鬼族研习社

The Federal Reserve announced that it will officially stop the balance sheet reduction starting from December 1. What does this mean? It marks the end of the global dollar liquidity tightening cycle. So, the question arises: with interest rates cut and balance sheet reduction halted, why have prices been continuously dropping, to the point that even today's rebound feels so weak, as if it could turn downward at any moment? What is going on here?

In fact, it's not just the crypto market; including U.S. stocks, there has been a significant sell-off in a short period. What’s the reason? As mentioned yesterday, it mainly boils down to Powell's hawkish remarks, especially regarding the uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December. Additionally, market expectations for a rate cut in December have also significantly decreased. A lower expectation for rate cuts is not good news for all risk assets. Therefore, the expectation for a rate cut in October has already been digested by the market in advance, and with the lowered expectations for December, the market's current behavior is somewhat reasonable.

So the next question arises: isn’t stopping the balance sheet reduction a big deal? After all, it has been ongoing for three years. Why hasn’t the market reacted much? Although the Federal Reserve is no longer reducing its balance sheet, this does not mean that it will immediately start quantitative easing (QE). Moreover, the impact of this on the risk market has not been as immediate as that of rate cuts. It only affects long-term liquidity. However, it’s worth noting a potential good news: only after the Federal Reserve stops the balance sheet reduction might we enter a phase of rapid rate cuts. This is also what we look forward to the most, as it could be a period when global liquidity begins to rise.

Finally, what Powell is most concerned about is the state of employment data. Therefore, I believe that a key data point that can influence the market going forward will be the non-farm payroll numbers. #加密市场回调 #山寨季來了？

New whales are starting to oscillate between profit and loss. Their average holding cost is around $112,831. Can this group of whales holding about 1.12 million BTC completely escape the loss dilemma? This phenomenon marks a critical turning point in market psychology. #加密市场回调 #法国比特币战略储备计划

Market expectations are for a 25 basis point rate cut, and volatility has surged to 54%. The price is currently consolidating around $113,000, maintaining above the 7-day volume weighted average price of $111,600. For now, the bullish structure remains intact.

Current volatility has increased by 190%, and the technical formation shows a stage of accumulation before a breakout. However, note that this so-called accumulation phase does not mean that prices will necessarily rise in the next couple of days. It refers to the phase of accumulation that has emerged since the significant decline, characterized by fluctuations, up to now. #加密市场回调 #法国比特币战略储备计划 #美联储降息预期

2025.10.29《$btc》

Let's briefly review the market. Yesterday's small article had little significance as a guiding reference; the price did indeed stop falling within the support range of 【113400-114000】 and began to rise again, but the breakout failed. Before a new high is made, a more aggressive decline has started. How should I put it, it's expected yet surprising. Last night, a medium bullish candlestick did appear, but it didn't create a new high, which is a bit regrettable.

With the bearish momentum from yesterday, the current market has once again entered an adjustment cycle. The interest rate meeting tonight will also guide the market into greater fluctuations. Therefore, regardless of bullish or bearish positions, one must set stop-losses properly to guard against extreme market conditions. As for my view on this interest rate meeting, I believe the key point is not in the content of the meeting; after all, how many basis points the rate is cut has been anticipated, and what the chairman says is a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments. Both exist. I think the focus is on whether certain whales have taken any actions before and after this interest rate meeting. This is worth paying attention to. Their actions can be significantly amplified in the face of major news, leading to expected outcomes. As for how to monitor this, that requires a bit of operational skill.

In terms of bullish and bearish sentiment, I think it will lean bearish unless today can break through and stabilize above 114100; then we continue to look bullish. If this condition is not met, or if 114100 is just a false breakout, then the cost-effectiveness of shorting at highs is relatively high. The effective pressure range above is 【114100-114600】.

The position mentioned yesterday that is suitable for going long for a rebound is around 112700. Currently, although the price has risen above 113000, seemingly providing support, in reality, it is not much at all. If the 112700 level is broken again, then we will look down towards around 111500. If the price reaches here, there might be a rebound, but it should not directly cause a halt in the price's decline. I believe the place where the price can effectively stop falling and rebound is at least around 109900. #加密市场回调 #法国比特币战略储备计划 #美联储降息预期

2025.10.28《$btc》

The price has adjusted downwards; can we still go long? Will it directly reverse down again, and then immediately get buried?

