After the New York Federal Reserve Chairman signaled a 'dovish' stance last Friday, raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 70%, two more Federal Reserve officials voiced their support for a rate cut last night. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in December has now increased to 81%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is at 19%! In less than a week, the expectation of a rate cut in December has dramatically reversed in a V-shape!
The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a breather, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both showing signs of rebound. Bitcoin surged to 89,000 in the early hours, once again challenging the 90,000 mark, while Ethereum is slightly stronger, nearing the 3,000 level!
Currently, on-chain data shows an increase in buying pressure, providing momentum for short-term bulls, but whether it can be sustained remains to be seen. I mentioned yesterday morning that the Federal Reserve's speech during the US market is very important. If positive remarks emerge, it will drive the price rebound. Recently, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been significantly affected by this. So, although there is a preference for lowering interest rates, the recent oscillation of hawkish and dovish remarks is also normal, so bulls may still face limitations.
Currently, the price is rising close to the short-term resistance level at 90000, which will face pressure. Although there are signs of continued rebound at the hourly level, the resistance above still exists. During the day, pay attention to the rebound and pullback situation, observing the correction strength. The focus remains on the dynamics related to the Federal Reserve during the evening US session.
Bitcoin short-term operation suggestion reference:
1. Defend near the long position area of 85000-84500, target 86000-86500
2. Sell near the rebound area of 89300-90000, target 88000-87500
Currently, Ethereum is oscillating and rebounding according to the rhythm of the crypto market, but it is slightly stronger compared to Bitcoin, having risen more than 5% in the past 24 hours, with prices testing the 3000 mark again. Macroeconomically, this is due to the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and institutional capital buying has started, which has also added some momentum to Ethereum's price rebound.
From a technical perspective, the daily line closed with a large bullish candle, accompanied by increased trading volume. The short-term has already stabilized above 2800 USD, and the hourly chart shows a step-by-step upward rhythm, with bulls temporarily gaining the upper hand. However, there is still considerable pressure above, and it is difficult to pass the range of 3000 to 3030 USD. Moreover, several long-term moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement. To truly reverse and move upward, these hurdles must be overcome.
Overall, this rebound mainly relies on improved market sentiment and capital inflow support. The focus now is on whether it can stabilize around the 3000 USD mark, as macro uncertainties have not yet been eliminated, and attention must be paid to changes in liquidity and moving average pressure. In the short term, first look at the rebound's pressure and pullback consolidation, with the upper resistance tentatively at the 3000 mark and short-term support at 2820 and 2760 positions.
Ethereum short-term operation suggestion reference:
1. Defend near the long position area of 2800-2750, target 2860-2900
2. Sell near the rebound area of 2970-3030, target 2900-2860
[Friendly Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly, suggestions are for reference only, more real-time consultation can be done by communicating with me online]
—— Original by the author, feel free to follow and like
Written by: Jane Crypto
