The analysis of the US non-farm payroll data is as follows:
Core Data
The number of jobs increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of around 50,000.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%.
The employment data for the previous months has also been revised down: July and August combined were about 33,000 less than previously estimated.
This data has both good news and bad news, specifically analyzed as follows:
Positive Factors:
The increase in the number of jobs exceeded expectations, indicating that the labor market is stronger than many anticipated.
This suggests that the economy has not significantly dropped, and employment is still increasing, which is a positive signal for overall economic activity.
Negative Factors:
Although the increase in jobs is good, the rise in the unemployment rate (4.4%) indicates signs of looseness in the labor market.
For the Federal Reserve, strong employment often means a lower probability of interest rate cuts.
Impact on Federal Reserve Policy:
It has further reduced the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, as the Fed generally hopes to see weak employment, economic slowdown, and reduced inflation pressure before cutting rates.
Currently, employment is still growing, and although the unemployment rate has risen, the increase is not significant, indicating that the economy has not yet given a strong signal of "necessity to cut rates."
Data also indicates: This employment report "further reduced the market's chances of a rate cut in December."
It should be noted that due to the government shutdown in the US, data collection has been interrupted, and the October employment report has been canceled and will be combined with November for release on December 16. $BTC