As it stands, the adjustment is not yet over. The recently mentioned effective support range, 【113400-114000】, has indeed played a role, but as of now, the effect is not significant. Therefore, the downward adjustment may not be over yet.

So, where might this adjustment end? Which range is reliable for going long?

The next support is around the line of 112700. If this position cannot hold, then this adjustment may have some depth. The next position is around 111500. Additionally, there is a possibility of a downturn in the short term within 1-3 days. Moreover, at 2 AM on Thursday, there will be a monetary policy meeting, so before the meeting starts, the volatility should not be too large unless it is particularly close to this time. Currently, funds should be in a wait-and-see state. Therefore, observe the price as it approaches the line of 112700, keep a good stop-loss, and look for opportunities to go long at lower levels. If not, a rebound can also be a viable option.

Alright, having discussed the key support below, where is the key resistance above? The range 【114500-115000】, followed by the range 【115300-115600】. The two resistance ranges are quite close to each other. Therefore, if the price wants to continue to rise, it will be somewhat challenging. But regardless, as long as the short-term trend has not turned bearish, the resistance could be broken, needing just one solid bullish candle. Thus, going long at lower levels is more cost-effective than going short at higher levels. #内容挖矿升级 #加密市场反弹 #巨鲸动向

When the market tests the $115,500 level, if it breaks through and stabilizes above this range, it will indicate that upward momentum will be sustained. #加密市场反弹 #内容挖矿升级 #美联储降息预期

2025.10.27《$btc》

Can it completely rise and create a new high? Yes, but if it can create a new high, it might be the last high for this phase. However, this matter is not what we are discussing today.

The effective pressure range above is 【117200-118000】. As for whether to rely on this pressure range to layout short positions and make potential downward adjustments in the market, that depends on you. You can also look at the price performance to decide. After all, 【117200-118000】 is not an absolute pressure; it is just that when the price is close to this range, there is a higher probability of facing bearish resistance and selling pressure. But as for how much impact it can have on the price, who knows.

Looking at the current trend, the bulls are gradually gaining strength, forming a typical oscillating upward pattern, so going long at lower prices is unlikely to be a loss. Even if adjustments start before reaching the effective pressure range above, it won't drop too low, or you could say it won't drop too deep.

The effective support range below is 【113400-114000】. If today the price encounters resistance and falls back, beginning to adjust, when the price approaches this range, you can be fully alert to look for opportunities. Of course, it is also possible that due to the strength of the bulls, the price may not fall to this range. At that time, you can only think of ways to conduct right-side trading. Remember to always set stop losses in all trades to guard against reversals (though the possibility should be small).

Can we be relatively optimistic here? For example, some people feel that a reversal has already occurred here. In my view, there is no concept of a reversal here; if you broaden your perspective, the overall direction is not a bearish pattern but still maintains a bullish pattern. Therefore, the rise here can either be a solid rise or just a significant rebound. Whether it will encounter selling from the whales again later, no one can say for sure. After all, the interest rate meeting is about to start, and what will happen after it ends, who knows. #加密市场反弹 #美联储降息预期 #内容挖矿升级

As of yesterday's on-chain data, it can be seen that there are holders of less than 1, 1 to 10, and 10 to 100 tokens, all of whom are buying. The whales with over 100 tokens are selling. The quantity of over 2000 tokens is also a relatively large sell-off recently. Moving back, around October 17th, there was also a sell-off of over 2000 tokens. Of course, as always, the bearish forces are still represented by that ancient giant whale.

As for whether this selling action will have a lasting impact, let's look at the position. Firstly, it has certainly impacted market liquidity, making already scarce liquidity even worse. Secondly, the higher the position, the greater the impact. Currently, at this relatively low position, there is some impact, but it won't be too deep. Moreover, this action usually carries some inertia, but this time the whale's sell-off hasn't caused much panic in the market; for example, it rebounded significantly today, and there are still some technical traders looking to buy the dip in anticipation of a rebound.

