Against the backdrop of the SEC's spot ETF policy breakthrough in the cryptocurrency market, XRP is standing at a critical crossroads in its development journey. According to the latest views from market analyst Pumpius, Ripple and XRP have laid the foundation for large-scale adoption over the years, and now they are迎来 'multiple catalysts exploding synchronously' — the Federal Reserve's entry, 20 ETF applications in queue, the progress of the CLARITY Act, and the layout of the RLUSD stablecoin, forming a resonance of four core positive factors that collectively shape the outline of 'XRP's conclusion.' Meanwhile, positive signals are coming from the technical side, with German analysts clearly bullish on XRP breaking through the crucial resistance level of $3.40, targeting the historical high of $3.90. The current price of $3.08 contrasts with multiple positive factors, creating a 'low valuation + high expectations' scenario, and XRP's market heat is continuing to rise.
1. Endgame catalysts resonance: Four major benefits reshaping XRP's ecological value.
This time, XRP is defined as being in a "key endgame stage," centered on the previously dispersed favorable factors, which have now formed a complete closed loop of "regulation - institutions - products - ecosystem." Each progress is paving the way for breaking through the existing value ceiling:
1. Federal Reserve access: Opening the doors of the traditional financial system, legalizing settlement functions.
For XRP, the direct access to the "Federal Reserve's main account" obtained by Ripple's affiliated banks and institutions is a crucial step in its transition from "crypto assets" to "traditional financial infrastructure." This access means that XRP's role in cross-border settlement will gain official recognition from the US financial system—previously, although Ripple's cross-border payment solutions had been deployed in many parts of the world, the lack of direct connection with the Federal Reserve made it difficult to penetrate the core settlement scenarios of mainstream banks in the United States. Now, through the main account, Ripple can directly participate in the Federal Reserve's payment clearing network, combining the "instant settlement" advantage of XRP with the compliance system of traditional banks, significantly reducing the time cost of cross-border payments (from the traditional 3-5 days to just a few minutes) and transaction fees (from 1%-3% to below 0.1%).
More importantly, this development will place XRP in "same-stage competition" with traditional clearing systems like SWIFT. According to Ripple's public data, its existing cross-border payment network already covers a market scale of $155 trillion. With the compliance endorsement brought by Federal Reserve access, it is expected that within the next 12 months, at least 20 regional banks in the U.S. will connect to the Ripple system and adopt XRP as a settlement medium, directly providing stable real demand support for XRP.
2. 20 ETF applications in queue: The channel for institutional funds to enter is about to open.
Following the SEC's approval of a universal standard for crypto spot ETFs, the XRP ETF sector has rapidly welcomed an "application boom." Analyst Pumpius pointed out that there are currently 20 XRP spot ETF applications submitted to U.S. regulators, covering traditional asset management giants such as BlackRock and Vanguard, as well as issuers focused on the crypto field like REX Shares and ProShares. This number far exceeds the initial application scale of Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting institutional enthusiasm for investing in XRP after regulatory compliance.
From the market impact perspective, the approval of the XRP ETF will fundamentally change its "institutional allocation difficulties"—traditional institutions such as pension funds and mutual funds were previously unable to hold XRP directly due to "regulatory uncertainty"; however, as a regulated standardized product, ETFs can be directly included in their asset allocation. Referring to the over $30 billion inflow in the first year after the Bitcoin ETF approval, the market expects that if XRP ETFs are approved in bulk, the first-year fund inflow could reach $5-8 billion. Based on the current circulating market cap of XRP, this would directly drive the price up by 15%-20%.
3. CLARITY Act advancement: Ending regulatory uncertainty and clearing obstacles for institutional entry.
For a long time, the biggest risk faced by XRP has been "regulatory ambiguity"—previously, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple on the grounds that "XRP is an unregistered security." Although a settlement was eventually reached, the "classification standard for digital assets" has still not been clarified. Now, the CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, is gaining increasing support in the U.S. Congress, especially after the SEC introduced a universal standard for crypto ETFs, the advancement of this act has clearly accelerated.
The core value of the CLARITY Act lies in "clarifying the classification boundaries of digital assets": distinguishing "crypto assets used for payments (such as XRP)" from "securities-type tokens" and clearly defining their "commodity attributes," thus eliminating the need for registration under securities rules. This adjustment will completely eliminate institutional concerns about "compliance" in holding XRP—previously, some institutions were hesitant to allocate large amounts even if they were optimistic about XRP due to worries about "future regulatory policy shifts." After the act is implemented, this uncertainty will be significantly reduced, and it is expected that more Wall Street institutions will join the ranks of XRP allocations.
