On November 21, according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 39.6%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 60.4%. On that day, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and New York Fed President Williams stated that the Federal Reserve could cut rates "in the near future" without jeopardizing its inflation target. Influenced by this statement, Polymarket shows that the "probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 61%". Today, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 69.4%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 30.6%.

And prior to Williams's remarks, the BTC price had been continuously declining, even touching $82,000. After the comments on rate cuts were made, the BTC price began to slowly recover, reaching $87,067.46 at the time of writing.

White House economic advisor Hassett pointed out: The new leadership of the Federal Reserve may be poised to cut interest rates, and Trump may interview candidates for the Federal Reserve in the coming months; we may determine the Federal Reserve Chair candidate around the New Year. The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

I. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting voting mechanism.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve adopts a majority voting system, where each voting member has an equal vote. The committee consists of 12 voting members, divided into two parts: permanent voting members and rotating voting members.

  • All members of the board (up to seven);

  • President of the New York Federal Reserve;

  • Among the remaining 11 Reserve Bank presidents, 4 will take turns serving, with a term of one year.

The seven Reserve Bank presidents without voting rights will attend the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and participate in committee discussions.

Voting mechanism

  • Majority vote decision: At the end of each two-day meeting, attendees will vote on monetary policy proposals (e.g., whether to adjust the target range for the federal funds rate), and proposals that receive a majority vote will be adopted.

  • Consensus: Despite the voting mechanism, FOMC members typically engage in extensive discussion and negotiation to seek consensus, ensuring that policy decisions have broad support and convey a unified message to the market.

  • Dissent record: If a voting member disagrees with the final decision, their dissent will be formally recorded in the meeting minutes, demonstrating the diversity of views within the committee.

LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach stated: "In fact, committee members communicate closely during the gaps between meetings, striving for consensus, but this does not guarantee that consensus will be reached."

Achieving consensus among all members of the Federal Reserve helps convey a unified message from Federal Reserve officials regarding their actions to the market. However, if there are disagreements in the voting results, it may raise questions about whether the Federal Reserve believes its actions are correct and the motivations of Federal Reserve officials.

II. 2025 FOMC Voting Members and Their Tendencies

Permanent voting members (Federal Reserve Board members and New York Fed President)

Jerome H. Powell, Chair (Federal Reserve Board): Undecided.

On October 29, during a press conference following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell stated that the rate cut action may not necessarily last until December as previously widely predicted. "Further rate cuts at the December meeting are by no means a done deal. There are significant disagreements among various parties today. This shows that we have not yet made a decision on the rate trajectory for December." Powell acknowledged the difficult position of the Federal Reserve, with economic trends pulling monetary policy in opposite directions. "What we are facing now is that inflation faces upward risks while employment faces downward risks. We only have one tool... You cannot address both problems at the same time."

John C. Williams, Vice Chair (President of the New York Federal Reserve): Tends to cut interest rates.

Williams stated at a meeting of the Central Bank of Chile that U.S. interest rates may decline without jeopardizing the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, while also helping to prevent a decline in the labor market. "I believe monetary policy is slightly tightening... Therefore, I think there is still room for further adjustments to the federal funds rate target range in the short term to bring the policy stance closer to the neutral range." Williams stated that the Federal Reserve needs to achieve its inflation target without posing excessive risks to the full employment goal.

Michelle W. Bowman, Federal Reserve Governor: Tends to cut interest rates.

Bowman stated after the FOMC's decision to cut rates for the first time since 2025 in September: "Now is the time for the committee to take decisive and proactive action to address signs of declining labor market vitality and fragility. We may have already fallen behind in addressing the increasingly deteriorating labor market conditions."

Stephen I. Miran, Federal Reserve Governor: Tends to cut interest rates.

Milan explicitly supports cutting rates in December and believes it is "very appropriate." He emphasized on November 15 that the overall data since September has been dovish, supporting the Federal Reserve's strengthening dovish stance. Earlier, he suggested a 50 basis point cut, at least 25 basis points. He believes that unless there are significant changes in economic data, continuing to cut rates is a "consistent and reasonable choice." Milan was appointed by Trump as the former chief economic advisor to the White House, raising questions about his independence—his radical stance has exacerbated divisions within the Federal Reserve.

Christopher J. Waller, Federal Reserve Governor: Tends to cut interest rates.

On November 17, Waller stated that he supports another reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the key U.S. interest rate in December to help boost the weak U.S. labor market—and he doubts he will change his mind. Waller stated that based on surveys of consumers and businesses, as well as his own interactions with large employers, he is confident that conditions in the labor market have deteriorated. He pointed out that key employment data, which were delayed due to a record 43-day government shutdown, are likely to show results that are contrary to this. "The labor market remains weak, close to stagnation." Meanwhile, inflation has not surged significantly in recent months. He stated that economic slowdown and high interest rates have suppressed consumer spending, which helps control inflation. "Given the signs of economic growth slowing, and the weak labor market possibly leading to moderate wage growth, I do not believe any factors will lead to accelerated inflation."