Therefore, until the predicament is resolved, risk control must be maintained. Don't be stubborn, thinking that after a washout, prices will definitely rise. #加密市场回调 #比特币ETF恢复净流入

The end of the month is very important. Interest rate cuts, trade wars, and the end of the U.S. government shutdown mostly happen at the end of the month. So in a few days, prices may fluctuate significantly and the volatility will be quite large. Simply put, this means that the uncertainty factors in the market have been resolved, and large funds may start to flow back from safe-haven assets led by gold into U.S. stocks or the cryptocurrency market, which are risk assets.

Then gold also began to rebound and recover after dropping over 8%. At this point, if we look at it in conjunction with $btc, it’s not hard to find that after $btc reaches a peak, they move almost completely in opposite directions. This phenomenon usually appears when the market is filled with various news, which means uncertainty is very high. It might not be this obvious usually. And when risks arise, or when risks are alleviated, the phenomenon of funds pouring into safe-haven assets and then starting to flow out into risk assets becomes clearly visible to the naked eye. We can sense the flow of large funds from their rises and falls.

Recently, gold is particularly worth paying attention to because, for the most part, gold's sensitivity to risk is higher. So if gold begins to adjust, it also indicates that the market's expectations for risk have decreased. At this time, it might just be a turning point for $btc to strengthen. Do you believe it?

[BTC Chip Distribution Situation] How to put it, relying on this for trading is definitely not feasible, it's only for reference. From the chart, we can see that the most recent chip range at the bottom is $104765-$107289, which also includes the third and sixth largest chip peaks on-chain, where chips are quite concentrated, and this concentration of chips forms a certain level of support. But can it break down here? Of course, it can, it just depends on how much strength the bears use to break through it.

If the strength is too much, it will just turn to decline, and the chips that originally served as support, which were still profitable at the current price, will have their nature transformed and become trapped chips, naturally putting pressure on future prices.

In areas with dense chips, trying to break through in one go is by no means easy. Thus, we see the rebound. But if the rebound can't go up and the bears continue to exert force, we need to see if it can still play a role next time. If it can, as the chips change hands, the concentration will increase, and its reference value will also rise. If it doesn’t work, then if it breaks down, areas with fewer chips in between won't naturally amount to much. Unless the operators clearly act without regard for cost in areas where chips are relatively scarce. However, at this time, there will likely be some news to accompany it. After all, nobody wants to engage in a losing trade.

If in the future it breaks down the sixth largest chip peak, then the densely concentrated area below comes to $93405-$98454. We will wait for this area to play a certain role.

Just two weeks ago, it was difficult to digest the most exaggerated retail selling wave since the beginning of this bull market, which coincided with $btc suddenly reaching a historical high. At that moment, in a very short time, an ancient super whale with a scale of over ten billion dollars suddenly made a large transfer, dumping more than 3,000 $btc and opening a massive short position at a high price. Shortly after, a tweet from Trump ignited the US-China tariff war, causing prices to start falling continuously and eventually plummeting. This led to a renewed wave of retail selling.

From the chart, we can see that around the price of 110,000 USD, the market's panic selling level reached an exaggerated point, almost arriving at the most extreme value again.

This means that when retail investors are very panicked and continuously selling, the big whales, regardless of the reason—possibly because of large funds in the market—tend to remain in safe-haven assets like gold during this period of high uncertainty, without flowing out, or it could be that the current price is not yet at a level satisfactory to the big whales. As long as the big whales have not started massively picking up these dumped chips, and the selling pressure from retail is still very heavy, it directly leads to a significant decrease in market liquidity. At this time, the price becomes very susceptible to various influences, especially from the whale that has been noted recently.

So why isn’t anyone buying this whale? Because as an individual, its volume is still relatively large. For example, BlackRock currently holds over 700,000, MicroStrategy over 600,000, while this whale initially held over 100,000. Alternatively, this whale has a sufficiently strong background and ample information sources, making various big players temporarily hesitant to act recklessly. The other on-chain big whales that dare to act cannot compete. Whales are not necessarily united; after all, addresses and operations are visible. For all these reasons, its position is difficult to shake. #币安HODLer空投TURTLE #加密市场回调 #比特币ETF恢复净流入

There are market voices indicating that, against the backdrop of tariff concerns and the ongoing U.S. shutdown, some large investors may be hedging against market downturns. Meanwhile, the driving force behind the crash on October 11th, a large short-selling whale, took action again last night. This whale, worth $11 billion, opened a short position valued at $227 million with an average entry price of $111,190 and a forced liquidation price of $123,270. As of now, the unrealized profit is about $6 million.

