For the operations after the regression, I can give myself a score of 7. However, for this trade capturing SOT, I can only give myself a score of 1 [awkward], as my judgment on the bottom was quite early [smirk]. Fortunately, the leverage is low and the cash flow is sufficient, so I didn't feel very anxious. When everyone was probably at their most desperate on Friday, I did my best to provide confidence through social media. Currently, I have already started making a profit, and I won't treat this as a historical turning point; instead, I see it as a structural confirmation of SOT in a major downward channel. So, definitely don't think too broadly, and control your position well. The highest point should be around 9—92. $BTC

Don't be too pessimistic about the current market. Essentially, it is a liquidity crisis issue caused by the government shutdown. Yesterday, the non-farm employment market was very strong, making a rate cut in December seem far away. However, these issues are essentially a matter of 'time' and will ultimately be alleviated by the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet, simply put, it's about releasing liquidity.
Currently, BTC has dropped to the shutdown price for many old miners, which will reduce the selling pressure from miners.
Then there's the question of whether DAT will crash. Companies like MicroStrategy that lead DAT are inherently using high leverage to increase their BTC holdings. For companies like MicroStrategy, the owner has absolute control and will not sell coins due to short-term debt pressure.
In the worst-case scenario, even if there is a crash, it will still be a deleveraging process for the market. The coins from these DAT companies will flow into low-leverage, long-term ETF funds, which is also positive for the market. Given the current volume of BTC, it is impossible for one DAT company to completely collapse it; the long-term trend will not change.
Currently, it is essential to manage risk well, enter steadily in batches, maintain low leverage, and give up short-term asset fluctuations. I believe that in the worst-case scenario, we are still in a 4-year cycle. Historically, the maximum drawdown ratio of Bitcoin in each 4-year cycle shows a declining trend. If this cycle experiences such a situation, with a drop of around 60%, it corresponds to a range of about $50,000. Therefore, it is important to have this psychological expectation!!! #比特币波动性 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#比特币波动性