Currently, Ethereum (ETH) is deeply entrenched in a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears. As of today, ETH is oscillating narrowly around $4533, though it barely holds the core support area of $4500, a slight pullback has already occurred during the day. Market focus is highly concentrated on two major directions: if the bulls can consolidate their strength to break through the resistance level of $4650, it will confirm the continuation of the short-term upward trend; if the bears gain the upper hand, ETH may be dragged back to the high liquidity area near $4480, returning to a consolidation pattern. From the perspective of technical formation, on-chain capital movements, and fundamentals (Fu-Saka upgrade), ETH currently exhibits characteristics of "short-term cautious entanglement, long-term bullish support". Investors need to closely monitor the effectiveness of key price level breakthroughs to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations.
1. Technical analysis: The rising trendline 'escorts' while $4500 serves as the 'lifeline' for bulls and bears.
From the 4-hour K-line chart, the upward structure of ETH that started in early September has not been broken. The support of the trendline and the moving average system together construct a short-term price 'safety cushion,' but the resistance around $4650 is also strong. The game between bulls and bears in the narrow range has entered a critical stage.
1. Trendline and moving average: $4500 = support center, 50-day moving average becomes the 'last line of defense.'
The current support system for ETH consists of two key technical lines, which have been validated by the market:
Effectiveness of the rising trendline: This trendline connecting the lows of September 1 ($4280), September 10 ($4420), and September 18 ($4480) currently corresponds to the price of $4500. Since September 15, ETH has dipped into this area three times—on September 16 it hit a low of $4495, on September 18 it reached $4488, and on September 20 it touched $4492. Each time, it was quickly pulled up by buying pressure, and trading volume shrank during pullbacks (minimum was only 60% of the average daily trading volume), sufficient to prove that the bullish strength near $4500 is strong, becoming a short-term 'bullish lifeline.'
The synergy of the moving average system provides support: The 20-day moving average is currently at $4531, nearly coinciding with the current price of $4533, forming a pattern of 'price tightly hugging the short-term moving average.' This pattern usually indicates that the short-term trend is in the 'oscillation and accumulation' stage, with no clear direction yet; more critically, the 50-day moving average ($4492) is highly coincident with the $4500 support level. If ETH unexpectedly falls below $4500, the 50-day moving average will become the 'second line of defense.' If this level is lost, it will trigger further risks of a pullback to the $4480 high liquidity area.
It is worth noting that the 200-day moving average remains stable at $4383 and continues to rise, which clearly indicates that ETH's 'long-term bullish cycle has not been broken'—even facing short-term pullbacks, from a medium- to long-term perspective, the price remains in an upward channel. The upward trend of the 200-day moving average provides underlying support for subsequent movements, avoiding misjudgments about long-term directions due to short-term fluctuations.
2. RSI neutral + clear resistance: $4650-4665 becomes the 'breakthrough threshold.'
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers around 52, in the 'absolutely neutral range,' and this state accurately reflects the current market sentiment's caution:
Looking back to September 12, the ETH RSI once climbed to an overbought range of 72, and then the price retraced from $4665 to $4488, with the RSI simultaneously retreating to 48. The current value of 52 indicates that 'previous overbought pressure has been completely released, and the forces of bulls and bears have returned to balance.'
If the subsequent RSI can break above 55 along with the price increase and remain above it for three consecutive 4-hour cycles, it will be regarded as a signal of 'bullish sentiment heating up,' providing momentum for breaking through resistance levels; conversely, if the RSI drops below 45, caution should be exercised as the risk of a pullback may increase.
From the perspective of resistance levels, ETH faces 'double pressure' in the short term: The first is $4650 (the upper edge of the recent oscillation range, which was touched on September 15 before retreating, with the highest that day only reaching $4652 before encountering resistance); the second is $4665 (the recent high on September 12, and also the position where the 20-day moving average and the previous oscillation platform coincide). Analysts generally believe that for ETH to confirm a short-term upward trend, two conditions must be met: First, the 4-hour closing price must break above $4665, and second, the trading volume at the breakout must exceed 1.3 times the average daily trading volume (the current average daily trading volume is about $2.8 billion, needing to reach over $3.6 billion); if either condition is lacking—if it only breaks $4650 without breaking $4665, or if the trading volume is insufficient at the breakout—it is likely to be a 'false breakout,' which could lead to profit-taking.
