Recently, the financial and crypto circles can be described as 'fire and ice': on one side, Goldman Sachs warns that $40 billion worth of stocks will be sold next week, with technical indicators in the US stock market flashing red; on the other side, Tether has quietly accumulated 116 tons of gold, predicting that the market platform's valuation will double in a month. Behind these seemingly unrelated events lies a new logic of asset allocation, which I will explain in simple terms today.
Market warning: The S&P has broken a critical point, is a $40 billion sell-off coming?
The recent days in the US stock market have been tough, and a key signal breaking could trigger a chain reaction.
On Wednesday local time, the S&P 500 index fell below the 6725-point 'life and death line' — as early as the beginning of this week, there were views warning that once this level and the 50-day moving average are lost, the technical situation would become dangerous. Now, it has indeed come true, and on Thursday the S&P 500 further fell below the 100-day moving average, marking the first time since February this year.
The most concerning aspect is that this level is the 'action directive' for trend-following hedge funds (such as CTAs). Goldman Sachs clearly stated in its report to clients that if this number is breached, these funds will either quickly sell stocks to stop losses or increase short positions betting on further declines. According to Goldman Sachs' estimates, in the coming week, $39 billion worth of stocks may be sold globally, and if stock prices continue to fall, the selling scale could even reach $65 billion. It should be noted that before breaching the level, these funds still held $150 billion in long stock positions, and once they collectively flip, the impact can be imagined.
Goldman Sachs also mentioned that the last time a similar critical level was breached was in October, and before that in April when Trump announced the tariff proposal, each time triggering significant market volatility. For ordinary investors, the upcoming week requires extra vigilance, as this kind of 'programmatic selling' by quantitative funds could amplify market declines.
Big players' hidden moves: Tether hoards 116 tons of gold, more than many central banks.
While the stock market is flashing red, stablecoin giant Tether has quietly accumulated its 'assets', and they are the most hardcore gold.
Jefferies' latest report shows that Tether has hoarded at least 116 tons of gold, making it one of the world's largest non-sovereign gold holders, with a gold quantity comparable to that of some small countries' central banks. More astonishingly, in just the third quarter alone, it added 26 tons of gold, accounting for 2% of global gold demand, which has a significant impact on gold supply and prices.
This gold is not just 'stored for fun'; part of it is used to support its gold token XAUt (currently valued at about $1.5 billion), while the remainder serves as reserves for USDT. It is noteworthy that Tether's current profitability is extremely strong, with CEO Ardoino projecting profits could reach $15 billion by 2025. Jefferies analysts calculated: even if only half of the profits are used to buy gold, it could hoard nearly 60 tons more each year, and at this rate, it will soon become a 'key player' in the gold market.
Tether's recent operations are actually quite clever: gold is a traditional 'safe-haven asset', and USDT, as the 'hard currency' of the crypto circle, using gold as reserves can enhance user trust and stabilize fundamentals during market fluctuations, effectively adding a layer of 'golden armor' to its stablecoin.
Industry highlights: prediction markets are heating up, with valuations doubling in a month.
In the intersection of crypto and finance, prediction markets have recently become the darling of capital, and the financing rhythm of leading platform Kalshi is simply like riding a rocket.
According to TechCrunch, Kalshi has just completed a $1 billion financing round, with its valuation skyrocketing to $11 billion. Even more exaggerated, just a month ago it raised $300 million, at that time valued at $5 billion, and in just 30 days its valuation more than doubled. This financing was led by big players like Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, with renowned investors such as Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm also participating, illustrating the industry's confidence in prediction markets.
Kalshi's success is fundamentally due to riding the 'compliance' wave. It is a regulated exchange under the US CFTC, unlike some offshore or decentralized platforms that 'walk the gray area', allowing users to trade with fiat currency confidently, whether they are institutions or retail investors. Its business is also quite interesting, providing 'event contracts', such as betting on inflation rate fluctuations or political election outcomes, turning uncertain events into tradable assets.
Its valuation is now nearly catching up with its competitor Polymarket (targeting $12-15 billion). Under the rivalry of these two giants, the prediction market sector may welcome more players and funding, becoming a new growth pole for the crypto industry.
Other key dynamics: asset transfers + new indices, is the market becoming more regulated?
In addition to the major events mentioned above, there are two details worth noting, both pointing to a trend of 'greater regulation' in the crypto industry.
1. The US government is transferring involved assets; there are new developments in the FTX case.
According to on-chain monitoring, in the past 6 hours, the US government transferred seized assets from the FTX-Alameda and Bitfinex hacker cases to a new wallet, including 15.13 million TRX (about $4.2 million), 1,066 WETH (about $3.01 million), and others. Although the amount transferred this time is not particularly large, it is an important signal for case advancement — the sorting and transfer of seized assets indicate that it may enter the return process in the future, which is good news for the victims from back then.
2. CME is launching a Bitcoin volatility index, making it easier for institutional investors.
CME and CF Benchmarks announced that on December 2, they will launch two Bitcoin volatility indices, BVX and BVXS. Simply put, these two indices can tell the market in advance 'how much Bitcoin might fluctuate in the next 30 days', serving as a forward-looking risk indicator.
For institutional investors, this is a 'must-have tool' — previously, wanting to invest in Bitcoin, it was difficult to accurately assess volatility risks. With this index, it is now possible to evaluate Bitcoin just like analyzing stock volatility, which will attract more traditional institutions to enter the market, making the crypto market more mature.
Summary: Opportunities lie within volatility, compliance and risk aversion are the core logic.
This week's market dynamics actually outlines two core logics: first, the short-term risk in traditional stock markets is heating up, and the critical level of the S&P falling could trigger quantitative sell-offs, so caution is advised in the short term; second, the crypto industry is accelerating down both paths of 'risk aversion' and 'compliance', with Tether hoarding gold to enhance risk resistance, Kalshi leveraging compliance for major financing, and the CME launching indices to facilitate institutional entry — all of which indicate that the crypto industry is not 'growing wildly' but is increasingly aligning with traditional finance.
For investors, future opportunities may not lie in blindly chasing highs, but in recognizing these trends: such as compliant prediction markets, stablecoin ecosystems backed by hard assets, and cryptocurrency assets with risk hedging tools. Of course, short-term fluctuations in the stock market shouldn't be overlooked, as there are no completely isolated assets in a globalized market; maintaining caution and diversified allocations is the key.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should consider their own risk tolerance and investment objectives, rationally view cryptocurrency investment, and avoid blindly following trends.
