For cryptocurrency traders, capturing early accumulation signals before a price increase has always been a challenging task— even whales holding a large amount of chips find it difficult to accurately predict short-term trends; however, when market sentiment towards altcoins gradually warms up, 'exchange reserves hitting new lows' often becomes a hidden positive signal. Behind this signal is a shift in investor mentality from 'short-term trading' to 'long-term holding,' and it is also a direct reflection of funds migrating from 'circulating supply' to 'locked supply.' Currently, in the market, three altcoins—PEPE, Jasmy, and SAND—are showing a combination of 'new lows in reserves + rising trading volume / favorable ecosystem.' Although the short-term prices have yet to explode, the long-term breakout potential is gradually emerging, making it worthy of traders' close attention.
1. PEPE: Backed by the Ethereum ecosystem + reserves hitting new lows, symmetrical triangle breakout awaits a catalyst.
As the leading meme coin on the Ethereum chain, PEPE has been in a consolidation phase since its explosive rise in 2023. However, the recent combination of 'innovative lows in exchange reserves + doubled trading volume' lays the groundwork for its breakout technical pattern.
1. Technical pattern: The large symmetrical triangle is narrowing; a breakout requires strong catalysts.
From the daily chart, PEPE has been operating within a 'large symmetrical triangle' since early 2025 – the upper bound connects the January high (0.0000025 USD) and the May high (0.0000022 USD), while the lower bound connects the February low (0.0000013 USD) and the July low (0.0000015 USD). The price fluctuation range continues to narrow, currently approaching the triangle's vertex (approximately 0.0000018 USD).
In technical analysis, a symmetrical triangle is considered a 'neutral consolidation pattern.' The direction of the breakout depends on 'strong catalysts' (such as positive news or capital inflow). Currently, the price increase of PEPE has not met market expectations, primarily due to a 'lack of catalysts' – although the overall performance of the Ethereum ecosystem is strong (ETH price stabilized above 4500 USD), PEPE lacks support from a 'new narrative,' making it difficult to break the consolidation pattern solely relying on 'meme coin enthusiasm.'
2. On-chain signals: Reserves hit annual lows, trading volume doubles to show vitality.
Santiment data shows that PEPE's exchange reserves fell to 938 trillion tokens in September (Note: the original unit 'trillion USD' is a typo, as PEPE is a low-priced meme coin, and the reserve unit is usually 'tokens'), marking an annual low for 2025, down 21% from the beginning of the year (1,200 trillion tokens); at the same time, PEPE's exchange trading volume last week exceeded 6 billion USD, doubling from the previous week (2.8 billion USD), forming a bullish combination of 'declining reserves + rising trading volume.'
The logic behind this combination is clear:
Declining reserves = Increased long-term holding willingness: Investors are transferring PEPE from exchanges to personal wallets, reducing short-term selling pressure. The market's circulating supply is shrinking, accumulating momentum for price increases.
Increased trading volume = Market attention resurfaces: Although prices haven't risen, the doubling of trading volume indicates intensified 'bull-bear competition.' Buying funds are beginning to test entry, and once key price levels are breached, it is likely to trigger follow-up buying.
3. Breakthrough opportunity: Need to bind Ethereum ecosystem positives or meme coin sector rotation.
For PEPE, the key to breaking the symmetrical triangle lies in 'binding external positive news': Firstly, further prosperity of the Ethereum ecosystem (such as reduced Layer-2 fees and increased DeFi activity) will drive overall enthusiasm for on-chain meme coins; secondly, the rotation of meme coin sectors – current market attention on meme coins is still focused on DOGE (due to ETF listings). If funds spill over from DOGE later, PEPE, as a leading asset, is expected to capture some of that flow.
In the short term, PEPE needs to stabilize above 0.0000019 USD (midline of the triangle) and break through 0.0000022 USD (upper bound) to confirm the upward trend; if it falls below 0.0000015 USD (lower bound), it may further retrace to 0.0000013 USD (annual low), requiring caution for breakdown risks.
