifies Downside Pressure
Bitcoin’s sudden multi-thousand-dollar drop highlights just how fragile current market conditions have become. Thin weekend liquidity, record-high leverage, and weakening daily technical momentum combined to trigger a rapid decline that unfolded within minutes and without any fundamental catalyst. Analysts note that these moves are increasingly structural rather than reflective of underlying fundamentals.
The daily chart shows Bitcoin continuing to slip beneath key short-term trend levels, with falling EMAs signaling deteriorating momentum and an RSI drifting toward oversold territory. Bid-side liquidity walls remain in place but are vulnerable, while ask walls overhead continue to cap recovery attempts. With support sitting between the mid-$84K and low-$82K regions and resistance near $87K and above, traders are watching closely to see whether BTC stabilizes or extends its decline.
Market structure remains the dominant theme: thin liquidity plus elevated leverage has created an environment where small selling triggers can cascade into larger moves. Until either liquidity deepens or leverage resets, Bitcoin may continue to experience sharp swings during low-volume hours.
Yearn Finance Hit by Multi-Million Dollar Exploit as yETH Pool Drained
Yearn Finance is investigating a major security breach after its yETH liquid staking token product was drained through an advanced exploit that allowed an attacker to mint a near-infinite number of yETH tokens. The vulnerability enabled the draining of millions of dollars’ worth of LSTs in a single transaction, with at least 1,000 ETH — roughly $3 million — quickly funneled into Tornado Cash.
Blockchain data shows the attack involved a set of freshly deployed smart contracts engineered specifically for the exploit, some of which self-destructed immediately after execution to obscure the trail. Analysts say the precision of the attack suggests deep familiarity with Yearn’s mechanics rather than a generic DeFi vulnerability.
Yearn confirmed the incident on X, stressing that its larger V2 and V3 vaults remain unaffected. However, the event has revived broader concerns about the risks tied to complex yield-aggregation products and the growing sophistication of attackers targeting liquid staking infrastructure. With the full extent of the loss still being evaluated, users and researchers are awaiting a detailed post-mortem to understand how the breach occurred — and what it means for DeFi security going forward.
Trump Nears Fed Decision as Hassett Rises to the Front
President Donald Trump has confirmed that he has chosen the next Federal Reserve chair, signaling a major shift at the central bank as he pushes for more aggressive interest-rate cuts. While he declined to reveal the nominee, market watchers increasingly expect National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to be the frontrunner.
Hassett’s alignment with Trump on the need for lower borrowing costs — and the market’s immediate dip in Treasury yields following speculation about his potential nomination — has fueled expectations that he may take the helm. Despite dismissing the reports as “rumors,” Hassett pointed to positive market reaction as a sign that investors welcome a more dovish Fed.
Other contenders remain in the mix, including Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the official announcement could come before Christmas, setting the stage for one of the most consequential monetary policy decisions of Trump’s term.
Saylor’s “Green Dots” Tease Sparks New Questions for Strategy’s Bitcoin Playbook
Michael Saylor surprised the bitcoin community this week by breaking his year-long pattern of Sunday orange-dot posts that typically hint at new BTC purchases. This time, he posted the same chart—but with a twist—asking, “what if we start adding green dots.”
The subtle change has triggered intense speculation. Some believe the green dots could hint at stock buybacks or other balance-sheet maneuvers. Others wonder if it’s a signal that Strategy may be open to selling bitcoin—an idea long considered unthinkable given Saylor’s mantra: “You do not sell your Bitcoin.”
Adding to the intrigue, CEO Phong Le recently noted that if Strategy’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) drops below 1, the company could sell BTC to fund dividends on its perpetual preferred equity. He also explained that if ever needed, Strategy could selectively sell higher cost-basis coins to optimize capital gains and even increase bitcoin-per-share.
All of this comes as Strategy’s stock remains under pressure—down 41% year-to-date and nearly 70% from last year’s all-time high—limiting its ability to raise cash through common stock issuance and pushing it toward preferred share financing.
Saylor’s cryptic message may be playful, strategic, or signaling the start of a new chapter. Whatever the intention, the market is paying close attention to Strategy’s next move.
Bitcoin Compression Signals a Major Market Turning Point
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a tightly compressed market structure as price continues to trade beneath both the 9-day and 20-day EMAs. The weakening momentum and downward-sloping trend lines suggest sellers still maintain the upper hand, while the RSI’s position below neutral reinforces the lack of bullish control.