2. On-chain funding situation: Net outflow reduction indicates caution, while the futures market lacks 'bullish confidence.'
On-chain fund flows and derivatives data further confirm the current market's 'cautious sentiment'—despite signs of long-term accumulation in the spot market, there is a lack of sustained incremental funds, and there are no clear bullish signals in the futures market, making it difficult for the short-term trend to break through the oscillation range.
1. Spot funds: 'Fragmented accumulation' is hard to support breakthroughs
According to Coinglass's exchange flow data, on September 19, ETH saw a net outflow of $28.36 million. This data needs to be interpreted objectively in the historical context to avoid one-sided judgments:
Positive signal: Reduced outflow ≠ sell-off: Net outflow itself is a behavior of 'funds moving from exchanges to personal wallets,' belonging to 'long-term accumulation' rather than short-term sell-off, and the scale of $28.36 million, significantly smaller than the highest net outflow of $120 million in a single week in July and $80 million in August, indicates that the current market selling pressure has been greatly alleviated, and long-term investors are beginning to gradually build positions.
Negative signal: Lack of consistency in accumulation: Since September, ETH's exchange fund flows have shown 'repetitiveness'—net outflow of $15 million on September 17, net inflow of $8 million on September 18, net outflow of $28.36 million on September 19, and net inflow of $5 million on September 20. This pattern of 'alternating daily inflows/outflows' indicates that investors have significant divergences regarding short-term trends and have not formed a 'consensus on consistent accumulation,' making it difficult to concentrate funds to break through the $4650 resistance.
From the changes in exchange inventory, the current ETH exchange position has decreased by about 5% compared to early September (from 12 million to 11.4 million), but it is still at the average level of the past 3 months (11-12.5 million), with no signs of 'large-scale de-inventory' (which usually indicates strong accumulation, requiring a decrease in holdings of more than 10%), further reflecting the market mentality of 'cautious accumulation rather than aggressive layout.'
2. Futures market: Balance between bulls and bears, low volatility.
The data from the ETH futures market also shows a 'neutral and cautious' characteristic, making it difficult to provide directional support for the short-term trend:
Open interest (OI) stabilizes but does not increase: Currently, ETH futures OI is stable at around $12 billion, slightly up from $11.5 billion in mid-September, but far below the $13.5 billion in late August, indicating a 'cooling enthusiasm for leveraged trading' in the market—both bulls and bears are unwilling to increase positions on a large scale, fearing being 'hit back and forth' in the oscillation range. This mentality has led to a continuous low volatility in the short term (the volatility over the past 7 days has been only 8%, below the 3-month average of 12%).
Funding rate slightly positive, no clear direction: Currently, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts is 0.01%, in a 'slightly positive range,' with neither a significant positive rate above 0.05% (indicating bullish dominance) nor a negative rate (indicating bearish dominance), reflecting a complete balance of bullish and bearish forces in the futures market, lacking clear directional guidance.
Whale addresses remain unchanged: Addresses holding 10,000 - 100,000 ETH (typically institutions or large holders) have seen less than 1% change in holdings over the past week, with neither significant accumulation (over 5,000) nor significant reduction. This 'staying put' state further validates the market situation of 'institutional investors on the sidelines.'
In summary, the current on-chain funding situation lacks 'strong driving signals.' If there are no incremental funds (such as institutions making large purchases of ETH ETFs or Layer-2 projects significantly increasing positions) entering subsequently, ETH is likely to continue to oscillate in the $4500-4650 range. The breakthrough at the $4650 resistance level needs to wait for the 'resonance of funding and sentiment.'
3. Fundamentals: The Fusaka upgrade serves as a 'long-term booster,' but in the short term, we need to guard against 'positive news being priced in early.'