Michael S. Barr, Federal Reserve Governor: Cautiously favors cutting interest rates.

On November 20, Michael Barr stated: "I am concerned that inflation remains around 3%, while our target is 2%. So we need to be cautious with monetary policy now, as we want to ensure we achieve our two-fold mission goals."

Lisa D. Cook, Federal Reserve Governor: Undecided.

Cook stated in an interview with the Brookings Institution in Washington: "I determine my monetary policy stance at each meeting based on the latest data from various sources, changes in my expectations, and risk balances. Each meeting, including December's, is a live meeting."

Philip N. Jefferson, Federal Reserve Governor: Undecided.

On November 17, Jefferson pointed out: As the Federal Reserve eases policy to a position that may halt progress on reducing inflation, it needs to "proceed slowly" on further rate cuts. "In recent months, I believe the risk balance in the economy has shifted, with the downward risks to employment increasing compared to the upward risks for inflation, and the upward risks for inflation may have decreased recently." Jefferson will be guided by data and will adopt a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine policy. "At this point, this is an especially cautious approach." Before the December Federal Reserve policy meeting, "how much official data we can see remains unclear."

2025 Rotating Voting Members (Regional Federal Reserve Presidents)

Susan M. Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve: Tends to not cut interest rates.

On November 12, Collins stated: Due to concerns about high inflation, she believes the threshold for further easing of monetary policy is "relatively high" at present. "In the absence of clear evidence of a deterioration in the labor market, I would not easily loosen policy, especially in a situation where government shutdowns have resulted in limited inflation information. In the current highly uncertain environment, it may be appropriate to maintain the policy rate at its current level for a period of time to balance inflation and employment risks."

Alberto G. Musalem, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve: Tends to not cut interest rates.

On November 10, Musalem expressed clear skepticism about the prospects for further monetary easing. In a media interview, he stated: "We must act cautiously at this moment, which is crucial. I believe that the space for further easing without making policy excessively loose is very limited." Musalem believes the current inflation rate is closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. He added that the financial environment, including stock valuations and housing prices, is at a high level; monetary policy is closer to neutral rather than mildly restrictive; and the labor market has also cooled in an orderly manner. "I think we need to continue taking measures to curb inflation."

Jeffrey R. Schmid, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve: Tends to not cut interest rates.

On November 14, Schmidt stated that the role of further rate cuts in reinforcing high inflation may outweigh its supportive effect on the labor market: "I believe further rate cuts will not play a significant role in mending the cracks in the labor market—these pressures are more likely to stem from structural changes in technology and immigration policy. However, cutting rates could have a more lasting impact on inflation, as it would lead the public to increasingly question our commitment to the 2% inflation target." This reasoning is guiding his thoughts on the upcoming December Federal Reserve policy meeting, and he added that he remains open to new information in the coming weeks.

Austan D. Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve: Cautiously favors cutting interest rates.

Goolsbee stated at an event with the Indianapolis Chartered Financial Analyst Association: The process of inflation returning to 2% "appears to have stalled." "This makes me a bit uneasy."

In summary, among the 12 voters, four clearly tend to cut interest rates, while the other eight are undecided or not in favor of cutting rates.

III. External expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December.

  • Barclays Research pointed out that the Federal Reserve's rate decision next month remains uncertain, but Chair Powell is likely to push the FOMC to make a rate cut decision. Based on recent speeches, Barclays believes that Governors Milan, Bowman, and Waller may support cutting rates, while Regional Federal Reserve Presidents Musalem and Schmidt tend to maintain rates. Governors Barr and Jefferson, as well as Goolsbee and Collins's latest statements, show that their positions are not yet clear, but they lean towards maintaining the status quo. Governors Cook and Williams rely on data but seem to support cutting rates more. Barclays stated: "This means that before considering Powell's stance, there may be six voters leaning towards maintaining rates unchanged and five leaning towards cutting rates." The bank added that Powell will ultimately dominate this decision, as the threshold for governors to publicly oppose his position is very high.

  • CITIC Securities research report stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at further rate cuts in December, and the market's expectations for rate cuts have reversed; currently, the market believes there is a 70% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December. The Federal Reserve will enter a quiet period starting November 29, during which Powell has no public speaking or media interview schedule, and his "close ally" Williams's remarks may be the last comments from a Federal Reserve official to impact market expectations. Continuing previous views, a December rate cut is expected to be a "close call," with an extent of 25bps. For the market, the reversal of rate cut expectations combined with the advancement of the "28 points" plan and news of the Trump administration considering exports of H200 chips to China means macro factors will no longer be a source of pressure on the market in the short term, and the market may focus more on issues such as AI companies issuing bonds and cryptocurrency trends.

  • Polymarket predicts the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 67%.