Order-book data highlights a tense battleground. Multiple bid walls around the $90.6K–$90.8K zone are helping stabilize the range, but stacked ask walls near $91K continue to block upward movement. This creates a narrow liquidity corridor where any break could quickly determine the next directional push.
The broader structure places key resistance at $94,270 and deeper supports around $84,739 and $84,250. A failure to reclaim the overhead EMAs increases the likelihood of a gradual drift toward the stronger support band near $84K. Conversely, clearing the $91K liquidity ceiling could trigger a short squeeze that sends Bitcoin toward mid-range resistance, though such a move would likely remain corrective unless $94K is flipped into support.
Traders watching this setup see a potential inflection point forming. With compressed volatility, declining momentum, and clearly defined liquidity walls, Bitcoin appears ready for its next decisive move—up or down.
Solana Approaches a Make-or-Break Moment on the 1D Chart
Solana has entered a pivotal zone on the 1-day chart, where tightening price action and stacked liquidity walls suggest a major move is approaching. With SOL trading below both its short-term EMAs, bearish pressure remains present, but the indicators now show momentum cooling rather than deepening. The RSI sits in a neutral-bearish zone, while the MACD histogram reveals fading downside strength—conditions that often precede a reversal attempt if buyers step in at key levels.
The support structure beneath the market is substantial. SOL continues to defend the $135.32 zone, with deeper layers at $131.71 and $131.37. Below those, heavy bid walls at $130, $130.75, and $129.29 represent major liquidity shelves capable of triggering sharp bounces. However, if these walls break, the market could quickly unwind 4–5% as sell-side momentum accelerates.
On the upside, Solana faces a dense resistance cluster. Price must reclaim $139.02 to initiate any meaningful shift in sentiment. Strong ask walls at $143, $144, and $145 create a formidable ceiling; clearing each of these liquidity blocks could unlock fast expansions of 4–6% toward the higher resistance at $146.48.
Traders will be watching for either a breakout above these sell walls—signaling renewed bullish strength—or a loss of the $130 liquidity zone, which would likely trigger a leg lower. With both sides of the order book heavily fortified, SOL appears primed for volatility as soon as one barrier gives way.
Litecoin Enters a Critical Phase as Momentum Weakens and Liquidity Tightens
Litecoin has entered a pivotal stage on the daily chart, with weakening momentum and tightening liquidity shaping a challenging environment for traders. The asset continues to trade below its short- and medium-term trend levels, signaling that sellers remain in control. Momentum indicators show fading bullish strength, while the MACD remains firmly negative—reinforcing a bearish tilt.
Price action is also trapped beneath a cluster of key resistance levels around the mid-$80 range, areas that have repeatedly rejected upward attempts. Until these zones are reclaimed, upside continuation remains limited. On the downside, Litecoin is clinging to a narrow support band just above $83, with deeper liquidity layers waiting below. Order-book data reveals heavy bid walls at $82.43, $80, and $75—each acting as progressively larger defensive lines that could trigger sharper declines if absorbed.
At the same time, large ask walls near $84.18, $84.26, and $85.50 highlight the strong sell pressure overhead. Clearing these areas would be necessary for any meaningful recovery, but current momentum makes that a difficult task.
The setup favors short-biased strategies unless momentum shifts significantly. Long-side traders may prefer waiting for either a reclaim of the short-term EMA or a deeper liquidity sweep into the $80–$75 region where risk-to-reward improves. Until then, Litecoin remains in a fragile position, with its next major move likely dictated by how these liquidity clusters react.
CME Outage Triggers Global Market Freeze Amid Thin Holiday Liquidity
CME faced one of its most disruptive incidents in years after a cooling failure at its Aurora, Illinois data center brought global futures trading to a standstill for nearly 10 hours. The breakdown halted activity across equities, commodities, currencies, energy, and crypto markets—leaving traders in Asia and Europe unable to close or adjust positions during one of the quietest liquidity windows of the year.
The outage hit as silver futures were approaching record highs and Bitcoin futures were preparing to reopen after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, amplifying speculation and frustration. Traders publicly questioned how a single point of failure could freeze the entire futures complex, with some even calling for trade cancellations due to the inability to manage risk during moving markets.