This whale not only used $30 million to open a short position but also transferred $220 million worth of $BTC to Coinbase in the past week. This whale is the ancient super whale often mentioned before, which converted about $5 billion worth of $BTC into $ETH. After being dormant, this entity has intermittently engaged in large-scale sell-offs since awakening, which is one of the main reasons why $BTC has struggled to rise in recent months.

As for the sudden surge last night, it may be due to the leaders of several European countries signing a joint statement supporting an immediate ceasefire and starting peace talks based on the current Russia-Ukraine front, with Ukrainian President Zelensky also signing the statement, leading to market expectations that the Russia-Ukraine war is about to cease.

Affected by the ceasefire expectations, safe-haven assets, led by gold, experienced a sharp short-term decline, marking the largest single-day drop since 2013. At this time, $BTC, which has been jumping back and forth between risk assets and safe-haven assets, was viewed as a risk asset again, leading to a rapid price surge.

As for why it dropped again afterward, one reason is the actions of the ancient super whale. Another is that Trump spoke again in the evening, suggesting that his meeting with us might be canceled, which adds more clouds to the China-U.S. trade relations.

Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine situation statement, although laying the foundation for peace talks, still lacks details, and Russia has not expressed its stance. Whether the talks will falter as before due to territorial distribution issues remains unknown. If they falter, it will be another repeated blow. #币安HODLer空投TURTLE #比特币ETF恢复净流入 #加密市场回调

As of the data up to yesterday, it includes less than 1 shrimp and more than 100 whales, which are in buying. Retail investors with 1 to 10 pieces and large investors with 10 to 100 pieces are in selling. Interestingly, unless on the 10.17 that day when whales dumped, it also caused a significant price drop, after which this has been three consecutive days that the giant whale addresses have been accumulating chips.

I believe that today's decline, the whale addresses are probably also in a state of accumulating, and the chips being absorbed mostly come from ordinary users who were forced to sell their chips due to the panic from the decline. After all, the decline that started last night was fast and fierce, and the short-term traders who bought during the previous rebound, whether they are currently in profit or loss, this type of decline is probably hard to bear.

In fact, the behind-the-scenes drivers of this round of decline are mostly those few ancient super whales who opened short positions at high levels, and most whales do not consider this crash as an extremely pessimistic signal. Therefore, in these few days, other large whales on the chain are also in a rebound process in terms of overall quantity and quality. #加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #中文Meme币热潮

The BTC Fear and Greed Index shows that just a few days ago, when the price was about to reach the critical level of 105000, most people in the market were almost in a state of extreme panic. The last time this happened was when it dropped to the lowest level of 74000.

Seeing this data, some may think, it's not too bad, but when considering the part that can reflect greater human fear and greed, which is the Binance funding rate, it has been a negative rate for 9 consecutive days. Moreover, it's not just that; since the price plummeted to the lowest level of 103500, until now, the total positions in Binance's contracts have been continuously growing. What does a negative funding rate combined with an increase in total positions mean?

This indicates that the number of people shorting in the market is indeed overwhelming. Many friends even feel that experiencing this continuous negative rate for 9 days is unprecedented. This is also a continuous extreme sentiment that has not even appeared in the most pessimistic bear markets in history. I believe this rare extreme situation should be very reassuring. After all, when the market is one-sided, it's best to avoid crowded places. Typically, once the reversal begins, they may actually turn into fuel for the price increase, right?

Well, this is a conclusion drawn from these data points. Don't blindly look to short; also be on guard for a bullish rebound at all times, especially when the current data is showing extremes. Later, we'll take a look at some changes among the whales. #加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

At the end of October, several major events may occur, including the latest statements on the China-U.S. tariff war, as well as expectations of a U.S. government shutdown, which will likely only have a chance to pass the budget by the end of the month. Most importantly, the next interest rate cut, which will be discussed in the meeting on October 29. Therefore, the opportunities in the next two weeks may be crucial.

