Recently, there has been a surge of significant news in the global market. The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to 80%, and the cryptocurrency market is greeted with dual benefits from ETF stabilization and new ETF launches. Citigroup also maintains a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Behind these news are the core trends of the market's future, explained clearly in simple terms.
Big moves from the Federal Reserve: The probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketed to 82.9%, with core officials supporting it.
The Federal Reserve policy that the market is most concerned about now has a clear signal of turning.
According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged to 82.9%, a significant increase from the previous day's 69.4%, while the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is only 17.1%. Looking further ahead, by January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut reaches 65.4%, with even a 22% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
This expectation of a rate cut is not unfounded and has received support from key officials at the Federal Reserve. San Francisco Fed President and 2027 FOMC voting member Daly has clearly stated her support for a rate cut in December. She believes that the current labor market is already weak enough that there could be sudden deterioration, a 'non-linear change,' which is harder to control than a rebound in inflation. Regarding inflation, the cost increases driven by tariffs are milder than expected, with a lower risk of an outbreak.
It is worth noting that Daly rarely publicly disagrees with Powell, and even though she does not have a vote this year, her views could become a key force in resolving policy differences at the December FOMC meeting. For the market, a rate cut means lower funding costs, and cautious funds may flow back into risk assets, which is undoubtedly a significant positive.
The crypto market welcomes a double blessing: ETF stabilization + new XRP ETF launch.
As expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve rise, the crypto market has also received good news, and the downturn seems to be reversing.
1. The signal of Bitcoin ETF stabilization is clear, and shorts are being liquidated on a large scale.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed key data: BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen short interest drop to its lowest level since April. This means that short sellers who previously bet on Bitcoin's decline are closing their positions, significantly reducing market selling pressure.
Although the global crypto ETP encountered a net outflow of $1.9 billion last week, with the US Bitcoin ETF accounting for $1.2 billion, a turning point has emerged — last Friday marked the first net inflow of funds in a week, and Bitcoin's price is currently stable around $88,600. Balchunas emphasized that Bitcoin has a '100% recovery record,' rebounding over 50% in just two months after the sharp drop in April this year. The market is currently in a stage of thin liquidity consolidation, with traders generally expecting fluctuations in the $85,000-$90,000 range.
2. Wall Street giants are doubling down, the new XRP ETF is officially launched.
The crypto ETF camp is still expanding, and traditional funding channels are becoming increasingly smooth.
One of Wall Street's oldest institutions — Franklin Templeton, launched the XRP exchange-traded fund (XRPZ) on the NYSE Arca platform on Monday. This provides investors with a regulated trading channel for XRP, allowing participation without having to self-custody assets.
As of now, Franklin Templeton's crypto product line has fully covered Bitcoin (EZBC), Ethereum (EZET), Ripple (XRPZ), and a diversified digital asset fund (EZPZ), providing traditional investors with richer choices and furthering the compliance process of crypto assets.
Citigroup remains optimistic: Bitcoin's 12-month target remains at $181,000.
In the face of recent market volatility, institutions have not lowered their expectations for crypto assets. Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders clearly stated that the target of Bitcoin rising to $181,000 within 12 months remains unchanged.
He pointed out that $80,000 is a key support level for Bitcoin ETF holders, and the current cautious sentiment in the market is only temporary — long-term holders are observing, while new entrants are waiting for technical stabilization, not a sign of waning interest in crypto assets. Moreover, breakthroughs in regulation next year are likely to reignite market demand and push prices higher.
Technology + Policy Interaction: Trump launches the 'Genesis Mission,' AI + research welcomes a new transformation.
In addition to the financial market, the technology sector is also welcoming significant policies. U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to launch the 'Genesis Mission' plan, fully promoting the AI research revolution.
This plan is referred to as 'the largest integration of federal scientific resources since the Apollo program.' The core is to build an AI platform to activate federal scientific datasets — the Department of Energy will use AI to analyze the vast data from 17 national laboratories, and agencies must convert datasets into formats compatible with AI tools. More importantly, these government research data and federal computing infrastructure will be open to university researchers, private enterprises, and national security personnel.
According to the White House's plan, this initiative is expected to accelerate scientific breakthroughs in multiple fields such as medicine, energy production, and engineering, and the deep integration of AI and research may indirectly impact the long-term value of technology assets.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should rationally consider cryptocurrency investments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals and should not blindly follow trends.
