10.23
Tesla's third-quarter earnings report fell short of expectations, triggering tension in the US stock market. Additionally, Trump's consideration of restrictions on software exports to China has increased pessimism in the market. The biggest challenge may come after the CME opens in the morning and whether the Chinese government will take more aggressive countermeasures.
Currently, the US stock market and BTC remain in a highly correlated trend, which means that the decline in the stock market will affect the price movement of Bitcoin, even though BTC itself does not have any negative news.
In terms of style attributes, Bitcoin is closer to high β + momentum assets. This means that when High Beta, AI Winners, Non-Profitable Tech, Retail Favorites, and Most Short Basket decline, BTC will also face pressure.
BTC is one of the first assets to rise and the first to be liquidated during risk appetite cycles. This is the fundamental reason why BTC has been falling in sync with AI Winners and Non-Profitable Tech in recent days.
In simple terms, BTC is still highly correlated with tech stocks; if tech stocks face setbacks and decline, BTC is not immune.
BTC
Yesterday, I reminded everyone to pay attention to another downward pin, as the weekly line has not adjusted properly. The current situation is the same; fortunately, the support at 106300 is in place. The price action in the next few days will be particularly critical. If it continues to hover around 106300 without breaking below, we should watch to see if a divergence can form on the four-hour level to stop the decline. In the short term, we still need time to stabilize. Within the day, the focus will remain on stabilization, keeping an eye on the strength of the rebound in the one-hour timeframe. Support levels are 106300-104500-103000, and resistance levels are 109000-111000.
ETH
Ethereum's daily and weekly lines have already reached the support zone, making the next few days particularly important. The four-hour triple bottom at 3745 has not yet broken; if this level holds, it presents a short-term opportunity. Support levels are 3745-3675-3380, and resistance levels are 3899-4060.
SOL
For Solana, we mentioned that 176 has not yet broken; if it holds, it presents an opportunity. Resistance is at 186-193.