CyrusOne later confirmed that a cooling system malfunction was responsible, underscoring long-standing concerns about the vulnerability of centralized market infrastructure. Even after Globex came back online, delays persisted in key Treasury and rate products, adding to operational stress for firms handling month-end rolls.
The timing is particularly sensitive for CME, which is preparing to shift its cryptocurrency derivatives into a full 24/7 trading cycle starting in early 2026. The outage now raises fresh questions about whether the exchange’s technology stack is ready to support uninterrupted global crypto trading.
Despite the disruption, Bitcoin futures rebounded strongly after reopening, climbing above $93,000 as the broader market digested the event—but the debate around systemic risk and infrastructure resilience is far from over.
Crypto Funding Roars Back With a $25B Surge in 2025
Crypto investment is experiencing a dramatic resurgence in 2025, with nearly $25 billion deployed into blockchain companies — a staggering 150% increase from last year. The sharp rise signals a powerful return of institutional confidence, driven by firms like BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Paradigm, and Sequoia Capital.
According to sector data, centralised exchanges led the way with $4.4 billion in funding, followed by prediction markets at $3.2 billion and DeFi platforms at $2.9 billion. Analysts say the capital is flowing toward companies with strong regulatory alignment, resilient operations, and the ability to integrate with traditional financial standards.
Industry leaders describe the shift as a sign of market maturity. Investors are prioritizing sustainable business models, proven revenue streams, and high-integrity infrastructure — a contrast to the speculation-driven cycles of earlier years.
Major raises this year include Binance’s $2 billion round led by MGX, Polymarket’s $2 billion raise backed by ICE, and Circle’s $1.1 billion IPO, supported by some of Wall Street’s largest banks. Together, these deals underscore a tightening relationship between crypto and global finance, marking 2025 as a transformative year for the ecosystem.
Arthur Hayes Issues Stark Warning on Monad’s Long-Term Survival
Arthur Hayes has delivered one of his most direct critiques yet of a new layer-1 blockchain, warning that Monad could suffer a 99% collapse despite its strong debut and heavy venture capital backing. Speaking on Altcoin Daily, Hayes argued that Monad is structured as a “high FDV, low-float VC coin,” a setup he believes almost always ends with deep sell pressure once insider tokens begin unlocking. MON may be up more than 40% since launch, but Hayes says early price action is typical for low-float tokens and rarely reflects true long-term demand.
Hayes also questioned the broader proliferation of new L1 networks, saying only a handful will remain relevant through the next market cycle. In his view, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash have already secured lasting network effects and real utility, leaving little room for new entrants to gain meaningful traction.
Despite his bearish stance on Monad, Hayes remains bullish on the overall crypto landscape. He believes the market is on the verge of a major liquidity expansion driven by government stimulus, political cycles, and global credit growth. According to Hayes, these macro forces — not Bitcoin halvings — have historically fueled the biggest bull markets.
Looking forward, Hayes expects privacy technologies and zero-knowledge systems to become dominant trends, with institutional activity concentrating around Ethereum-based financial infrastructure. Earlier this month, he revealed that Zcash is now his family office’s second-largest position behind Bitcoin, underscoring his conviction in the privacy narrative.
BlackRock Quietly Expands Bitcoin Exposure Through Its Own ETF
BlackRock’s Strategic Income Opportunities Portfolio has increased its holdings of the firm’s own iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), boosting its position by 14% during the third quarter. A new SEC filing shows the portfolio now holds 2.39 million IBIT shares worth roughly $155.8 million, up from 2.09 million at the end of June.
The move underscores how deeply Bitcoin exposure is being integrated into traditional multi-asset strategies. Although the fund is primarily an unconstrained bond portfolio, its flexible mandate allows it to add nontraditional assets—such as ETFs—when they support its total return and diversification goals. That flexibility is now being used to incorporate IBIT directly into the portfolio’s construction.
Institutional demand for IBIT continues to climb. Fintel data shows more than 400 million shares are now held by institutions, the highest level since the ETF launched. At the same time, Nasdaq ISE has filed to raise the position limit for IBIT options to one million contracts, signaling rapidly expanding derivatives activity around the ETF.
Bitcoin itself has climbed above $91,000, and IBIT is trading up in premarket hours at around $52. BlackRock’s increased internal allocation highlights the strengthening bridge between traditional finance and digital assets—and signals that institutional participation in Bitcoin is still accelerating.