2. Jasmy: Robotics industry narrative + growth in holders, 0.02 USD level awaits breakthrough.
Jasmy, with its differentiated narrative of 'robotics industry + IoT,' has recently shown positive changes in on-chain data and holder scale. Even though the price is still below 0.02 USD, the logic for long-term growth has gradually become clear.
1. Industry narrative: Optimistic expectations for the robotics industry empower token value.
The core value logic of Jasmy is deeply tied to the 'development of the robotics industry' – its underlying technology aims to provide 'data security storage and sharing solutions' for IoT devices (such as service robots, industrial sensors). With the rapid development of the global robotics industry (according to the International Federation of Robotics, the global industrial robotics market is expected to exceed 80 billion USD by 2025), Jasmy's application scenarios are expected to gradually materialize, providing fundamental support for token value.
This 'industry narrative' has attracted a large number of long-term investors – CoinMarketCap data shows that the number of Jasmy holders has increased from 86,000 at the beginning of 2025 to the current 96,000, a growth of 11.6%, with new holders primarily being 'small investors' (holding 100,000 - 1,000,000 tokens), indicating that the project's community base is continuously expanding rather than relying on a few whale holders.
2. On-chain data: Reserves have been declining for a year, with bullish signals continuing to accumulate.
Santiment data shows that Jasmy's exchange reserves fell to 10.1 billion tokens in September, marking a new low for the year, and the trend of 'continuously declining reserves' has persisted for a full year – down from 18 billion tokens in September 2024 to the current 10.1 billion tokens, a decrease of 43.9%.
The long-term decline in reserves reflects investors' 'long-term confidence' in Jasmy: On one hand, early holders are unwilling to sell at low prices, choosing to transfer tokens to wallets for long-term holding; on the other hand, new investors are more inclined to 'stake to participate in the ecosystem' (such as staking Jasmy's IoT device data nodes) rather than engaging in short-term trading, further reducing circulating supply.
3. Price outlook: Five-wave rebound targets 0.30 USD, needing to break 0.02 USD in the short term.
Market analyst CryptoMobese holds an optimistic view on Jasmy's price trend. In the latest analysis, they pointed out that Jasmy is currently at the 'end of the first wave of a five-wave upward structure.' If it can break through the 0.02 USD level (the upper bound of the range in the past three months), it will open the second wave of the rise, targeting a price of 0.05 USD. If the ecosystem rollout goes smoothly afterward, following the completion of the five-wave rebound, the price is expected to break through 0.30 USD, rising more than 15 times from the current price (approximately 0.018 USD).
From a short-term technical perspective, Jasmy's key support level is at 0.015 USD (50-day moving average). If it can hold this position, the probability of breaking through 0.02 USD is high; if it falls below 0.015 USD, it may retrace to 0.012 USD (100-day moving average). However, in the long term, as the narrative of the robotics industry strengthens, any retracement still presents an opportunity for positioning.
3. Sandbox (SAND): Metaverse ecosystem activation + new lows in reserves, Alpha Season 6 as a breakthrough catalyst.
Sandbox (SAND), as the leading token in the metaverse track, has recently regained market attention due to 'ecological activities landing + declining exchange reserves.' Although its price is in a triangular consolidation phase, the revival of the metaverse ecosystem's vitality provides a strong catalyst for future breakthroughs.
1. Ecosystem positives: Alpha Season 6 launched, 250,000 SAND bonus pool activates users.
In September, Sandbox officially announced the launch of the 'Alpha Season 6' activity, introducing a bonus pool of 250,000 SAND (approximately 500,000 USD) to attract users for tasks such as 'metaverse scene building' and 'virtual asset creation' – after completing tasks, users can not only receive SAND rewards but also sell their created virtual assets in the Sandbox market, forming an 'earn while participating' ecological loop.
