Last night, the September non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 in employment, far exceeding expectations. The initial jobless claims data also performed reasonably well, but the unemployment rate for September recorded at 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, indicating a growing trend. However, the preferred September non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims data supported the views of some 'hawkish' Fed officials regarding the December rate meeting. October is a standstill month, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain poor, making it more difficult to reference missing data for the December rate cut decision.
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's hawks spoke out, with Governor Cook stating that the possibility of a significant decline in asset prices has increased. Harmack noted that additional interest rate cuts would 'increase financial stability risks,' while Barr and Goolsbee reiterated their concerns about inflation, stating that caution is needed for further rate cuts. During this period, the cryptocurrency market faced pressured sell-offs.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market opened high but fell sharply during the day, experiencing the most severe intraday reversal since April, with the benchmark index falling to a two-month low. The selling sentiment also impacts the cryptocurrency market. Market panic spreads extremely, Bitcoin drops again during the day, breaking below 88000 to around 86000, and Ethereum, after breaking 2900, tests 2800, intensifying selling pressure!
From a technical perspective, the recent trend has continued to lean towards weakness, and this time has even broken down. On the indicators, BTC weekly and daily chart indicators are all pressing downwards. The MACD negative value continues to expand bearish, and the high ADX indicates a weak trend, with bearish sentiment prevailing. As mentioned in last week's analysis, once the 90000 level is lost, the next significant support level will be in the 86000-78000 area, which is a dense support area seen on the technical side, and also a key area for this decline and correction. If it breaks below that, the characteristics of a bear market will be even more apparent.
After a sharp short-term drop, the hourly and half-hour indicators are severely oversold, and now they are running with reduced volume. After the market stabilizes, there will be a correction rebound demand during the day. Pay attention to the rebound situation during the Asian and European sessions. The short-term resistance above is around the 90000 level.
Short-term trading advice for Bitcoin:
1. Defend long positions near the 86000-85500 area, target 87300-88000
2. Short positions near the 89500-90200 area on rebound, target 89000-88500
Ethereum is also influenced by macroeconomic conditions and changes in capital, with weak buying pressure leading to a continuous decline, mirroring the trend of Bitcoin.
From a technical perspective, ETH's trend shows characteristics of probing support but weak rebounds. According to technical data, ETH’s average true volatility range is approximately between 8.5% and 9.4%, indicating that its recent fluctuations are still quite intense. In terms of support/resistance structure, after breaking below the 3000 level, it tested a low of around 2800 USD. This area is also a key short-term support, and corresponding adjustments show that the critical support area of 2800-2200 is key to this round of decline. If this position is lost, it will deepen the bear market characteristics, similar to Bitcoin.
After the overnight plunge, the short-term indicators during the day are reduced, and a rebound correction is expected. Follow Bitcoin's rhythm in Asia and Europe to see the strength of the rebound. In the short term, the support and resistance conversion occurs, with the current resistance at 3000 USD, which is the level that needs to be overcome for a rebound during the day.
Short-term trading advice for Ethereum:
1. Defend long positions near the 2810-2770 area, target 2870-2930
2. Short positions near the 2950-3000 area on rebound, target 2900-2870
【Friendly reminder: Market conditions change rapidly, suggestions are for reference only, for more real-time consultations you can communicate with me online】
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Article by / Jane Crypto