Currently, the market generally believes that at the meeting on October 29, it is likely that a 25 basis point rate cut will be announced. Regardless, whether this interest rate cut expectation has already been priced in, the fact that the Federal Reserve can cut rates is already considered a positive. However, from the start of the rate cut to its transmission to the market, it usually takes more than six months. As long as there is a rate cut, the market will become increasingly wealthy. Therefore, the rate cut is definitely a positive for the medium to long-term risk market. As for whether there will be a good short-term feedback, such as an increase in prices around the time of the rate cut, I believe there is a significant possibility. So currently, whether the market's decline could be a washout action is something worth considering.

Of course, it’s the same old story; a rate cut itself is a positive, but what’s more critical is to see the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech at the meeting.

Now, is it possible to directly announce a 50 basis point cut? Some may have this hopeful idea, after all, if it were to be unprecedentedly announced, the market would definitely surge. However, regardless of my thoughts, the entire market is not really looking at the possibility of this round of rate cuts targeting a 50 basis point reduction. The main reason is that the current inflation control situation in the U.S. is still not optimistic. Goldman Sachs expects the overall and core CPI in September to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, which will keep the core inflation rate at around 3.1%. Morgan Stanley predicts that the core CPI in September will increase by 0.32% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.12%, and the overall CPI will rise by 0.41% month-on-month. #加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

Although the price of ETH is linked to BTC and is continuing to drop, interestingly, the number of whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH is constantly increasing. As of the data on October 16, the number of addresses has reached a historical high of 1,256. Of course, this increase in addresses does not exclude the possibility that some whales are spreading their funds across more addresses. But this is still a minority.

Currently, the trend is still in an overall increasing process. Even if there are times when it decreases, the duration is short, and it quickly increases again, continually setting new historical highs.

So, even though the price of ETH keeps falling, the fundamentals have not changed. This means that whales are using as many means as possible to force the market to relinquish its blood-stained chips for collection.

If one day we suddenly see a significant decline in the number of whale addresses, it is likely to indicate that the market trend is ending, ushering in an initial bear phase, or that we are already in the process of a bear market.

What we small fries can do is follow in the footsteps of the big players. #加密市场回调 #Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 #鲍威尔发言

In less than a month, there have been 3 waves of retail investor sell-offs. The latest data has only been updated to today at 01:00. In other words, as the price continues to slide smoothly downwards, we currently cannot see whether the 4th wave of sell-offs has begun. I believe it should have, but I don't know if it's extreme enough.

If retail investors experience another relatively extreme wave of sell-offs, I think this will be a relatively good opportunity for a phased bottom fishing. If it does not happen, and there are sell-offs but they are not aggressive or panic-driven enough, then that won't work. This indicates that these short-term traders, who are losing, have not lost enough to force them to sell their short-term positions. This means that the market has lower price levels still waiting for us. #加密市场回调 #Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 #鲍威尔发言

As of yesterday's data, it includes less than 1 shrimp, retail investors with 1 to 10, and whales with more than 100, who are buying. Large investors with 10 to 100 are selling. Overall yesterday, although the buying volume was somewhat abundant, whales were also buying, but this volume is insignificant compared to the large sell-off by whales on the 10.15 day. The quantity sold the day before yesterday was nearly equal to the total absorbed in the past few days, marking the largest sell-off in nearly two weeks. After the large-scale sell-off the day before yesterday, the price began to decline steadily.

As for today, will whales increase their buying as prices continue to drop? The current market state may be forcing addresses outside of whales to sell more chips, controlling the process of price decline in batches for absorption. However, I think this volume will still not be too large, especially since the large-scale sell-off by whales has just occurred. Unless the price is low enough to reach the anticipated price level in the whales' minds. At that time, I think the market will likely enter a state of extreme panic.

In short, when these short-term chips scattered in the market are swept up by whales in large quantities, only then will the market begin to catch its breath and slightly recover its vitality. As for now, from both the data and technical perspective, it is still too early. Let's continue to wait. #区块链 #Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 #美联储降息预期