IMF Sounds the Alarm as Tokenized Markets Enter a New Phase
The IMF has released a new explainer video warning that tokenized markets—despite offering faster settlement, lower costs, and automated infrastructure—may introduce new layers of volatility and systemic risk. According to the Fund, tokenization streamlines traditional processes by removing intermediaries like clearinghouses and registrars, allowing assets to settle almost instantly and improving collateral efficiency. Early research, it says, already shows significant cost savings across pilot markets.
But the IMF cautions that these same efficiencies can magnify familiar dangers. Automated trading in tokenized environments may accelerate flash-crash dynamics, while complex smart-contract chains could interact like “falling dominoes,” turning isolated issues into full-scale systemic shocks. Fragmentation is another concern, with the IMF warning that the rise of multiple tokenized platforms that “don’t speak to each other” could undermine liquidity and the very efficiencies tokenization promises.
The video also notes that governments will not stay passive. As history shows—from Bretton Woods in 1944 to the shift toward fiat currencies in the 1970s—major evolutions in money have always involved direct state intervention. The IMF suggests the same pattern is likely to repeat as tokenization becomes a defining shift in global finance.
With tokenized markets now a multibillion-dollar industry led by products like BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, the IMF’s decision to elevate its research into public communication signals a pivotal moment: tokenization is no longer a fringe experiment but a mainstream policy concern that will evolve under increasing regulatory scrutiny.
Tether Halts Uruguay Bitcoin Mining as Energy Costs Surge
Tether has paused its Bitcoin mining operations in Uruguay after rising energy costs and unresolved debt disputes made the project unsustainable. The company formally notified Uruguay’s Ministry of Labor of the suspension and laid off 30 employees, marking a major setback to its Latin American mining ambitions.
The halt follows months of tension with state-owned utility UTE over more than $4.8 million in alleged unpaid electricity and project-related bills. While Tether previously denied plans to exit the country, it confirmed the debt and said it has been working with officials to resolve the issue.
Tether launched its Uruguay mining initiative in 2023, branding it as a flagship renewable-powered operation. Local reports suggest the company invested at least $150 million into infrastructure—well below the $500 million it initially planned. Energy price volatility driven by drought and grid strain ultimately undercut the project’s sustainability.
Despite the pause, Tether says it remains committed to long-term renewable-energy initiatives across Latin America and is evaluating its next steps in Uruguay and the region.
Amundi Makes a Major Move Into Blockchain With First Tokenized Money Market Fund
Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager with $2.3 trillion in AUM, has taken a decisive leap into on-chain finance by launching its first tokenized share class for a money market fund on the public Ethereum blockchain. The new class — Amundi Funds Cash EUR – J28 EUR DLT — offers fully traceable fund units recorded directly on Ethereum, marking one of the most significant blockchain integrations to date by a major European financial institution.
Developed in partnership with asset-servicing giant CACEIS, the initiative introduces blockchain-based order routing, digital investor wallets, and support for 24/7 subscription and redemption workflows. CACEIS CEO Jean-Pierre Michalowski said the project brings the industry closer to round-the-clock fund operations powered by stablecoins or future central bank digital currencies.
Amundi emphasized that the tokenized share class complements existing distribution channels rather than replacing them, while opening doors to new investor segments and more efficient fund infrastructure. Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients and ESG, called tokenization a global transformation that will accelerate in the coming years.
The launch comes amid explosive growth in real-world asset tokenization, with the sector’s market cap rising from $15.2 billion to $37.1 billion in 2025. Ethereum now hosts $12.4 billion in RWAs, second only to the Provenance blockchain.
Amundi’s move signals a new era for European asset management — one where blockchain becomes a foundational layer for market efficiency, transparency, and global investor access.
SUI Price Loses Momentum as Key Liquidity Walls Signal a Potential Breakdown
SUI’s daily chart is flashing early warnings as momentum continues to weaken and the market struggles to overcome heavy sell-side liquidity. The price has been unable to reclaim short-term momentum zones, with the 9-day EMA acting as a persistent ceiling and the 20-day EMA reinforcing the broader downtrend. This structure reflects a market drifting lower, with buyers losing initiative and sellers gradually pressing the advantage.
