📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated through 2025-11-01
Daily win-rate data for the scalping community shows the FGI–win-rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.11). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone continues to be the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Brief interpretation
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.75% — n=113
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.28% — n=130
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days exceeding the 44.99% average win rate by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 56.64% • Neutral 49.23% • Greed 44.39% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid pushing TP too far due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a strategy overhaul).
➤ FGI <20: small sample—handle with care; focus remains on order management.