The price is closely aligned at the upper edge of the high volume area of 3.02-3.04, RSI 34 is approaching oversold, contract funds have slightly flowed in but there is a net outflow of 8.44 million USDT within 12 hours. If it falls below 3.02 in the short term, it will retest POC at 2.817. Conversely, if it stabilizes above 3.04, it can look towards the low volume gap at 3.12.
【Key Interval Structure】
• Value Anchor (POC): 2.817 USDT, highest trading volume in 2 weeks is 366 million units, sufficient long and short turnover, breaking below is considered mid-term support.
• HVN Buffer Zone: 3.020-3.024 (355 million units) and 2.996-3.000 (315 million units), current price 3.078 is only 1.7% away from the upper edge, belonging to the edge of the 'high volume cliff', high probability of a pullback.
• LVN gap: 3.145-3.157 (only 43 million), once it breaks 3.12 (VAH) with volume, it can quickly touch 3.18.
• 70% trading range (VA) 2.793-3.114, current price is in the upper half 75% percentile, short-term not considered overbought, but deviates from POC by 9.3%, with mean reversion momentum.
[Momentum Validation]
• In the past 2 weeks, Up/Down Volume in the range of 3.02-3.04 has maintained 48-52%, neutrally balanced; below 2.817 POC area, buyers account for 54%, slightly advantageous.
• 1h level contract net flow -74k, sustained negative flow for 4h-12h, short-term bears dominate; however, spot net flow is only -334k, selling pressure is mild, main force has not yet offloaded significantly.
[Auxiliary Indicators]
• 1h Bollinger Bands: price is close to the lower band (16% position), lower band 3.067 overlaps with liquidity pool 3.0685, forming the first support; MA200 3.051 is far from VAL 2.793, medium-term trend still upward, but short-term divergence needs to be corrected.
• Positions: OI increased by 5.37% in 24h, long/short ratio changed from 2.64 to 3.36, longs are overcrowded and easily trigger reverse liquidations.
[Order Book Microstructure]
• Bid-ask spread is 1.63M (more buy orders), but the sell wall at 3.3-3.5 is 3.54-3.92 million USDT, short-term ceiling is clear; below, the buy wall at 2.8-3.0 is 1.68-2.82 million USDT, depth is acceptable.
[Market Cycle]
• 2 weeks VA moved up 6.8%, POC raised 3 times, belongs to 'oscillating upward' medium term; current price is in the upper 25% area of VA, if it drops below 3.02 short term, it will return to VAL 2.79 for the second leg, otherwise maintain a large range of 2.82-3.18.
[Trading Strategy]
Aggressive: Enter long after a dip to 3.020-3.024 HVN stops falling, stop loss at 3.014 (-0.5×ATR), target 3.114 (VAH), RR≈2.1.
Conservative: Wait for a drop below 3.02 and quickly recover before entering long again, stop loss at 2.996 (lower HVN edge), target the same 3.114, RR≈1.9.
Cautious: If it breaks down to 2.996 with volume and closes below 2.99 for 30min, reverse to short, stop loss at 3.012, target 2.817 (POC), RR≈2.3.
(ATR=0.0198, missing higher cycle data, stop loss range has been widened to 1σ)
[LP Market Making]
Recommend grid in the range of 2.996-3.085, each level 0.008-0.01 USDT, position 30%, narrow the spread to 0.003 in 3.020-3.024 HVN; if 1h trading volume > 1.2 million and breaks 3.12, move the range to 3.10-3.18, note that the slippage at 3.145 LVN can expand to 0.015.
[Risks and Failures]
• Key support 2.996 broken and 1h closed below 2.99, bullish structure invalidated.
• OI continues to surge >30% accompanied by price breaking 3.02, need to be wary of bullish stampede.
• Sudden macro regulations or sharp market drops can instantly pierce 2.817 POC, at which point all long positions should strictly stop loss.
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