Although the short-term trend is cautious, Ethereum's fundamentals are welcoming a key positive—specifically, the Fusaka mainnet upgrade scheduled to start on December 3, which is viewed by the market as a 'core opportunity to address scalability issues and solidify the settlement layer position,' providing solid support for ETH's long-term value. However, in the short term, vigilance against the risk of 'positive news being priced in early' is necessary.
1. The core value of the Fusaka upgrade: Blob doubles + Layer-2 ecosystem explosion.
The core goal of the Fusaka upgrade is 'to enhance Ethereum's network data capacity and throughput,' specifically achieved through two BPO (Blob Production Optimization) forks, which will have a 'fundamental' impact on the ecosystem.
Blob capacity doubles, Layer-2 costs significantly decrease: After the upgrade, the Blob data capacity of each Ethereum block will increase from 16MB to 32MB, and the Blob is a key carrier for Layer-2 (such as Optimism, Arbitrum, Base) to store transaction data—doubling the capacity means that the number of transactions that Layer-2 can handle will directly double, and data storage costs will decrease by about 40%. For example, in Arbitrum, the current cost of a single transfer is about $0.5, and after the upgrade, it is expected to drop below $0.3, significantly improving user experience and further accelerating Layer-2's adoption.
Settlement layer position further solidified: With the prosperity of the Layer-2 ecosystem, all Layer-2 transactions must ultimately be confirmed on the Ethereum mainnet. The Fusaka upgrade clears obstacles for the large-scale expansion of Layer-2 by enhancing data processing capabilities, forming a virtuous ecological cycle of 'mainnet responsible for secure settlement + Layer-2 responsible for high-frequency trading,' further consolidating Ethereum's position as the 'core settlement layer of the blockchain industry.'
Phased testing ensures safety: To reduce upgrade risks, the Fusaka upgrade will start phased testing from October: the first BPO fork will be launched on the Holesky testnet on October 8, the second fork will be promoted on the Sepolia testnet on October 22, and the final verification will be completed on the Hoodi testnet on November 15, ensuring that the mainnet upgrade on December 3 is foolproof and avoiding the repetition of 'network interruptions.'
2. Impact on ETH's value: Long-term demand growth, short-term vigilance against 'expectations being fulfilled.'
The value enhancement of ETH from the Fusaka upgrade will gradually manifest through 'long-term demand growth,' but in the short term, vigilance against the risk of 'positive news being priced in early' is necessary:
Long-term: Ecological demand drives ETH value reassessment: The prosperity of Layer-2 will pull ETH demand from two dimensions: first, Layer-2 projects need to hold ETH as 'data storage collateral.' As Layer-2 TVL (Total Value Locked) increases, this part of ETH demand will rise in sync (institutions predict that Layer-2 TVL will exceed $500 billion by 2026, a 200% increase from the current level); second, more users using Layer-2 will indirectly promote ETH's adoption rate, attracting more institutions to allocate ETH as a 'core blockchain asset.' Currently, institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock have mentioned in reports that the Fusaka upgrade may become a catalyst for ETH 'to be included in more compliant financial products,' with the long-term potential to increase ETH's institutional holding ratio from the current 3% to over 5%;
Short-term: Beware of 'early speculation of positive news': Historical experience shows that the crypto market often 'speculates positively in advance'—for example, before the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade in 2023, ETH rose from $1200 to $2100, but after the upgrade was implemented, it retraced to $1700. Currently, there are still more than two months until the Fusaka upgrade. If ETH quickly breaks through $4665 in the short term, it is likely to be 'anticipating the upgrade benefits,' and a 'sell-off' may occur after the December upgrade implementation. Investors need to rationally view short-term gains and avoid blindly chasing highs.
4. Analyst views and operational strategies: Short-term range trading, long-term anchoring on the upgrade.
Combining technical, funding, and fundamental analyses, market analysts have reached a consensus on ETH's short-term and long-term trends. Investors can choose differentiated strategies based on their risk preferences to avoid missing short-term opportunities while also preventing long-term losses.
