2025.11.12《$btc》

First, let's review the market. Yesterday, I clearly stated in a brief note that the price had once again entered a phase of adjustment and cycle, which means that yesterday was a clear downward signal. I also reminded that if the price drops into the key support range 【103600-104000】 before 8 PM, it might be wise to hold off on any long positions and observe instead. Particularly pointed out was that if the price continues to fall throughout the day, any short-term rebounds would likely be over, with a significant pullback possible. Looking at the price today, it is basically not much different. Even if you did manage to buy at the bottom in the range 【103600-104000】, a small rebound today means you can exit at any time.

Now, the price is still in an adjustment cycle, and the current rebound resembles ants climbing a tree, with small fluctuations in the K-line slowly rising. For us, it is more important to continue monitoring the upper pressure range.

The key pressure has reached the range 【104000-104400】. If the price can rebound to this point, I will definitely consider taking a short position, at worst, I will set a stop-loss. Even if I make a mistake here, I must take action, as it shows respect for the market. Unless the price cannot even reach this range, it will continue to decline.

Is there a possibility of a trap for short positions? For instance, while rebounding, could there be a significant upward movement with a strong bullish candlestick? There is a possibility, but it is small. Trading is about moving in the direction of greater possibilities. Setting a stop-loss is to guard against unlikely scenarios. Only if the price effectively breaks through the level of 104700, can the bulls have a chance to turn the situation around. Without this condition, it is a high short. Therefore, my thinking is clear.

Well, if we continue to look downward, where do we see next? The next target position is in the range 【101600-101900】. However, to reach here smoothly, the price needs to effectively break below the level of 102700, as this is also a support level. But can we go long? Watch bullish but do not go long. If today the price pulls back, tests the level of 102700 without breaking it, and rebounds again, we will continue to observe and not easily go long. The rest we will look at tomorrow. #币安HODLer空投ALLO #Strategy增持比特币 #美联储重启降息步伐