Momentum indicators further support this view. The MACD remains below the signal line, hinting that bearish pressure still dominates even if downside velocity is slowing. Meanwhile, the RSI sits in a weak range that often precedes either a modest relief bounce or further losses if structural support gives way. The tone remains cautious, and traders are watching whether SUI can avoid slipping into deeper downside territory.
Order-book data reveals that sellers currently hold a tactical edge. Thick ask walls near the current price continue to block upward movement, with two layers of resistance sitting just cents above spot. Clearing them could spark a brief upside move, but liquidity concentration suggests strong reluctance from the market to allow price expansion. On the other side, major bid walls—especially the one anchored near 1.350—represent crucial support. If these walls fail, the chart opens up to a notable downside gap that could accelerate selling pressure.
Support levels at 1.345, 0.811, and 0.760 form the backbone of SUI’s defensive structure. A breakdown beneath the first of these levels would likely extend the downtrend, especially given the thin liquidity that follows. Resistance at 1.743, 1.856, and 2.082 remains firmly intact and will need to be reclaimed before any meaningful trend reversal can begin.
ZEC Faces Mounting Pressure as Key Support Levels Tighten
ZEC is entering a decisive phase on the daily chart as bearish momentum deepens and major liquidity walls form on both sides of the price. With the asset trading below its short-term and mid-term EMAs, the broader structure now leans clearly in favor of sellers. The downward slope of both moving averages shows that bullish attempts have repeatedly failed to generate sustained follow-through, keeping ZEC locked under a bearish trend bias.
Momentum indicators add further weight to this view. The MACD continues to widen in negative territory, signaling increasing downside pressure rather than stabilization. RSI remains stuck in a neutral-but-tilted-bearish zone, reflecting a market where buyers lack conviction and sellers gradually gain control. Together, these indicators paint a picture of weakening strength and rising vulnerability as price drifts toward critical support.
The order book reinforces this narrative. Large bid walls between 448 and 444 USDT currently act as ZEC’s last line of short-term defense. A break through these levels could trigger a rapid 4–5% slide toward the broader structural support at 443.43 USDT. If momentum accelerates beyond that, deeper supports at 205.07 and 127.26 USDT come into focus, though reaching those zones would likely require a major shift in overall market sentiment.
On the upside, ZEC faces equally challenging barriers. Heavy ask walls at 488, 484, and 483 USDT restrict any meaningful recovery attempts. Only a high-volume breakout above these levels would signal that buyers have regained control, potentially paving the way for a push toward the bigger swing resistances at 645.44 and 699.00 USDT. Until then, upside moves are likely to be short-lived.
Shiba Inu Nears a Breakout Trigger as Liquidity Walls Tighten the Market
Shiba Inu (SHIBUSDT) is entering a decisive phase on the daily chart, with its price compressing beneath key resistance zones while momentum indicators begin to stabilize. The short-term trend is attempting to shift as the faster EMA shows signs of recovery, yet it still lags the longer-term average—reflecting a market that's preparing for a move but hasn’t yet committed. The MACD’s gradual transition from bearish contraction to neutral positioning also supports this narrative, signaling that downward momentum is fading even if bullish conviction remains limited. Meanwhile, the RSI hovering in mid-range levels suggests SHIB has room to move in either direction depending on which side gains control.
The most significant forces shaping SHIB’s next move may come from the order book. Multiple large bid walls clustered at 0.00001 represent notable buyer interest, but if any of these were to break, the downside could accelerate sharply, with potential declines reaching 20–32%. On the flip side, massive ask walls at 0.00002 create a ceiling that, if cleared, could unleash a strong upside burst—models suggest gains of 60–80% toward higher resistance levels. These liquidity pockets create a high-volatility setup where any breakout or breakdown could be fast and dramatic.
Structurally, SHIB needs to reclaim 0.00001014 to begin shifting trend sentiment in its favor, with further upside potential toward 0.00001056 and 0.00001171. Holding above support at 0.00000780 remains essential for avoiding a deeper bearish continuation. For traders, the best risk-managed long setups emerge above confirmed resistance flips, while shorts become favorable only if price breaks below major support and liquidity begins to thin.
BNB Faces a Pivotal Test as Heavy Sell Walls Cap the $900 Breakout
BNB is entering a decisive phase on the daily chart as persistent resistance at the $900 level continues to keep bullish momentum in check. Despite several attempts to reclaim this key psychological zone, sellers have repeatedly stepped in, signaling hesitation from buyers and strengthening the bearish undertone.