4. RLUSD stablecoin: Perfecting the ecological closed loop, strengthening XRP's status as a bridge asset.
Ripple recently disclosed its RLUSD stablecoin plan, which, although not officially launched, has already been regarded as a "key supplement" to the XRP ecosystem. As a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio, RLUSD is not positioned as a "competitor to existing stablecoins," but rather as a means to "collaborate with XRP"—in cross-border payment scenarios, users can first convert fiat currency to RLUSD, quickly transfer it to the target market via the Ripple network, and then convert it back to local currency or use it directly; XRP acts as a "liquidity bridge," providing efficient exchange support between different stablecoins and fiat currencies, further strengthening its role as a "cross-chain settlement medium."
From an ecological perspective, the launch of RLUSD will expand Ripple's user coverage— for traditional enterprises with low-risk tolerance, the acceptance of stablecoins is higher than that of the volatile XRP. Through RLUSD's traffic, these enterprises will gradually become familiar with Ripple's technical system and are more likely to choose XRP as a long-term settlement tool in the future, forming an "ecosystem closed loop of stablecoin customer acquisition - XRP conversion."
2. Technical bullish outlook: $3.40 is a key breakthrough point, with German analysts targeting $3.90.
In addition to the favorable fundamentals, XRP's technical perspective is showing clear bullish signals. Currently, the trading price of XRP is $3.08, up 2.5% from last week, after a period of consolidation (oscillating in the $2.80-$3.20 range for nearly two weeks). The market has accumulated sufficient bullish momentum, with the renowned German analyst Xaif Crypto providing a clear prediction that "breaking through $3.40 will lead to a surge towards a new high of $3.90."
From a technical logic perspective, the key position of $3.40 is reflected in three aspects:
Resistance level accumulation: $3.40 is a key resistance level after the $3.65 peak in December 2024; the previous two attempts to break through fell back due to "insufficient buying power"; if this time it can break through with volume, it will form a "double-bottom breakout" pattern, confirming a trend reversal;
Liquidity node: Data from trading platforms indicates that a large number of "stop-loss buy orders" are concentrated around $3.40—this means investors are placing orders above $3.40, and once the price surpasses this level, these buy orders will automatically execute, creating a "buying frenzy" effect that drives the price up rapidly;
Sentiment critical point: $3.40 corresponds to XRP's "market cap regression line"—if this position is broken, XRP's market cap will return to above $130 billion, surpassing competitors like ADA and SOL, reclaiming the position of "third in crypto market cap," further boosting market confidence.
Xaif Crypto further analyzes that if XRP can stabilize at $3.40, the next target will directly look towards $3.65 (recent peak), and after breaking through, it is expected to surge towards the historical high of $3.90; the short-term support level is at $2.90 (the 50-day moving average), as long as it does not fall below this level, the bullish trend will not change. From a funding perspective, XRP's 24-hour trading volume has been increasing recently, rising from an average of $3 billion to $4.5 billion, indicating that incremental funds are entering the market, providing liquidity support for breaking through key resistance levels.
3. Outlook for the endgame: Opportunities and risks under multiple favorable conditions.
Currently, XRP is in the "endgame stage," which is both a period of concentrated opportunity release and hidden potential risks. Investors need to view this rationally:
Opportunities: From "concept speculation" to "value realization."
With the gradual landing of benefits such as Federal Reserve access, ETF applications, and the CLARITY Act, XRP is shifting from "relying on market sentiment speculation" to "driven by real demand"—the implementation of cross-border payment scenarios will bring stable usage demand, ETF approvals will attract institutional funds, and clear regulations will reduce risk premiums. These factors together constitute XRP's "value moat." In the long run, if Ripple can capture 1% of the $155 trillion cross-border payment market, the demand for XRP will grow significantly, supporting the price to advance to higher levels.
Risks: Short-term volatility and pressure to realize benefits.
In the short term, XRP faces two major risks: one is the "benefit realization pullback"—the current market has preemptively digested some positive expectations; if the follow-up ETF approval progress is slower than expected or the CLARITY Act advancement is hindered, it may trigger profit-taking, leading to price pullbacks; the second is the "market linkage risk"—the correlation between XRP and Bitcoin is still as high as 0.65; if Bitcoin experiences a significant pullback, XRP may also be dragged down, even if the fundamentals are favorable, it may be difficult to stand alone.
For investors, in the short term, it is important to focus on the breakthrough situation at $3.40; if there is a volume breakout, it may be appropriate to increase positions; in the long term, it is necessary to track Ripple's banking cooperation progress, the scale of ETF fund inflows, and other "fundamental data confirmation," avoiding blindly chasing highs driven only by sentiment.
If you want to get real-time updates on the XRP ETF application progress, collaboration dynamics after Federal Reserve access, and real-time interpretations of key technical points, please follow Crypto Old Dong. We will continue to track each key node in XRP's endgame phase to help you grasp opportunities accurately and avoid risks in this wave of market movements.