This activity directly activated the ecological vitality of Sandbox: In the first week after the event launched, the daily active users (DAU) of Sandbox's metaverse increased from 50,000 to 85,000, a growth of 70%; the virtual land trading volume also doubled from 1.5 million USD per week to 2.8 million USD. The increase in ecological activity directly drives the 'practical demand' for SAND – users need to hold SAND to participate in tasks and purchase virtual assets, providing actual support for token value.
2. On-chain dynamics: Reserves approaching yearly lows, with a quarterly outflow of 850 million SAND.
Santiment data shows that the exchange reserves of Sandbox fell to near annual low levels in September. In this quarter alone (July-September), 850 million SAND flowed out from exchanges, most of which were transferred by users to Sandbox ecological wallets for activities such as 'virtual land staking' and 'scene building staking.'
The decline in reserves is directly related to the 'growth of practical demand' in the Sandbox ecosystem: With the launch of Alpha Season 6, more and more users are choosing to transfer SAND from exchanges to participate in the ecosystem for long-term gains rather than short-term trading. This kind of fund migration from circulating supply to ecosystem supply not only reduces selling pressure but also enhances the 'ecological stickiness' of the token, laying the foundation for price increases.
3. Technical pattern: Triangular consolidation awaits breakout, ecosystem data is key.
From the daily chart, the current price trend of Sandbox is similar to PEPE, in a 'triangular consolidation pattern' – the upper bound connects the June high (0.85 USD) and the August high (0.78 USD), while the lower bound connects the July low (0.52 USD) and the September low (0.55 USD). The current price is oscillating around 0.65 USD, close to the end of the consolidation.
The key to Sandbox breaking out of the triangular pattern lies in 'the ecological data of Alpha Season 6': If the daily active users and virtual asset trading volume can continue to grow, it will validate the 'real vitality' of the ecosystem and attract external funds; conversely, if the activity's heat fades, it may prolong the consolidation period.
In the short term, the key resistance level for Sandbox is 0.75 USD (triangle upper bound), with support at 0.55 USD (triangle lower bound); long-term, if it breaks 0.75 USD, the next target is 1.2 USD (2024 high). If the ecosystem continues to thrive, it may challenge the 2 USD mark.
4. Summary: A guide to 'recognition and operation' of early signals in altcoins.
The cases of PEPE, Jasmy, and Sandbox illustrate that the 'early accumulation signal' of altcoins is not a single indicator but a combination of 'declining exchange reserves + trading volume/ecosystem data rising + technical pattern consolidation.' For traders, capturing these signals requires attention to three points:
Distinguish between 'short-term speculation' and 'long-term value': If declining reserves are accompanied by 'ecosystem rollout, user growth,' it is a signal of long-term value (such as Jasmy, Sandbox); if relying solely on meme enthusiasm (such as PEPE), be wary of 'short-term speculation without fundamental support' and set strict stop-losses.
Technical patterns resonate with on-chain signals: When reserves hit new lows, trading volume increases, and technical patterns such as 'triangle consolidation and moving average support' coincide, the probability of a breakout is higher (e.g., Sandbox's Alpha activity + triangular formation), making entry risks lower.
Control positions and layout in batches: Altcoins are highly volatile, and even with clear signals, position control is necessary (no single asset should exceed 5% of total funds). When retracing to key support levels, build positions in batches to avoid full positions chasing highs.
Currently, market sentiment towards altcoins is gradually warming, with more and more tokens exhibiting characteristics of 'declining reserves + potential breakthroughs.' Besides the aforementioned three, traders can also pay attention to other assets showing 'new lows in reserves + favorable ecosystem' (such as APT, ARB, etc.). If you want to continuously track the on-chain data, technical pattern changes, and latest ecosystem dynamics of these altcoins, and obtain timely operational advice, follow Crypto Old Dong. In the future, we will bring you deeper interpretations of altcoin signals and market analysis to help you precisely capture early opportunities and avoid risks during the altcoin season.
