Current price (246.78) is just at the upper edge of the 70% transaction zone outside 242.9, with sell orders stacked above at 248-250, while the bullish value anchor POC is at 203.7. If it cannot quickly break through 248 in the short term, it is likely to be pulled back to the HVN buffer zone of 235-234 for fluctuation.
Key interval structure and transaction volume distribution
• Value anchor POC = 203.7 (2-week highest volume, 144 million USDT), 17% away from the current price — mid to long-term bullish cost zone.
• Upper HVN: 234.7 (92.73 million), 233.9 (87.24 million), forming the first buffer at 233-235; if it breaks below 233, the bearish target points directly to POC.
• LVN: 249.4-251.1 continuous low volume, only 1.08-1.72 million USDT/level, forming a 'vacuum zone', once volume breaks 251, can quickly rush to the 260 order wall.
• 70% trading area 199.6-242.9, current price is 1.6% outside the area, short-term has leaned towards 'overbought edge', chasing high cost performance is low.
Momentum verification and dominant direction
In the past 2 weeks, Up/Down Volume near POC is 0.528, neutral; however, 1h net flow -59.8k, 4h -189k, contract OI increased by 6.94% but the long-short ratio fell to 2.94, indicating 'increasing positions and dumping', short-term bears dominate.
Auxiliary judgment
1h Bollinger Bands 243.5-250.9, current price is close to the upper band; MA200 = 237.7, deviating +3.8%, momentum diverges from price, chasing highs needs to guard against a pullback to the middle band.
Order book anomalies
0.5% deep sell orders exceed 5.38 million USDT, hanging sell orders near 248 are 25.10 million, forming an immediate ceiling; the buy wall at 245.2-246.5 is only 1.3 million, easily breached.
Market cycle
In the 'large scale rise - small scale overbought' stage: long-term still in a 3-month bullish channel (+76%), but the 2-week VPVR shows prices have deviated from high trading areas, with a higher probability of 'oscillation or pullback'.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Short lightly at 248.0, stop-loss at 250.9 (upper band +0.5ATR), target 234.7 (first HVN), RR ≈ 2.1.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 234.7-235.1 to buy in batches, stop-loss at 232.3 (outside LVN), target 248, RR ≈ 2.6.
Cautious: If 233 is lost, short on a rebound to 235, stop-loss at 237.6, target POC 203.7, RR ≈ 4.0.
(ATR=2.0, Position ≤ 2x leverage, profit and loss ratio includes slippage 0.2%)
LP market making suggestion
Volatility 2.0 is relatively low, can place double track 1.5×ATR grid in the range of 234-248, with a spacing of 0.4%; note that the sell wall at 248 may spike instantly, reserve a 5% stop-loss buffer.
Risk and failure
If 1h volume breaks 251 and UpVolume > 60%, immediately abandon short positions; conversely, if the 233 support is breached by an entity bearish candle accompanied by a surge in OI, the probability of a pullback to POC rises to 70%, bulls should reduce positions.
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