1. Short-term strategy: Focus on range trading, chase the upswing after a breakout.
For the short-term (1-2 weeks) trend, market strategists like Ted Pillows and other mainstream analysts recommend 'range trading with strict risk control,' with the core logic being 'do not predict breakthrough directions, just follow breakthrough signals':
Bullish signal for bulls: If ETH stabilizes in the $4500-4520 range, and two key signals appear—first, a 'hammer' or 'bullish engulfing' reversal pattern appears in the 4-hour K-line, and second, the RSI rises above 55 and holds steady, a small position can be established (not exceeding 10% of total funds), with stop loss set below $4480 (breaking below the high liquidity area indicates support failure), with the initial target of $4650, and if it breaks through with increased trading volume, chase up to $4665.
Short signal for bears: If ETH fails to break through $4650 and shows formations like 'shooting star' or 'bearish engulfing' while the trading volume shrinks (less than 80% of the average daily trading volume), a small short position can be established (not exceeding 8% of total funds), with stop loss set above $4670 (breaking the recent high indicates bullish strength), targeting $4500, and if that breaks, look down to $4480.
Risk warning: In the current oscillation range, 'chasing highs and cutting losses' is strictly prohibited—such as chasing long positions at $4640 and short positions at $4510; such operations are easily stopped out by short-term fluctuations, so patience is needed to wait for clear breakthrough signals.
2. Long-term strategy: Layout during pullbacks, anchoring the upgrade dividend
For the long-term (3-6 months) trend, analysts are generally optimistic about ETH's upside potential, suggesting 'laying out quality chips during pullbacks,' with the core being 'ignoring short-term oscillations and grasping long-term trends':
Ideal layout range: If ETH drops to the $4400-4450 range due to a short-term pullback (the 'safe area' between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages), it can be accumulated in batches—initially building a 10% position, and if it drops to $4383 (the 200-day moving average), add another 10%. Total position control should be between 20%-30%, with a holding period set for 3-6 months, initially targeting $4880 (the July high), and if the Fusaka upgrade leads to Layer-2 TVL growth exceeding expectations, look up to the $5000 integer level.
Key tracking indicators: Long-term investors need to focus on two data points—first, the progress of the October testnet upgrade (if the Holesky and Sepolia testnets upgrade smoothly without technical issues, long-term holdings can be firmly maintained; if there are delays or vulnerabilities, expectations need to be adjusted), and second, the weekly average growth rate of Layer-2 TVL (if after the testnet upgrade, Layer-2 TVL weekly growth exceeds 10%, it indicates a positive market reaction to the upgrade, validating long-term logic).
5. Summary: Short-term gaming awaits resolution, long-term upgrades determine direction.
Currently, ETH is in a critical stage of 'short-term oscillation accumulation, long-term positive brewing': The $4500 support and $4650 resistance form a short-term gaming range, and the cautious sentiment of on-chain funds makes it difficult for the price to break through; however, the long-term positive of the Fusaka upgrade provides value support for ETH. If the mainnet goes live in December and can achieve 'Blob capacity doubling + Layer-2 ecosystem prosperity,' it is expected to open a new round of upward trend.
For investors, in the short term, focus on the 'validity of the $4500 support' and 'momentum for breaking $4665,' to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations; in the long term, one can accumulate during pullbacks and grasp the long-term dividends brought by technological upgrades. It is essential to remember that the crypto market is highly volatile, and whether for short-term trading or long-term positioning, one must manage positions (individual stock positions should not exceed 30%) and control risks to avoid disrupting investment plans due to a single event or price fluctuation.
If you want to continuously track ETH's price dynamics, the progress of the Fusaka upgrade testnet, and Layer-2 ecosystem data, and receive timely operational suggestions, follow Crypto Old Dong, who will bring you deeper ETH market interpretations and industry analyses, helping you grasp the rhythm and avoid risks in volatile markets and seize opportunities in long-term trends.
