According to Cointelegraph, XRP has encountered challenges in maintaining its upward momentum after an 18% rally in early September, which saw the token rise from $2.70 to $3.18. Despite this increase, XRP struggled to surpass the $3.20 mark, facing rejection at a critical resistance level and subsequently falling back to test the $3 support. This setback was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, which failed to propel XRP above $3.18, leading to continued short-term weakness and another test of the $3 level. Additionally, XRP is finding it difficult to stay above the 50-day simple moving average, contributing to increased selling pressure.
Futures trader DOM noted the importance of the $3.12 level, which bulls failed to hold earlier in the week. This level is crucial for a potential push towards $3.30, with the immediate resistance now set at $3.30. For any significant upward movement, bulls need to reclaim the $3.18 level. Despite these challenges, broader market indicators suggest a sustained bullish outlook for XRP. Onchain data reveals a strong accumulation trend between $2.70 and $3.00, indicating that investors are positioning for potential gains rather than exiting the market. This accumulation is supported by a positive Net Holder position change since August 22, following a period of profit-taking in July and early August.
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio also highlights a transition phase, with July experiencing the most significant profit-taking of the cycle, leading to a subsequent decline. However, the ratio has recently shown a sharp increase, the strongest since November 2024, suggesting that much of the earlier selling pressure has been absorbed. This, combined with the net holders' accumulation, points to a constructive long-term outlook for XRP. Furthermore, XRP's market fractal pattern remains a bullish indicator. The current setup aligns with the Q1 structure, with the $2.70 low matching the Fibonacci golden pocket. This fractal suggests that XRP is following its expected cycle pattern, potentially setting the stage for a 60–85% rally in Q4, which could see XRP reach the $5.00-$5.50 range from its current level of $3.