Short-term trend signals show price struggling around the fast EMA, reflecting a lack of upward force behind recent moves. The broader trend remains pressured as the medium-term EMA drifts above price and gradually turns downward, often a sign of fading demand. Momentum indicators echo this narrative: the MACD remains negative even as bearish pressure slowly eases, while RSI sits below the midpoint, showing that sellers still dominate despite early signs of stabilization.
The chart now revolves around critical levels. Resistance remains stacked at $900.21, $932.79, and $996.63, with the first barrier acting as the major ceiling for any short-term recovery. If price fails to regain this territory, support levels at $843.63, $839.32, and $830.46 become increasingly vulnerable to a retest.
Order flow adds another layer of complexity. Dense ask walls between $899.63 and $901.42—especially the massive wall at $900—reinforce the difficulty buyers face in reclaiming higher ground. On the other side, bid walls near $885–$889 suggest buyers are defending aggressively, but losing these layers could trigger a sharper drop as liquidity thins.
For traders, the setup offers opportunities on both sides. Short positions may find favorable conditions on failed pushes into the $898–$900 region, targeting the $860s or deeper support zones if momentum fades further. Long positions, however, carry greater risk unless BNB secures a clean daily close above $900 with strengthening momentum.
Ethereum Activates Its Biggest Capacity Boost in Four Years With 60M Gas Limit
Ethereum’s base layer just received its largest capacity upgrade in years, as validators collectively raised the block gas limit to 60 million — the highest level since 2020. The change, driven by broad validator consensus and championed through the community-led “Pump The Gas” initiative, expands Ethereum’s execution capacity, reduces congestion, and prepares the network for December’s Fusaka upgrade.
More than 513,000 validators signaled in favor of the increase, pushing the network past the activation threshold and automatically elevating the limit from 45M to 60M. The expanded block capacity allows more operations to fit into each block, improving throughput for everything from token transfers to complex smart-contract interactions. Researchers say the upgrade should ease fee pressure during high-demand periods and create a more flexible environment for scaling solutions throughout 2025.
The timing is deliberate. The Fusaka upgrade — currently in its final testing phase on the Hoodi testnet — is set to introduce deeper architectural improvements on Dec. 3. The new gas limit acts as a foundational layer for those changes, giving Ethereum additional room to grow without relying on a hard fork or centralized intervention.
Ethereum Foundation researcher Toni Wahrstätter noted that the limit has doubled in a single year, calling the achievement “only the beginning.” Vitalik Buterin echoed that sentiment, emphasizing that future scaling will be more targeted: larger blocks combined with smarter pricing to discourage inefficient computation.
With validators united and new capacity already live, Ethereum is entering a new phase of base-layer performance — one that strengthens the network ahead of its next major upgrade cycle.
IBIT Powers a Profit Comeback as Bitcoin Reclaims Key Cost-Basis Levels
Bitcoin ETF investors have swung back into profitable territory, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading a sharp rebound as BTC climbs above critical cost-basis thresholds. Arkham data shows IBIT holders now sitting on $3.2 billion in unrealized gains—a dramatic turnaround from just days ago, when the average position was near break-even after a steep drawdown earlier this month.
The recovery is already easing selling pressure across the sector. After a wave of outflows on Nov. 20, spot Bitcoin ETFs have now logged their first two-day inflow streak in two weeks, bringing in $21 million on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors. IBIT remains the only fund with net positive inflows for 2025, reinforcing its reputation as the primary institutional on-ramp for Bitcoin exposure.
Bitcoin’s surge above the $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis marks another key milestone, signaling that the average ETF investor is no longer underwater. This shift reduces the risk of capitulation selling and supports a more stable demand base—especially as many ETF participants are long-term allocators rather than short-term traders.
Macro conditions are also turning in Bitcoin’s favor. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting has soared to 85%, up from just 39% a week earlier. Historically, rising expectations of monetary easing have boosted risk assets, and Bitcoin is once again behaving as a high-beta beneficiary of that outlook.
With IBIT profitability surging, sector-wide inflows returning, and rate-cut optimism building, Bitcoin’s ETF-driven market structure appears to be stabilizing. Whether this momentum continues may depend on the Fed—but for now, the ETF investor base is firmly back in the black.